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Th F t Th F t The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated B l B l t th Ed t th Ed t d t d ASU Education Innovation Summit ASU Education Innovation Summit Phoenix Phoenix April 16, 2012 April 16, 2012


  1. “The most important financial innovation “The most important financial innovation that I have seen the past 20 years is the that I have seen the past 20 years is the automatic teller machine… automatic teller machine I wish someone automatic teller machine I wish someone automatic teller machine… I wish someone I wish someone would give me one shred of neutral would give me one shred of neutral evidence that financial innovation leads to evidence that financial innovation leads to evidence that financial innovation leads to evidence that financial innovation leads to economic growth. One shred of evidence.” economic growth. One shred of evidence.” Paul Volcker Paul Volcker Former Chairman, Federal Reserve Former Chairman, Federal Reserve

  2. “A country does not go bankrupt.” “A country does not go bankrupt.” — — Walter Wriston Walter Wriston Walter Wriston Walter Wriston Former CEO of Citibank Former CEO of Citibank Source: New York Times , September 14, 1982.

  3. Sovereign Debt Defaults Sovereign Debt Defaults Sovereign Debt Defaults Sovereign Debt Defaults Argentina Argentina Ecuador Ecuador Paraguay Paraguay Romania Romania Turkey Turkey Uruguay Uruguay • • 1830 • 1832 • 1827 • 1915 • 1876 1830 1830 1830 1832 1832 1832 1827 1827 1827 1915 1915 1915 • 1876 1876 1876 1876 1876 1876 1876 • 1890 • • 1868 • 1874 • 1933 • 1891 1890 1868 1874 1933 • 1915 1891 1915 • • 1915 • • 1915 • 1911 • 1911 • 1892 • 1892 • 1981 • 1981 • 1915 • 1915 1915 1915 1911 1911 1892 1892 1981 1981 • 1940 • 1940 1940 1940 1915 1915 • 1930s • • 1914 • 1920 • 1978 • 1933 1930s 1914 1920 1978 1933 • 1982 1982 1982 1982 • 1931 1931 1931 1931 • 1932 1932 1932 1932 • 1983 1983 1983 1983 • • 2001 2001 • 1982 1982 • 1986 1986 • 2003 2003 • 1999 • 2003 1999 2003 • 2008 2008 S ources: S turzenegger and Zettelmayer (2006), Moody‘ s, Milken Institute.

  4. America Goes to Work America Goes to Work U S U S U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment d F d F t t 500 E 500 E l l t t 200 200 U.S. = +62 million jobs U.S. = +62 million jobs j New financial New financial New financial New financial 180 180 180 180 technologies are technologies are 160 160 fully implemented fully implemented 140 140 140 140 120 120 100 100 100 100 Modern capital Modern capital 80 80 Fortune 500 = minus 4 million Fortune 500 = minus 4 million markets begin markets begin 60 60 60 60 70 70 75 75 80 80 85 85 90 90 95 95 00 00 Index 1970 = 100 Index 1970 = 100

  5. Ted Turner Ted Turner Craig McCaw Craig McCaw g Bill McGowan Bill McGowan Steve Ross Steve Ross Steve Wynn Steve Wynn Reg Lewis Reg Lewis

  6. The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated Democratization of Capital Democratization of Capital • • Building Human Capital Building Human Capital Building Human Capital Building Human Capital • • • • Where’s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • • • • Education is the Answer Education is the Answer

  7. 2011 U.S. Household Balance Sheet 2011 U.S. Household Balance Sheet $71 Trillion Total $71 Trillion Total $ Insurance Insurance R Reserve R Reserve Shares Shares and and Other Other Loans Loans <1% <1% Funds 19 Funds 19% % Securities Securities Financial Financial 37% 37% Assets Assets 1% 1% Real Real Estate Estate 26% 26% Deposits and Deposits and Other Other Currency Currency Currency Currency Tangible Tangible 7% 7% 10% 10% S ource: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Q3 2011

  8. Q3 2011 Human Capital in the U.S. Q3 2011 Human Capital in the U.S. $229 Trillion Total $229 Trillion Total U.S. Financial U.S. Financial Assets Assets 24% 24% Human and Social Capital Human and Social Capital 76% 76% S ource: Derived from Kevin Murphy and Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Q3, 2011

  9. Human capital Human capital Human capital Human capital is our most valuable asset. is our most valuable asset.

  10. The 21 st Century will see The 21 st Century will see The 21 The 21 Century will see Century will see a worldwide competition a worldwide competition a worldwide competition a worldwide competition for human capital. for human capital. for human capital. for human capital.

