Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband: IMT for the Next Decade 1) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband: IMT for the Next Decade 1) IMT History 2) New Developments 3) Market estimates 4) ITU-R Action, Next Steps Sources: Presentation: Spectrum considerations for global broadband access; Colin Langtry, Chief, ITU-R Study Groups Dept.; Presentation: Introduction to ITU-R WP5D Regional Workshop (Region 3), Kyu-Jin WEE Ph.D, Vice-Chairman, ITU-R WP5D; http://groups.itu.int/rsg5-forum/SG5Portal/RegionalWorkshopsIMTfortheNextDecade/AsiaPacificWorkshop/Presentations.aspx

1 IMT History Radio history: Maxwell equation: 1865 Marconi radio communication: ~ 1900 Radio broadcasting: ~ 1920 TV broadcasting: ~ 1931 Satellite: 1957 Cellular mobile communication: ~ 1981

1 IMT History W(A)RC history: WARC Mar Maritime Mobile Service (Geneva, 1967) WARC- 68 Aeronautical Mobile Service WARC-71 Space Telecommunications WMARC-74 World Maritime Administrative Radio Conference WARC SAT-77 World Broadcasting-Satellite Administrative Radio Conference WARC-Aer2 Aeronautical Mobile (R) Services (Geneva, 1978) WARC-79 Overall Revision of RR (Sep.24 – Dec. 6) WARC Mob-83 Mobile Service WARC HFBC-84 Planning HF Broadcasting WARC Orb-85 Geostationary Satellite Orbit WARC HFBE-87 HF Broadcasting Mobile Service (Maritime and Aeronautical), Rec.205(FPLMTS) WARC Mob-87 WARC-88 Geostationary Satellite Orbit WARC-92 IMT-2000(FPLMTS) WRC-95 Simplified Radio Regulations, Satellite WRC-97 Satellite systems, HAPS, HF Broadcasting WRC-2000 Additional IMT-2000 spectrum WRC-03 Satellite systems, GNSS, ESVs, HF WRC-07 IMT (IMT-2000 & IMT-Advanced)

1 IMT History, observations � Over the last century, certain topics became popular and were treated at WRCs; � Most of them influenced economy and social live significantly; � There was a time for maritime, broadcasting and satellite, cellular, …: now mobile broadband is the hot topic;

1 IMT History Standards • IMT-2000 Direct Spread • LTE-Advanced RESOLUTION ITU-R 56 (WCDMA/UTRA FDD) (1999) Naming for International • IMT-2000 Multi Carrier • WirelessMAN-Advanced Mobile Telecommunications (2007) (CDMA2000) (1999) • IMT-2000 Time Code (UTRA TDD, TD-SCDMA) (1999) • IMT-2000 Single Carrier TDMA ITU-R M.[IMT.RSPEC] (UWC-136) (1999) • IMT-2000 Frequency Time (DECT+) (1999) ITU-R M.1457: Detailed specifications of the • IMT-2000 OFDMA TDD WMAN terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000) (Mobile WiMAX) (2007)

1 IMT History, IMT-Advanced

1 IMT History, IMT Spectrum

2 New developments, challenges: � While voice traffic on mobile networks is growing at a relatively constant rate, there is a very rapid increase in the volume of data traffic; � This increase is being accelerated by the introduction of new types of devices (smartphones, tablets and dongles) and new mobile applications;

2 New developments, challenges: � The amount of spectrum identified for IMT at WRC-07 did not meet the estimated (by ITU studies) amount of spectrum required by year 2020; � Furthermore, it seems now that many of the estimates done prior WRC-07 for mobile traffic were too conservative;

2 New developments, trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband: � New type of devices, such as smart phones, dongles, tablets; � Mobile Internet usage is increasing; � Huge increase in mobile applications; � Video traffic is growing dramatically;

2 New developments, trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband: � Media rich social networks go mobile; � Machine-to-Machine traffic is growing rapidly; � Several Policy initiatives to promote mobile broadband; � Cost reduction and price decrease;

