of paraquat
play

of paraquat Presentation for reassessment hearing September 2019 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Estimating the economic contribution of paraquat Presentation for reassessment hearing September 2019 Estimation factors Baseline economic impact expressed in terms of crop contribution to GDP attributable to paraquat Three components,


  1. Estimating the economic contribution of paraquat Presentation for reassessment hearing September 2019

  2. Estimation factors Baseline economic impact expressed in terms of crop contribution to GDP • attributable to paraquat Three components, as follows: • Herbicide Share of paraquat Crop contribution Crop contribution contribution to X in NZ herbicide use = to GDP attributable X to GDP crop yield (%) (%) to paraquat From Manktelow From Gianessi From NZIER (2015) (2005) and interviews (2007) adapted for NZ conditions www.thinkSapere.com 2

  3. Baseline estimate is $39m-$75m per annum Industry growth rates used to derive 2017 total value at risk, • dominated by clover and kumara Paraquat contribution to GDP by crop Crop HIGH LOW Apples $1,539,643 $484,729 Brassicas (cabbage, broccoli, cauliflower) $1,301,712 $409,820 Clover (seed crop) $44,627,873 $14,050,275 Green beans $127,249 $40,062 Kumara $12,041,355 $12,041,355 Lettuce $36,196 $11,396 Lucerne $10,831,136 $10,831,136 Onions $603,303 $189,939 Plantain (seed crop) $849,339 $267,399 Pears $244,815 $77,076 Pea (seed crop) $1,059,759 $333,646 Potatoes $1,208,909 $380,603 Spinach and silverbeet $30,990 $9,757 Stone fruit $136,978 $43,125 Strawberries $62,176 $19,575 Sweet corn $125,685 $39,570 TOTAL $74,827,118 $39,229,462 www.thinkSapere.com 3

  4. Restricted scenario based largely on application rates and frequency www.thinkSapere.com 4

  5. GDP reduction most material at 300 g a.i/ha, mainly due to clover $80 $70 GDP contribution (attributable to paraquat) at risk (NZD million) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 600 500 400 300 200 100 Maximum paraquat concentration allowed (g a.i./ha) High use Low use www.thinkSapere.com 5

  6. Final results • A ban on paraquat use would result in a minimum of $39 million and a maximum of $75 million of annual GDP loss per year (less than one half of one per cent of annual GDP nationally) • Restricting the application rate of paraquat to: • 300 grams of active ingredient per hectare (g a.i./ha) would put up to $72 million in GDP at risk annually; • 400 g a.i/ha would put up to $25 million in GDP at risk annually; • 600 a a.i/ha would put up to $0.14 million in GDP at risk annually www.thinkSapere.com 6

  7. Supplementary comments • An estimation process, relying on key assumptions and translation of inputs from overseas in the absence of ‘hard data’ • Initial estimates were revised upward by between $9 million and $15 million (from between $30 million and $60 million) following submissions • Results were largely insensitive to alternative parameters www.thinkSapere.com 7

Recommend


More recommend