  11. Apple vs. Sony 1997 Apple vs. Sony 1997 pp pp y y Market Value Market Value Sony 21 Apple = 1 Sony $34 3 billi $34.3 billion Apple Apple l $1.65 billion $1.65 billion

  12. Sony: Five Decades of Innovation Sony: Five Decades of Innovation • • Tape recorder and transistor radio (1950s) Tape recorder and transistor radio (1950s) • • 5-inch micro TV (1962) 5-inch micro TV (1962) • • Trinitron Color TV (1965) Trinitron Color TV (1965) • • U-matic video tape system (1969) U-matic video tape system (1969) • • Beta-Max (1975) Beta-Max (1975) • • Sony Walkman (1979) Sony Walkman (1979) • • Compact discs and player (1982) Compact discs and player (1982) C C t di t di d l d l (1982) (1982) • • Handycam 8mm video camera (1985) Handycam 8mm video camera (1985) Akio Morita Akio Morita (Sony sales and profits triple during the 1980s) (Sony sales and profits triple during the 1980s) Co founder Co-founder Co-founder Co founder • • Sony Play Station (1994) Sony Play Station (1994) Sony Corp. Sony Corp. 1921-1999 1921-1999 S ource: “ Historical Review of S ony's Innovations and Future S teps” (Masanori Hachiya/ S loan S chool of Management)

  13. “Innovation has nothing to “Innovation has nothing to g g do with how many R & D do with how many R & D dollars you have. When dollars you have. When y y Apple came up with the Apple came up with the Mac, IBM was spending at Mac, IBM was spending at least 100 times more on least 100 times more on R & D. It's about the people R & D. It's about the people you have [and] how you're you have [and] how you're led.” led.” - Steve Jobs - Steve Jobs

  14. Apple vs. Sony 2012 Apple vs. Sony 2012 pp pp y y Market Value Market Value 30 S 30 Sony = 1 Apple 1 A l Apple Apple $547 billion $547 billion $547 billion $547 billion Sony Sony Sony Sony $18 billion $18 billion Date: 4-16-12

  15. Do human capital strategies work? Do human capital strategies work? p p g g Per Capita GDP Per Capita GDP 1960 1960 1960 1960 2011 2011 2011 2011 Singapore Si Singapore Si $50,714 $50,714 $2,271 $2,271 , Jamaica Jamaica Jamaica Jamaica $ 5,376 $ 5,376 $ $ , , $2,255 $2,255 $ , $ , S ource: International Monetary Fund (2011 US D)

  16. There are three ways to There are three ways to There are three ways to There are three ways to build human capital: build human capital: p p Education Education Education Education Health Health Health Health Immigration Immigration Immigration Immigration

  17. Addressing the Issues Addressing the Issues (Non Profit Organizations) (Non Profit Organizations) (Non-Profit Organizations) (Non-Profit Organizations) Milken Family Foundation (1982) • Education reform/ teacher recognition/ medical research g The Milken Institute (1991) • Economics/ public-policy research and conferences Prostate Cancer Foundation (1993) • World’s leading philanthropic source of support for research FasterCures (2003) • Removing barriers to progress on all life-threatening diseases Melanoma Research Alliance (2007) • Advancing research on the most-deadly skin cancer

  18. The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated The Future Belongs to the Educated Democratization of Capital Democratization of Capital • • Building Human Capital Building Human Capital Building Human Capital Building Human Capital • • • • Where’s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • • • • Education is the Answer Education is the Answer

  19. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  20. President Jimmy Carter on the energy crisis President Jimmy Carter on the energy crisis y y gy gy and proposed energy legislation and proposed energy legislation “This difficult effort will be “This difficult effort will be the ‘moral equivalent of war’ the ‘moral equivalent of war’ -- except that we will be -- except that we will be uniting our efforts to build uniting our efforts to build and not destroy.” and not destroy.” d d t d t d t t ” ”

