Partnering with Joint and Operations Analysis Division DR Brian - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

UNCLASSIFIED Partnering with Joint and Operations Analysis Division DR Brian Hanlon – a/Chief JOAD 1

Major Science & Technology Capabilities • Joint Warfare Mathematical • Land Mathematical Science • Maritime Mathematical Science Science • Land Organisation & Management • Maritime Simulation, • Joint Organisation & Social Science Experimentation & War-gaming Science • Land Simulation, Experimentation • Maritime Systems Analysis • Joint Simulation, Experimentation & War-gaming • Australian Maritime Warfare & War-gaming • Defence Systems Integration Centre • Defence Operations Support Centre • Scientific Adviser CJOPS Maritime Joint Capability Land Capability Capability Analysis Analysis Analysis Trusted Autonomy, Behavior, Complexity and Control • Strategic Analysis • Aerospace Mathematical Science • Planning and Logistics • Force Design • Aerospace Organisation & • Situation Assessment Principal • Technology Forecasting & Futures Management Science • Command Intent Scientist • Strategic Security Risk • Aerospace Simulation, • Behaviour and Control Assessment Experimentation & War-gaming • Aerospace Systems Analysis Strategic Aerospace Capability Capability Decision Sciences Analysis Analysis 2

Joint & Operations Analysis Division – Partnering Highlights • Signed a collaborative research funding and review program with U.S. AFOSR in May. • Partnered with RMIT to develop an advanced Helicopter Aircrew Training System assessment tool. • Partnering with USAF Headquarters A9, AFRL, US Navy (NAVAIR) and Australian academia (University of Melbourne and RMIT University) to develop the next generation air combat modelling and simulation • Invitational Symposium on Trusted Autonomous Systems (ISTAS) with world-class national universities and international academic and Defence partners in May. 3

100 Agreement Types MSTC Agreement Distribution Executed Agreements Agreements Academic Chair 2015-16 Last 5 years Aerospace MOU Land 45 6 IPA Maritime 4 Research Agreements Joint Defence PhD Last 5 years Strategic 2 NDA Decision 14 0 Collaborative Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Research Types of Agreements MSTC Budget($) Distribution 0 20 40 60 Last 5 years Aerospace External parties 31 Land External Parties Maritime Last 5 years Joint 8.3 mil Total Strategic Decision Budget Last 5 years Budget ($) and 2 business days Agreement Distribution Average Sign off time Budget ($) for each Budget ($) for each for CJOAD Last Executed Agreement Executed Agreement 1 year 2015-16 2014-15 10 business days Average Sign off time for External Parties Last 1 year 1 4 7 10131619222528313437 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Last FY This FY 2014-15 2015-16

Joint & Operations Analysis Division – Partnering Opportunities • Operations Analysis • Capability Analysis • Wargaming • Complex System Evaluation • Visualisation • Machine Learning • Autonomy • Technology Futures To support the S&T Acquisition within Defence, the future force, along with the force- in-being, and S&T Support to Operations. 5

DR Dale Quinn a/RL Aerospace Capability Analysis INTEGRATED AEROSPACE OPERATIONS 6

The Changing Face of Australian Air Power Joint Strike Fighter F-35 P- 8 F/A-18F Super Hornet Lightning II ARH Tiger Wedgetail AEW&C MRH-90 KC30B Multi-Role Tanker C-17 Globemaster C-27J Transport 7

A strong, strategic centre to strengthen accountability and top level decision-making Plan Jericho is Air Force’s plan to transform into a fully integrated force that is capable of fighting and winning in the information age. 8

Opportunities for Collaboration Advanced Metrics Advanced Methodologies Multi-Resolution Modelling Advanced Visualisation 10

