Ongoing Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia Pavel Ya. Groisman - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ongoing Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia Pavel Ya. Groisman (pasha.groisman@noaa.gov) NEESPI Project Scientist, UCAR Project Scientist at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA CITES-2009 Young Scientists’ School July 10, 2009, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Authors’ team • Pavel Ya. Groisman (pasha.groisman@noaa.gov), NEESPI Project Scientist, UCAR Project Scientist at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA • Olga N. Bulygina (Bulygina@meteo.ru ) and Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev (Razuvaev@meteo.ru), Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological information, Obninsk, Russia • Anna V. Meshcherskaya (meschers@main.mgo.rssi.ru), Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia • Sergiy V. Ivanov (svvivo@te.net.ua), Odessa State Environmental University, Odessa, Ukraine • Zhaneldyk K. Akhmadiyeva (zhanna_akhmadi@yahoo.com), Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Almaty, Kazakhstan • Karsten Shein (karsten.shein@noaa.gov), NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA • Nina A. Speranskaya (speran@mail.rcom.ru), State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia • Panmao Zhai (pmzhai@cma.gov.cn), Headquarters, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Regional networks used for these analyses

Stations where soil moisture in the upper 1 meter has been measured systematically since 1970s (Speranskaya 2009)

Introduction • Northern Eurasia is the region where the contemporary warming and associated climatic and environmental changes are among the most pronounced globally during the period of instrumental observations since 1881. • The presentation shows these changes observed during the past 50 to 100 years as they are reflected in many atmospheric and terrestrial variables of economic, social and ecological interest.

Global (latitudinal zone from 60 ° S to 90 ° N) and Northern Eurasia (north of 40 ° N) surface air temperature anomalies, 1881-2008 (Archive of Lugina et al. 2007 updated).

Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies, 1881-2008 (Lugina et al. 2007) 1990 Linear trend, 0.97K/128yrs, is statistically significant at the 0.001 level [Budyko & Vinnikov, 1976 “Global warming”]

Cold season temperature gradient [T(0°-30°N) - T(60°-90°N)]. December through March

Intermediate seasons temperature gradient [T(0°-30°N) - T(60°-90°N)]. Apr-May and Oct-Nov

• Part 1. Temperature changes in Northern Eurasia

Northern Eurasia, north of 40°N east of 15°E. Summer Surface air temperature Annual anomalies anomalies. 1881-2008. Data source: Increase: Archive of work 1.5K per of Lugina et al. 2007 . 128 years

Northern Asia, north of 40°N. 1881-2008. Surface air temperature anomalies from the 1951- 1975 reference period 3.5 Temperature anomalies, K 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 Linear trend: 1.65K/128 yrs; R 2 = 0.40 -2.5 -3.5 Years 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 During the past twenty years, all anomalies were above 0.5K and eight of them were above 1.5K. Year 2007 showed a record anomaly of 2.5K.

Mean annual surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over China 2 ( ℃ ) 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 trend: 0.17 ℃ /10a Trend = 0.2 ° C /10yr -1 -1.5 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Mean annual surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over the Russian Federation since 1939

Russian Federation

Surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over quasi- homogeneous climatic regions of the Russian Federation

Surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over quasi- homogeneous climatic regions of the Russian Federation

Differences between mean values of October temperatures for 1990-2006 and the previous 30-year –long period (1960-1989) over Kazakhstan (°C). 1.5 1.0

Differences between mean values of July temperatures for 1990-2006 and the previous 30-year –long period (1960-1989) over Kazakhstan (°C).

• Part 2. Changes in characteristics of the seasonal cycle

Duration of the growing season area- averaged over Russia and Kazakhstan 225 Russia Kazakhstan Growing season duration, days 200 175 150 125 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 During the past 70 years, significant changes by 6 to 11 days (or by 5% to 6%)

Changes of duration (D, days) of the frost-free and growing periods over 200 European 180 Russia south of 160 dD/dt=1.5 days /decade 60°N R 2 = 0.10 140 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Changes of duration (D, days) of the frost-free period over Siberia and Russian Far East south of 55°N

Annual heating degree-days area-averaged over Russia and Kazakhstan 9000 Russia Kazakhstan 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 During the past 70 years, we observe a significant decrease in energy needed for heating, by 5% and 12% in Russia and Kazakhstan respectively.

