Change of hydrological cycle due to climate warming in northern - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Change of hydrological cycle due to climate warming in northern Eurasia V.P.Meleshko Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet, St. Petersburg, Russia

(Hansen, 2006)

Last 50 years surface temperature change based on linear trends (deg C) (Hansen, 2006)

Observed runoff changes (%) in major river basins of Russia for winter 1978-2000 in relation to previous 55 years. (Georgievsky at al., 2003)

Annually averaged runoff changes (%) observed in major river basins of Russia for period 1978-2000 in relation to previous 55 years. Winter anomalies Annual anomalies (Georgievsky at al., 2003)

Specific features of climate in the Northern Eurasia � The region has variety of climates. It includes vast areas of tundra, boreal forests, semi-deserts and deserts. � The surface air temperature increase reported for the last 30 years was the greatest in the northern hemisphere and the model simulations show that the climate of this region will undergo the most substantial changes in the future. � The region plays an important role in transfer of energy, water, greenhouse gases and aerosols between the atmosphere, land surface, hydrosphere, and cryosphere.

Number of non-frosty days for the current climate (basic period 1980-1999) simulated by IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble 1980-1999

CRYOSPHERE AND HYDROLOGY When climate warms and precipitation increases mostly in winter, three possibilities may occur depending on regions considered: � All precipitation falls down in liquid phase, runoff increases. It favours flooding and contributes to soil drying in spring and particularly at the beginning of summer. � Snow mass accumulation decreases. It results in decreasing snow melt and flooding in spring, but increases drying of soil in at the beginning of summer. � Increase of solid precipitation in excessively cold regions results in larger accumulation of snow mass by the end of winter. It contributes to more frequent flooding in spring and favours development of wet condition in early summer.

Why do we believe that current climate change is due to GHG Why do we believe that current climate change is due to GHG increase in the atmosphere? increase in the atmosphere?

• Global warming could be stimulated by violation radiation balance of climate system due to external forcing

• Cooling of the stratosphere and warming of the troposphere could occur only due to GHG forcing on climate system. (Gareth et al., 2003)

• Current climate models reproduce major patterns of 20 th century climate change only when atmospheric GHG increase is taken into account.

БАЛАНС СО СО 2 БАЛАНС CO 2 BALANCE CO 2 BALANCE 2 в глобальной глобальной системе системе Земля Земля в in global terrestrial system in global terrestrial system (IPCC, , 2001) 2001) (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001) (IPCC � Выбросы СО 2 в атмосферу 6.3±0.4 млрд . т . (100%) � Накопление в атмосфере 3.3±0.1 млрд . т . ( 52%) � Усвоение СО 2 океаном -2.3±0.5 млрд . т . (-37%) � Усвоение СО 2 почвой -0.7±0.6 млрд . т . (-11%) � СО 2 emission to atmosphere 6.3±0.4 Gt. (100%) � Accumulation in atmosphere 3.3±0.1 Gt. ( 52%) � Absorption by ocean -2.3±0.5 Gt. (-37%) � Assimilation by soil -0.7±0.6 Gt. (-11%)

LIFE TIME OF GHG IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIFE TIME OF GHG IN THE ATMOSPHERE (IPCC, , 2001) 2001) (IPCC ВРЕМЯ ЖИЗНИ ЖИЗНИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ГАЗОВ В В АТМОСФЕРЕ АТМОСФЕРЕ ВРЕМЯ � СО 2 50-200 yrs (IPCC, , 2001) 2001) (IPCC � CH 4 10 yrs � N 2 O 150 yrs � CFC-11 65 yrs � СО 2 50-200 лет � CFC-12` 130 yrs 10 лет � CH 4 150 лет � N 2 O 65 лет � CFC-11 130 лет � CFC-12`

How much GHG have increased in the atmosphere for How much GHG have increased in the atmosphere for the last 140 years? the last 140 years? ВРЕМЯ ЖИЗНИ ЖИЗНИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ГАЗОВ В В АТМОСФЕРЕ АТМОСФЕРЕ ВРЕМЯ (IPCC, , 2001) 2001) (IPCC Carbon dioxide(CO 2 ) - 31% Methan (CH 4 ) 151% � СО 2 50-200 лет Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) 17% 10 лет � CH 4 150 лет � N 2 O 65 лет � CFC-11 130 лет � CFC-12`

A2 B1 Источник : IPCC, 2001 Increase of major GHG from 1990 to 2100 A2 B1 CO 2 2.38 1.39 CH 4 1.46 0.89 N 2 O 1.45 1.22