DR Jim Smelt RL Maritime Capability Analysis MARITIME CAPABILITY ANALYSIS 11

MARITIME CAPABILITY ANALYSIS Uses the techniques of operations research and analysis (mathematical modelling, simulation, experimentation, wargaming, systems analysis, data analytics) to support evidence- based decisions on Navy’s Force structure, warfighting concepts, acquisition of systems, operational effectiveness and capability management Modelling Partnerships Warfare Maritime Access to the Operational Skilled and domain Force warfighter Data Research simulation knowledge Assessment Staff • Experimentati tools Framework on facilities • Expert elicitation tools 12

Enhancing Current Capability DST Group Activity Navy Outcome • Enhanced Operational Operations/Exercise Effectiveness through Analysis • Benchmarked capability • Data collection • identify gaps • Reconstruction • accept into service • Analysis • Knowledge of • Reporting A A A effectiveness • Fleet Trials and B B B • Force Experimentation • C2 C C C RAS BOX • • System Warfare Modelling D D D • Evidence for new • C2 Modelling and Analysis requirements • Warfighting Assessments • Evolved tactics for new • structured qualitative threats assessments of the ability • Optimised processes, of ADF to achieve organisation and manning warfighting effects 14

Creating and Shaping the Future Force – Strategy and Concepts Phase Conduct maritime force analysis and maritime experimentation to provide  Future concept development, exploration and testing leading to future task group operating concepts  Analysis of options for the Future Maritime Force to inform Defence’s Force Design process 15

Creating and Shaping the Future Force - Risk Mitigation, Requirement Setting & Acquisition Phases 2015 2030 Offshore LHD, DDG, Maritime P8-A, F-35A Future Future Patrol MH-60R Land UAV Ops Frigate Submarine MQ-4C Vessel, Triton Support MTUAS, Capability EA-18G (MOSC) Growler Support Maritime Capability Acquisition  Analysis to generate requirements  Analysis and evaluation of options 16

Maritime Capability Analysis - Partnership Opportunities  Support improvement in scope, flexibility and responsiveness of our modelling and simulation toolbox  Research and develop expert elicitation tools to improve accuracy and efficiency of interactions with the warfighter  Assistance with options for better capture, storage, management and exploitation of exercise and operational data  Provide specialist training for research staff in new tools and techniques  Student placements/internships, e.g. – Data analytics – Simulation – Mathematical modelling 17

DR Lin Zhang a/Research Leader Land Capability Analysis LAND CAPABILITY ANALYSIS 18

Land Capability Analysis: Modelling combined arms close combat Partnership Opportunities • Statistical design of experiments • Simulation input data generation and representation • Simulation scenario development and Close combat is Army's core capability. Success in representation close combat depends on having the right mix of elements in the Combined Arms Team in the • Simulation based data analytics fight. • Human in the loop simulation • Simulation software development This research will advance modelling and simulation of Land Close Combat in order to better understand the contributions made by elements of the Combined Arms Teams to close combat effectiveness; ensuring that Army has the required mix of capabilities to succeed at close combat into the future. 19

LCA: Evaluating the impact of ground combat enablers Partnership Opportunities: • Mathematical modelling and optimisation • Statistical experiment design • Data mining and predictive analysis The effectiveness of ground manoeuvre warfare depends on effective and balanced • Systems modelling and component modelling combat enablers. • Inferential statistics This research goal aims to develop operational effectiveness models, tools and techniques that provide a clear understanding of how various land combat enablers including situational understanding, C3 and combat support, as well as joint enablers, impact the operational effectiveness of the reinforced combat brigade engaged in joint land manoeuvre. 20

LCA: Developing holistic analytical approaches to shape future army Army, as a complex socio-technical organisation operating Partnership Opportunities: in complex environments, cannot be fully evaluated exclusively through reductionist analytical approaches. • Systems thinking analysis This research goal aims to develop holistic evidence- based approaches that enable understanding, analysis • Conceptual modelling and assessment of the performance of the whole of the land force operating in an irreducibly uncertain and • Problem structuring complex future. • Knowledge elicitation The expected outcome of this research is to provide contestable whole of force evidence to support Army in the design and development of a robust and adaptive 'future-proofed' force for joint interagency land operations. 21