THE THE BR BREAKTH AKTHROUGH ROUGH OF OF PH PHOT OTOVOLTAI OVOLTAICS CS Alessandro Massi Pavan Manchester October 18 th , 2017
ENE NERGY GY: : A KE KEY GL Y GLOB OBAL L CH CHALLENGE ENGE “Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21 st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security” st century, “Yet, more ore tha than a dec decade ade int nto the the 21 21 st century, cur current rent ene nerg rgy sy syst stem ems do do no not meet th these se challenges” “ A maj major or tra ransfor nsforma mation tion is is req require uired to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems” Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
OU OUTL TLIN INE Introduction (a boom in RES) Five causes of the boom The role of photovoltaics History and breakthrough of PV The future of photovoltaics Conclusions Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
A BOO BOOM I M IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES RES ES: 2.0TW TW COAL AL: 1.9TW TW GAS: 1.5TW TW NUCLEAR CLEAR: 0.4TW TW http://resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/?topic=4&subTopic=16 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
A BOOM BOOM I IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES IRENA A roadmap for a renewable energy future, 2016 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
A BOO BOOM I M IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
TR TRAN ANSF SFOR ORMA MATI TION ON HAS AS ST STAR ARTE TED! D! - Electricity is the fastest-growing final form of energy and the power sector contributes more than any other to the reduction in the share of fossil fuels - More than half (56%) (120GW) of the world’s new electric generating capacity added in 2013 was renewable (72% in EU) - 2013: Chin ina ’s new renewable power capacity surpassed new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity for the first time (38% in 2010) REN21, 2013 and 2014, REN 23, 2014 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 IRENA Renewable power generation costs in 2014 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
ENE NERGY GY TRANSI NSITIONS TIONS biomass World energy consumption coal oil Year Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
OU OUTL TLIN INE Introduction (a boom in RES) Five causes of the boom The role of photovoltaics History and breakthrough of PV The future of photovoltaics Conclusions Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
SC SCAR ARCITY CITY OF OF NAT NATURA URAL L RE RESO SOUR URCES CES Average Oil Demand (2013-2035): 100 YEARS TO GO ARE 2,704/100 = 27!!! World Oil Outlook – OPEC 2012 Total reserves: 2,704 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
CL CLIM IMAT ATE CH E CHAN ANGE GE Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
QU QUAL ALIT ITY Y OF OF LI LIFE Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
DR DROP OP IN IN RE RES C S COS OSTS TS Solar and nuclear costs – the historic crossover J.O. Blackburn, S. Cunningham 2011 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
DR DROP OP IN IN RE RES S CO COST STS International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) PRIS database Chart by Carbon Brief Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
FAC ACTO TORS RS OF OF CH CHAN ANGE GE SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE QUALITY OF LIFE DROP IN RES COSTS SPE PEED ED OF OF INS NSTALLATION!!! TALLATION!!! Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
FUT UTUR URE EN E ENER ERGY GY MI MIX Global Energy Assessment (GEA), 2013 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 IRENA Renewable power generation costs in 2014 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
OU OUTL TLIN INE Introduction (a boom in RES) Five causes of the boom The role of photovoltaics History and breakthrough of PV The future of photovoltaics Conclusions Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
TH THE R E ROL OLE OF E OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOL OLTA TAICS ICS Inv nvestm stments ents in 2 n 2014 14 IRENA, Renewable power generation costs in 2014 Aver erage age an annu nual al growth wth rat ates s of world d renew newables ables from 1990 90 to 2015 15 IEA, Renewables information: overview statistics, 2017 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
TH THE R E ROL OLE OF E OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOL OLTA TAICS ICS IRENA Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2015 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
UN UNLIM IMIT ITED ED EN ENER ERGY Y SO SOUR URCE CE Perez R, Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. IEA 2009 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
AN «A «ANCIE IENT NT ID IDEA» Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
ADVA VANTAGES NTAGES OF OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOLTA OLTAICS ICS Fuel source is vast and essentially infinite Very low O&M costs Relatability and durability Easy and quick installation Modular technology No moving parts (no noise) No emissions Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
ADVA VANTAGES NTAGES OF OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOLTA OLTAICS ICS Can be integrated into new and existing buildings High public acceptance New distributed and no specialized jobs Choice and control Daily output peak can match the local demand Distributed generation (can be installed at nearly any point-of-use) Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
FAL ALSE SE MY MYTH THS PV is too expensive PV modules never recover the energy required in making them No more R&D is needed PV requires too much land to ever meet significant fraction of world needs PV industry is polluting PV efficiency is a problem Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER WORLD LD EUR UROPE OPE Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER WORLD LD CHIN INA JAPAN AN Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER UK UK https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment IT ITALY www.gse.it Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
PV ELECTR TRICITY TY IN SI SIX CO X COUN UNTR TRIES Renewables information: overview statistics, 2017 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
PV POW OWER ER PER ER CA CAPIT ITA A (2 (201 016) 6) COUNTRY RY Install lled d Populat ation ion Wp/per capita Growth (%) Power [GW] [Milli lion ons] Germany 42 81 518 4 Italy 19 60 317 2 Japan 28 127 220 25 Europe 149 742 200 5 UK 13 66 197 20 USA 40 319 125 58 China 78 1360 57 79 India 9 1250 7 79 ----------- ------ ------ --- --- World ld 302 302 7571 7571 40 40 32 32 Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
GROU OUND-MO MOUNTE UNTED D PV SY SYST STEM EMS 2000 – 0.02MW 2000 MW 2008 2008 – 1MW 2017 2017 – 1,000MW MW Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 www.pvresources.com - http://www.q-cells.com/en/ ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
C& C&I RO I ROOF OFTO TOP PV SY SYST STEM EMS www.pvresources.com http://www.riverclack.com/ Courtesy of Barbara Terreni Hanwa Q Cells Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
OU OUTL TLIN INE Introduction (a boom in RES) Five causes of the boom The role of photovoltaics History and breakthrough of PV The future of photovoltaics Conclusions Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
HIS ISTO TORY RY OF OF P PHOT OTOV OVOLT OLTAI AICS CS 1955, 1975, 1995, … 2015 marks a fundamental milestone in the history of PV: THE GR GRID ID PARITY PARITY and the FUEL PARITY RITY occurring in many countries of the world!!! Manchester - October 18 th , 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV
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