  21. D f Defending the Persian Gulf from 1976-2007 Defending the Persian Gulf from 1976-2007 D f di di th P th P i i G lf f G lf f 1976 2007 1976 2007 has cost $7.3 trillion. has cost $7.3 trillion. • Aircraft carriers • Aircraft carriers • Foreign aid • Foreign aid • War on terrorism • War on terrorism • Intelligence operations • Intelligence operations • Wars in Iraq/Afghanistan • Wars in Iraq/Afghanistan • Oil price volatility • Oil price volatility q q g g p p y y • Maintain troops overseas • Maintain troops overseas • Homeland security • Homeland security S ource: S tern, R.J., United S tates cost of military force proj ection in the Persian Gulf, 1976– 2007. Energy Policy (2010), doi:10.1016/ j .enpol.2010.01.013

  22. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  23. Fallacy: Fallacy: y y “Any loan to real estate is a good loan … “Any loan to real estate is a good loan … ” ”

  24. Home prices don’t go up forever Home prices don’t go up forever Ch Change in home prices in 121 years Ch Change in home prices in 121 years i h i h i i i 121 i 121 Great Great 70’s 70’s 80’s 80’s Latest Latest 30% 30% Depression Depression p Boom Boom Boom Boom Boom Boom WWI WWI WWI WWI WWII WWII WWII WWII The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. image and then insert it again. may have to delete the image and then insert it again. the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% 1890 1890 1900 1900 1910 1910 1920 1920 1930 1930 1940 1940 1950 1950 1960 1960 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 S ources : Robert S hiller, Milken Institute.

  25. Average Size of American Houses Average Size of American Houses square feet square feet 2,469 2 469 2 469 2,469 2 500 2 500 2,500 2,500 2,135 2,135 2 000 2 000 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1 500 1 500 1 000 1 000 1,000 1,000 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2006 2006 2009 2009 S ource: National Association of Home Builders / U.S . Census Bureau

  26. Home Sizes: U.S. vs. Asia Home Sizes: U.S. vs. Asia square feet square feet 2,469 2,469 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1 500 1 500 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 500 500 Hong Hong Japan Japan India India China China Singapore Singapore U.S. U.S. South South Kong Kong Korea Korea S ource: Mr & Mrs Asia - CLS A

  27. Consumer Spending Consumer Spending U.S. U.S. Asia Asia Housing Housing Housing Housing 33% 33% 33% 33% Food Food Food Food 23% 23% 23% 23% Transportation Transportation 18% 18% Supplemental Education Supplemental Education 15% 15% Food Food 13% 13% Housing Housing 10% 10% Insurance/pensions Insurance/pensions 11% 11% Clothing Clothing 8% 8% Healthcare Healthcare 6% 6% Other Other 8% 8% Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment 5% 5% 5% 5% Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation 6% 6% 6% 6% Apparel and services Apparel and services 4% 4% Healthcare Healthcare 5% 5% Supplemental Education Supplemental Education pp pp 2% 2% Communication Communication 5% 5% S ource: U.S . Bureau of Labor S tatistics/ CLS A

  28. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  29. When Social Security was introduced in When Social Security was introduced in 1935 the average life span in the U S was 1935 the average life span in the U S was 1935, the average life span in the U.S. was 1935, the average life span in the U.S. was 61.7 years. 61.7 years. In 2009, life expectancy in the U.S. In 2009, life expectancy in the U.S. reached 78.1 years. reached 78.1 years. reached 78.1 years. reached 78.1 years. S ources: tatistics, Nat ional Vit al S t at ist ics Report s, vol. 54, no. 19, June 28, 2006. National Center for Health S U.S . Census Bureau, International Database.