Annual heating degree-days area-averaged over European Russia 8000 North of 60N South of 60N 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 During the past 70 years in the south of European Russia , we observe a significant decrease in energy needed for heating (by 11%). In the north, the decrease (by 7% per 40 years) became apparent only in the last four decades .

Annual heating degree-days area-averaged over three regions of Siberia 9500 Central Siberia South Siberia West Siberia 8500 7500 6500 5500 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 During the past 70 years, a significant decrease in energy needed for heating: by 6%, 8%, and 9% in Central, Southern, and Western Siberia respectively .

• Part 3. Changes in the Arctic sea ice extent and snow snow cover over Eurasia cover over Eurasia

� Mean ice drafts at places where early cruises were (nearly) collocated with cruises in the 1990s. Decrease in sea ice thickness � � Sampling error issue not fully resolved Archive of Yu et al. 2004

� State on July 2, 2009; ---- median 1979-2000 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent, 1979-2009 Available from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html June time series and its linear trend Ł

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, Sept., % 2008 Courtesy of Dr. Florence Fetterer, NSIDC, Boulder, Colorado

Terra-MODIS RGB, July-Sept 2008, 250 m resolution. Courtesy of Dr. Alexander Trishchenko, Chief, Canada Centre for Remote Sensing

Annual land surface air temperature changes (MIT GCM run ) due to “forcing” by SST and sea ice changes (Sokolov 2008) => Northern Eurasia is “attacked” globally and from the Arctic

Summary of snow cover changes over Northern Eurasia during the past several decades • In autumn: Dates of the onset of snow cover have not change noticeably • In winter: Maximum snow depth has increased over most of the north • In late spring: Snow cover extent has been shrunken

• Part 4. Changes in the hydrological cycle

Soil moisture changes over European Russia south of 60°N during the warm season in the first upper 100 and 10 cm respectively (Speranskaya 2009) Upper 1 m Upper 10 cm 180 20 Soil moisture, mm 150 15 120 90 10 60 5 30 upper meter upper 10 cm 0 0 Years 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 r = 0.78 ; rates of change = 9.3%/10yr [R 2 =0.58] and 5.5%/10yr [R 2 =0.15] respectively.

Soil moisture changes in the first upper meter in Asian Russia April-May June-August 1 – derno-podzolic soil 2 – gray forest soil A – western and B – eastern regions

Whole China Mean Precipitation Anomalies 120 Anomalies 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20 Percentage Anomalies 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Trends in Annual Precipitation during 1951-2000 Filled (open) circles 10%, 5% increase (decrease) X – means that trend is statistically significant at the 5% level 50 40 30 20 80 90 100 110 120 130

• Over Kazakhstan, a comparison of the latest period (since 1990) with the previous three decades shows : – A significant increase in surface air temperatures with the largest changes (~1 ° C) in the cold season – A significant (up to 1 m s -1 ) decrease in the near surface wind speed across the nation in all seasons matching changes in the neighboring steppe areas of Russia and changes in ∂ T/ ∂ ϕ . – A sizeable increase in the surface air absolute humidity while the relative humidity remains mostly unchanged, and – No discernable changes in precipitation (except an increase in the Tian Shan piedmonts)

Annual precipitation area-averaged over the Danube (blue) and Dnieper (green) River Basins, mm (Ivanov et al. 2009)

While summer rainfall in the Western Ukraine does not increase (actually the totals were going down), in the last decade a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall was observed that caused devastating flooding (the last 1995 such flood was in August 2008). 1965 1800 Summer 1500 precipitation 1200 Trans-Carpathian (Uzhgorod) over Western 900 June-September rainfall totals 600 Ukraine 300 0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005