3 Market estimates indicate strong growth: Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2015 7,000,000 Cisco 6,000,000 Alcatel-Lucent ABI Research (2011) iDate/UM TS Forum Total Traffic (Terabytes/Month) 5,000,000 Analysys M ason Informa Telecoms & M edia Yankee Group 4,000,000 Coda Research M organ Stanley Averages 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Discrepancies in forecasts partly attributable to differing assumptions on Wi-Fi offloading

3 Market estimates indicate strong growth: Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2020 14,000,000 Cisco 12,000,000 Alcatel-Lucent ABI Research (2011) Total Traffic (Terabytes/month) 10,000,000 iDate/UMTS Forum Analysys Mason 8,000,000 Averages 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2,010 2,015 2020

Estimates 3 prior WRC-07 One country estimate in ITU- One country estimate in ITU -R M.2072 for R M.2072 for “Representative Western Eur country traffic Representative Western Eur country traffic” ” “ - done at year 2005 2 000 000 1 800 000 Global estimate for Global estimate for “total world traffic total world traffic” ” “ - done at year 2005 (Figure 16 from ITU-R M.2072)

Many of the 3 2 800 000 estimates 2 600 000 prior WRC-07 2 400 000 2 200 000 were too 2 000 000 conservative 1 800 000 FACTUAL FACTUAL mobile mobile data traffic at data traffic at year 2010 year 2010 From CISCO report (Feb 2011) for year 2010: 237 petabytes/month= 237 000 terabytes/month= 2,844,000 terabytes/year

3 Many of the estimates prior WRC-07 were too conservative Country Date Mobile broadband traffic per day Sweden 2009 61 MB Finland 2H 2009 61 MB Hungary June 2010 45 MB Denmark 2H 2009 43 MB Austria Q4 2009 42 MB Ireland Q1 2010 42 MB Iceland 2H 2009 31 MB FACTUAL Estonia Q1 2010 18 MB info of Croatia 22 2010 16 MB mobile Slovak n/a 15 MB data traffic Germany 2009 4.8 MB collected Netherlands 2H 2009 2.3 MB by Malta Q1 2010 0.5 MB ECC PT1 12 MB (average smartphones) 167 MB GSMA/Telia Sonera November 2010 (3G modem) 500 MB (LTE user) Estimate for 2012 28 MB ITU-R M.2072 (UMTS Forum) Estimate for 2020 495 MB Estimates from 2005

4 ITU-R Action, Next Steps: � Many involved parties (governments, operators, manufacturers, researchers) have analyzed the available data; � All involved parties have realized, that the gap between estimated and real figures is tremendous;

4 ITU-R Action, Next Steps: � It is widely known, that there is a long lead time involved in: o identifying suitable spectrum at the international level; o making the spectrum available at the national level, and: o actual system deployment;

4 IMT Spectrum cycles (terrestrial): WARC-92 WRC-2000 WRC-2007 WRC-20xy 7-8 years 7-8 years 7-8 years 2 GHz 800-900 MHz, 1.8 GHz, 2.6 GHz 450-470 MHz, 600-700 MHz, 2.3 GHz, 3.5 GHz

4 ITU-R Action, Next Steps: � ITU-R has commenced work on a new ITU-R Report “Analysis and assessment of global broadband wireless services and marketplace for IMT”; � ITU-R is holding a series of ITU regional workshops in the year 2011 to support this work;

4 ITU-R Action, Next Steps: The new ITU-R Report and the workshops intend to: - refreshing the vision and market forecasts for IMT from 2003/2005; - assessing the current perspectives of the future needs of mobile broadband wireless for 2012-2022; - address the possible evolution of the IMT-Advanced technologies; - Develop new traffic forecasts for the period from 2012-2022; - Provide a sound basis of market and traffic figures for further work in ITU-R;

ITU Regions, regional Organisations: 4

4 ITU-R Webpage has been set up for the workshops: http://groups.itu.int/Default.aspx?tabid=1477

ITU-R Action, Next Steps: 10