  30. Longer Life Expectancy; Longer Retirements Longer Life Expectancy; Longer Retirements F France France F 95 95 Women Women Men Men Life Expectancy Life Expectancy Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at age 65 at age 65 85 85 28.6 28.6 32.9 32.9 26.2 30.8 26.2 30.8 75 75 22.0 22.0 26.5 26.5 14.4 14.4 18.3 18.3 65 65 Retirement Age Retirement Age 55 55 55 55 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 Source: OECD Ageing and Employment Policies, France 2005

  31. Pensions for Greece’s Most Dangerous Jobs Pensions for Greece’s Most Dangerous Jobs • High-risk workers are eligible for early retirement: • High-risk workers are eligible for early retirement: • Full government pension benefits • Full government pension benefits • Age 50 for women, 55 for men • Age 50 for women, 55 for men Age 50 for women, 55 for men Age 50 for women, 55 for men • Who qualifies? • Who qualifies? • 580 job categories • 580 job categories • 700,000 workers (14% • 700,000 workers (14% of workforce) of workforce) S ource: NY Times, 3/ 11/ 10.

  32. High-Risk Occupations in Greece High-Risk Occupations in Greece Bomb Disposal Bomb Disposal Coal Mining Coal Mining S ource: NY Times, 3/ 11/ 10.

  33. High-Risk Occupations in Greece High-Risk Occupations in Greece Radio Hosts? Radio Hosts? Hairdressers? Hairdressers? (“Bacteria on microphones”) (“Bacteria on microphones”) ( Bacteria on microphones ) ( Bacteria on microphones ) (“Exposure to hair dyes”) (“Exposure to hair dyes”) ( Exposure to hair dyes ) ( Exposure to hair dyes ) S ource: NY Times, 3/ 11/ 10.

  34. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  35. Between 1870 and 1950, Americans added Between 1870 and 1950, Americans added Between 1870 and 1950, Americans added Between 1870 and 1950, Americans added almost one year of education each decade. almost one year of education each decade. By 1960, the highest average grade level in the By 1960, the highest average grade level in the U.S. exceeded every other nation by two U.S. exceeded every other nation by two years. years. Since 1960, we have made no progress and Since 1960, we have made no progress and several other nations have surpassed us. several other nations have surpassed us. S ource: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz / The Race between Education and Technology

  36. “If “If an unfriendly “If “If an unfriendly f i f i dl dl foreign power had foreign power had attempted to impose on attempted to impose on tt tt t d t i t d t i America the mediocre America the mediocre educational educational d d ti ti l l performance that exists performance that exists t d today, we might have today, we might have t d i ht h i ht h viewed it as an act of viewed it as an act of war.” war.” ” ” - 1983 - 1983

  37. Skilled and Unskilled Jobs Skilled and Unskilled Jobs Skilled and Unskilled Jobs Skilled and Unskilled Jobs 1950 1950 1950 1950 T d T d Today Today 65% 60% 60% Skilled Skill d Unskilled 20% 20% 20% 15% Semi- Semi- Skilled Skilled skilled skilled Unskilled

  38. The Jobs Problem The Jobs Problem (It Isn’t Jobs – It’s Trained Workers) (It Isn’t Jobs – It’s Trained Workers) Millions Millions 125 125 123,000,000 100 100 hi h high-skilled jobs kill d j b 75 75 will be available in 2020 50 50 50 50 50 000 000 50,000,000 25 25 Americans will qualify for those jobs j Source: Edward Gordon, “Winning the Global Talent Showdown”

  39. Chi China China Chi • Parents spend an average • Parents spend an average Parents spend an average Parents spend an average of 15% of 15% on their children’s on their children’s education … education … and only 10% and only 10% on housing. on housing. • 55% • 55% 55% 55% of parents in China of parents in China of parents in China of parents in China send their children for send their children for extra lessons in English. extra lessons in English.

  40. Beverly Hills Beverly Hills Beverly Hills Beverly Hills High School High School 46 th percentile in 46 th percentile in math math 87.7% 87.7% of students of students rank proficient or rank proficient or rank “proficient” or rank “proficient” or 34 th percentile in 34 th percentile in above in math. above in math. math math Sources: City-Data.com / Global Report Card (Jay Greene and Josh McGee)

  41. We must not be afraid of We must not be afraid of f f f f competition. competition. We must be ready to We must be ready to We must be ready to We must be ready to compete. compete.

