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Slide 2 Research Group on Russia and Eurasia KULeuven
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Russia’s Foreign Policy: Back to the Future? Dr. Ria Laenen (Russia and Eurasia Research Group, KU Leuven) April 24, 2012
Development of Russia’s post- Soviet foreign policy (1992 – 2012) � 1992 – 1996: � ad hoc foreign policy of a new state in the process of nation- and state-building � division between Atlanticists and Eurasianists, with dominant Atlanticist approach in foreign policy of president Yeltsin and FM Kozyrev � start of intense debate on what Russia’s own national interests should be (Dec 1993 Duma elections: victory for ‘red-brown’ forces)
Development of Russia’s post- Soviet foreign policy (1992 – 2012) � 1996 – 1999: � FM Primakov introduces concept of “multivector” foreign policy � parameters of Russia’s national interests are set out � “Near Abroad” is top foreign policy priority, declared as zone of vital and exclusive national interests � increasing frustration about relationship with West: peek = NATO bombing of Serbia in Spring 1999 � assertive foreign policy rhetorics <-> weak economic situation (Summer 1998: financial crisis)
Development of Russia’s post- Soviet foreign policy (1992 – 2012) � 2000 – 2012: � national interests ‘doctrine’: basis for foreign policy � several important foreign policy documents adopted and re- adopted in newer versions (latest foreign policy concept, 2008) � spectacular economic growth 2000-2008 gives boost to even more assertive foreign policy -> Russia one of the BRIC(S) countries � President Putin (2000-2008), PM Putin (2008-2012) is seen as personification of strong and assertive Russia � energy is used as political tool, espc towards Near Abroad � reclaiming of great power status � high peek of assertiveness = Russian-Georgian military conflict, August 2008
Russian claims to great power status “Russia is one of the world’s strongest countries with a centuries old history � and rich cultural traditions. Despite the complicated international situation and internal problems, it continues to play an important role in world processes based on its considerable economic, scientific-technical and military potential and its unique strategic location on the Eurasian continent.”[1] [1] “ Kontseptsiia natsional’noi bezopasnosti RF” [National Security Concept of the Russian Federation], Diplomaticheskii vestnik 2 (2000): 3-13. “ with due account for the increased role of the country in international � affairs, its greater responsibility for global developments and related possibilities to participate in the implementation of the international agenda, as well as in its development. ”[2] [2] “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”, 12 July 2008, as published on the Official Website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: http://www.mid.ru
Legacy of the past � “Our foreign policy objectives are strategic in nature and are not based on opportunistic considerations. They reflect Russia's unique role on the world political map as well as its role in history and in the development of civilization .” Vladimir Putin, “Russia and the Changing World” in Moskovskiye Novosti, 27 Feb. 2012
Russia’s Foreign Policy Under the ‘new/old’ President � continuation of foreign policy along parameters set out in previous years � most interesting to watch: � dynamics in Russia-China-US relations � Eurasian Union project � future of BRICS cooperation � !! internal developments within Russia
Russia’s multivector foreign policy � Russia and the West � Russia and ‘the Near Abroad’ � Russia and China � Russia as global actor
Russia and NATO “We perceive some aspects of US and NATO conduct that contradict the � logic of modern development, relying instead on the stereotypes of a bloc- based mentality. Everyone understands what I am referring to - an expansion of NATO that includes the deployment of new military infrastructure with US-drafted plans to establish a missile defense system in Europe. I would not touch on this issue if these plans were not conducted in close proximity to Russian borders, if they did not undermine our security and global stability in general. [...] Regrettably, our Western partners are unresponsive and have simply brushed our concerns aside. We are worried that although the outline of our "new" relations with NATO are not yet final, the alliance is already providing us with "facts on the ground" that are counterproductive to building mutual trust. At the same time, this approach will backfire with respect to global objectives, making it more difficult to cooperate on a positive agenda and will impede any constructive reallignment in international relations.” Vladimir Putin, “Russia and the Changing World” in Moskovskiye Novosti, 27 Feb. 2012
Russia and NATO
Russia and NATO � from Russian perspective, NATO has lost its ‘raison d’etre’ in post-Cold War context � NATO enlargement seen as security threat to Russia � nevertheless, cooperation on selected areas "in the interests of ensuring predictability and stability in the Euro-Atlantic Region" (Russian Foreign Policy Concept, 2008) � 1997: Foundation Act NATO-Russia cooperation � 2002: NATO – Russia Council � areas of cooperation espc. counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics � eg Afghanistan
Tensions in Russia-US/NATO relation � enlargement: Russia maintains its negative attitude towards the expansion of NATO, notably to the plans of admitting Ukraine and Georgia to the membership in the alliance, as well as to bringing the NATO military infrastructure closer to the Russian borders on the whole, which violates the principle of equal security , leads to new dividing lines in Europe and runs counter to the tasks of increasing the effectiveness of joint work in search for responses to real challenges of our time. � state sovereignty vs. R2P: “The recent series of armed conflicts started under the pretext of humanitarian aims is undermining the time-honored principle of state sovereignty , creating a moral and legal void in the practice of international relations.” Vladimir Putin, “Russia and the Changing World” in Moskovskiye Novosti, 27 Feb. 2012 � reset button policy (initiated by Obama) has not worked
Tensions in Russia-US/NATO relations: The Arab World � “ No one should be allowed to employ the Libyan scenario in Syria. [...] Sadder but wiser, we oppose the adoption of UN Security Council resolutions that may be interpreted as a signal to armed interference in Syria's domestic development. [...] In this context and considering the extremely negative, almost hysterical reaction to the Russian-Chinese veto, I would like to warn our Western colleagues against the temptation to resort to this simple, previously used tactic : if the UN Security Council approves of a given action, fine; if not, we will establish a coalition of the states concerned and strike anyway.” V. Putin, “Russia and the Changing World” in Moskovskiye Novosti, 27 Feb. 2012
Strong anti-US/NATO rhetorics � “All this fervor around the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea makes one wonder how the risks of nuclear weapons proliferation emerge and who is aggravating them . It seems that the more frequent cases of crude and even armed outside interference in the domestic affairs of countries may prompt authoritarian (and other) regimes to possess nuclear weapons .” V. Putin, “Russia and the Changing World” in Moskovskiye Novosti, 27 Feb. 2012
Russia – EU: strategic partnership? different tone from Russia to Europe � Russia and the concept of ‘Europe’: most � important ‘Other’ mutual (economic) dependence � discourse of strategic partnership � � PCA (concluded in 1994) � 4 common spaces (May 2003 agreement) � EU-Russia Energy Dialogue (set up in 2000) � Partnership for Modernisation but lot’s of stumbling blocks � � internal division within EU- members about Russia � ongoing negotiations on new comprehensive cooperation agreement � first Russia-Ukraine gas crisis in 2006: eye opener for EU -> reliability of Russia as partner called into question divide and rule strategy towards EU: � eg pipeline politics such as Nord � Stream and South Stream projects
EU-Russia energy relations � Formal energy frameworks: � EU-Russia Energy Dialogue : � formalized talks in 3 thematic groups � Energy Strategy, Forecasts and Scenarios � Market Developments � Energy Efficiency coordinators: Russian Minister of Energy (S.Shmatko) and EU � Commissioner on Energy Issues (G. Oettinger) � Energy Charter Treaty : multilateral rules, signed by 50+ states � Russia signed but did not ratify Treaty � issues with 3rd parties access to Russian pipelines � withdrew from the Treaty in Aug 2009 � energy also important part of trade issues discussed in new PCA negotiations
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