IPCC AR4 climate models IPCC AR4 climate models No. Modeling groups IPCC ID Atmospheric Ocean resolution Resolution (0.5-1.5 0 )x1.5 0 L44 1 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway BCCR-BCM2.0, 2005 Spectral T63L31 2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling & Analysis, Canada CGCM3.1(t47), 2005 Spectral T47L32 192x96L29 1.4 0 x(0.5-1.4 0 )L44 3 Center for Climate System Research, Japan. MIROC3.2(medres), Spectral T42L20 2004 0.8 0 x1.9 0 L31 4 CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia CSIRO Mk3.0, 2001 Spectral T63L18 (0.5-2.0 0 )x2.0 0 L31 5 Meteo-France/Centre National de recherches Meteorologique CNRM-CM3, 2004 Spectral T63L45 182x152L31 6 Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Germany ECHAM5/MPI-OM, Spectral T63L31 1.5x1.5L40 2005 (0.5 0 -2.8 0 )x2.8 0 L20 7 Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn/MRI KMA. ECHO-G, 1999 Spectral T30L20 Germany/Korea (0.3-1.0 0 )x1.0 0 8 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA GFDL-CM2.0, 2005 Grid point 144x90xL24 (0.3-1.0 0 )x1.0 0 9 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA GFDL-CM2.1, 2005 Grid point 144x90xL24 10 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met UK HADCM3, 1997 Grid point 96x73xL19 1.5x1.5L20 (1.0 0 -0.3 0 )x1.0 0 L40 11 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met UK HADGEM, 2004 Grid point 92x144xL21 2 0 x2.5 0 L33 12 Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia INM-CM3.0, 2004 Grid point 72x45xL21 1.2 0 x2 0 L31 13 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France IPSL-CM4, 2005 Grid point 144x48xL19 (0.5 0 -2.0 0 )x2.5 0 L23 14 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan MRI-CGCM2.3.2, 2003 Spectral T42L30 1.9 0 x1.9 0 L29 15 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA NCAR_CSM3, 2005 Spectral T85L26 (0.5 0 -0.7 0 )x1.1 0 L40 16 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA NCAR_PCM, 1998 Spectral T42L26

IPCC AR4 MODEL RANKS Composed annual RMSE of individual models for precipitation (PRC), surface air temperature over continents (TAS), sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern hemisphere normalized at appropriate multi- model RMSEs. ENS-16 10 ENS 16 9 Δ T 16 =3.26 ± 0.67 8 7 6 PRC 5 4 TAS 3 SLP 2 1 SST-N 0 MRI HADGEM1 M-16 ECHAM GFDL_CM2.1 INM GFDL_CM2.0 HADCM3 CNRM IPSL ECHO-G NCAR PCM CCC-T47 NCAR_CSM CSIRO BCCR CCSR_me

Annually averaged surface air temperature (deg C) and precipitation (mm/day) changes in Russia during 21st century relative to basic climate period (1980-1999). Scenario B1 and A2. Ensemble runs with 16 IPCC AR4 climate models. 1 0 9 8 TAS 7 A2 6 5 B1 4 3 2 1 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 0 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 0.5 PR 0.4 A2 0.3 B1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 02 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 20 5 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 0 2 1 00 -0.1

Surface air temperature changes (deg C) in winter and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21 st century with respect to temperature at the basic period (1980-1999). Scenario A. 2011-2030 гг . 2011-2030 гг . Winter Summer 2041-2060 гг . 2041-2060 гг . Winter Summer

Administrative regions selected for evaluation of anthropogenic climate changes.

Expected changes of surface air temperature (deg C) over administrative regions of Russia in winter and summer at beginning and middle of the 21 st century with respect to the basic period 1980-1999. Multi-model ensemble comprising 16 AOGCMs. Scenario A2. 6 6 5 5 Winter 2011-2030 Summer 2011-2030 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Regions Regions Winter 2041-2060 6 6 5 5 Summer 2041-2060 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Regions Regions

Increase vegetation period (days) at the beginning and middle of the 21 st century with respect to basic period 1980-1999 in Northern Hemisphere as computed from multi-model ensemble IPCC AR4. Scenario A2. 2011-2030 2041-2060

Total precipitation changes (in %) in winter and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21 st century with respect to total precipitation at the basic period (1980-1999). Scenario A2. 2011-2030 2011-2030 Winter Summer Winter 2041-2060 Summer 2041-2060

Administrative regions selected for evaluation of anthropogenic climate changes.