  42. Eddie The Eagle Edwards Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards Eddie The Eagle Edwards Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards • • 1988 Calgary Olympics 1988 Calgary Olympics • • Britain’s first (and last!) ski Britain’s first (and last!) ski jumper jumper • • Last place finish with a jump Last place finish with a jump of 253 feet of 253 feet The gold-medal jump was 412 feet.

  43. Eddie The Eagle Edwards Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards Eddie The Eagle Edwards Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards • • 1988 Calgary Olympics 1988 Calgary Olympics • • Britain’s first (and last!) ski Britain’s first (and last!) ski jumper jumper • • Last place finish with a jump Last place finish with a jump of 253 feet of 253 feet Eddie “The Eagle” Rule: Eddie “The Eagle” Rule: Olympic qualifiers must compete in international events and place Olympic qualifiers must compete in international events and place in the Top 30 percent or Top 50 competitors. in the Top 30 percent or Top 50 competitors.

  44. M lti l M lti l Multiple career paths Multiple career paths th th • • • • Ongoing applied professional growth Ongoing applied professional growth • • Instructionally focused accountability Instructionally focused accountability Performance based compensation Performance based compensation Performance-based compensation Performance-based compensation • • • • National Institute for Excellence in Teaching (NIET)

  45. • 284 Scholars since program began in 1989 • 284 Scholars since program began in 1989 p p g g g g • 80 born outside the United States • 80 born outside the United States • 34 countries of origin • 34 countries of origin • 34 countries of origin • 34 countries of origin • 205 Scholars have one or more parents born • 205 Scholars have one or more parents born outside the U.S. outside the U.S. • 99 colleges attended • 99 colleges attended • 54 are married • 54 are married • 54 are married • 54 are married • 48 children of Milken Scholars • 48 children of Milken Scholars

  46. Selected colleges and universities in the Selected colleges and universities in the Milken Scholars program: Milken Scholars program: Milken Scholars program: Milken Scholars program: � 52 to Harvard � 52 to Harvard � � 11 to Penn 11 to Penn � 34 to Stanford � 34 to Stanford � 34 to Stanford � 34 to Stanford � � � � 11 to M I T 11 to M I T 11 to M.I.T. 11 to M.I.T. � 25 to Yale � 25 to Yale � � 8 to Princeton 8 to Princeton � 21 to Berkeley � 21 to Berkeley � 21 to Berkeley � 21 to Berkeley � � � � 6 to Brown 6 to Brown 6 to Brown 6 to Brown � 14 to Columbia � 14 to Columbia � � 5 to Cornell 5 to Cornell

  47. More than More than More than More than 30,000 students 30,000 students

  48. Mike’s Math Club in China Mike’s Math Club in China

  49. 2012: More than 2 500 teachers 2012: More than 2 500 teachers 2012: More than 2,500 teachers 2012: More than 2,500 teachers

  50. Return on Human Capital Investment Return on Human Capital Investment “The rate of return to a dollar “The rate of return to a dollar investment made while a investment made while a person is young is higher than person is young is higher than Preschool Preschool the rate of return to the same the rate of return to the same dollar made at a later age.” dollar made at a later age.” Programs Programs Nobel Prize Economist Nobel Prize Economist Return Return James Heckman James Heckman School School Opportunity Cost of Funds Opportunity Cost of Funds Job Training Job Training Age Age S ource: James Heckman, University of Chicago

  51. Ability to learn Ability to learn b l ty to lea b l ty to lea Love of learning Love of learning Love of learning Love of learning

  52. Knowledge Universe Knowledge Universe

  53. Knowledge Universe International Knowledge Universe International Singapore, Malaysia, India, United Kingdom Singapore, Malaysia, India, United Kingdom

  54. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  55. Highly skilled, entrepreneurial Highly skilled, entrepreneurial and educated immigrants are and educated immigrants are crucial to prosperity. crucial to prosperity. l l

  56. Building Human Capital Through Immigration Building Human Capital Through Immigration Albert Einstein Albert Einstein Jerry Yang Jerry Yang Madeleine Albright Madeleine Albright (Germany) (Germany) (Taiwan) (Taiwan) (Czechoslovakia) (Czechoslovakia) Sergey Brin Sergey Brin Alex. Graham Bell Alex. Graham Bell Gustavo Dudamel Gustavo Dudamel (Russia) (Russia) (Scotland) (Scotland) (Venezuela) (Venezuela)

  57. Doctorates Awarded in the U.S. Doctorates Awarded in the U.S. Doctorates Awarded in the U.S. Doctorates Awarded in the U.S. 1/3 of all doctoral students in the U S 1/3 of all doctoral students in the U S 1/3 of all doctoral students in the U.S. 1/3 of all doctoral students in the U.S. • • • • are foreign born, up from one in ten 30 are foreign born, up from one in ten 30 years ago. years ago years ago. years ago 84% of their doctorates are in 84% of their doctorates are in 84% of their doctorates are in 84% of their doctorates are in • • engineering and the sciences. engineering and the sciences. S ources: National S cience Foundation/ Div of S cience Resource S tatistics

  58. Immigrants in Silicon Valley Immigrants in Silicon Valley • • More than half of Silicon Valley’s science and More than half of Silicon Valley’s science and engineering workforce is foreign born engineering workforce is foreign born engineering workforce is foreign-born. engineering workforce is foreign-born. More than 15 percent of Silicon Valley start- More than 15 percent of Silicon Valley start- p p y y • • up companies were founded by immigrants up companies were founded by immigrants from India. from India. Another 13 percent had CEOs from China or Another 13 percent had CEOs from China or • • Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan. Taiwan. S ources: Vivek Wadhwa, Duke University

  59. 60% 60% of the nearly 1 million Chinese of the nearly 1 million Chinese people with assets over 10 million yuan people with assets over 10 million yuan people with assets over 10 million yuan people with assets over 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) are thinking about ($1.6 million) are thinking about emigrating to the U S or Europe emigrating to the U S or Europe emigrating to the U.S. or Europe. emigrating to the U.S. or Europe. S ource: U.S . Department of Homeland S ecurity (WS J 2/ 22/ 12 “ Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S ./ Europe)

  60. Where’s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where s Sputnik? Where’s Sputnik? • Energy Energy gy gy • Housing Housing • • Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements Entitlements • Education Education • Immigration Immigration • Health Health Health Health

  61. Half of all economic growth in the Half of all economic growth in the last two centuries can be traced last two centuries can be traced l l i i b b d d to medical research advances. to medical research advances. to medical research advances. to medical research advances.

  62. Three Solutions Three Solutions Three Solutions Three Solutions to Healthcare Challenges to Healthcare Challenges • Prevention • Prevention • Cost reduction • Cost reduction • Research leading to cures • Research leading to cures Research leading to cures Research leading to cures

  63. Lifestyle Makes a Difference Lifestyle Makes a Difference y 70% 70% of health-care spending – of health-care spending – about $2.5 trillion – is spent on about $2.5 trillion – is spent on lifestyle-related diseases. lif lif lifestyle-related diseases. l l l l d di d di 30% 30% is spent on is spent on hereditary diseases hereditary diseases hereditary diseases. hereditary diseases. U S Economy U S Economy U.S. Economy U.S. Economy $14.6 trillion $14.6 trillion S ources: CIA Handbook / Centers for Medicare and Medicaid S ervices (2009)

  64. Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults 1991 1991 1991 1991 <15% <15% >15% >15% S ource: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  65. Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults 2011 2011 2011 2011 20-24% 20-24% 25-30% 25-30% > 30% > 30% S ource: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  66. Obesity Rates: U.S. vs. World Obesity Rates: U.S. vs. World Obesity Rates: U.S. vs. World Obesity Rates: U.S. vs. World 36.5% MEN 2002 U.S. U.S. 2005 41.8% 41.8% WOMEN WOMEN 24.0% Mexico Mexico 34.3% 34.3% 21.6% U.K. U.K. 24.2% 24.2% 24 2% 24 2% 20.9% Germany Germany 20.4% 20.4% 7.8% 7 8% F France France 6.6% 6.6% 1.6% 1.6% China China 1.9% 1 9% 1 9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% Japan Japan 1.5% 1.5% S ource: World Health Organization / Estimated obesity rates for people aged 15 years and older / 2005

  67. The Supersize Investment The Supersize Investment A Negative Return A Negative Return For only 67 cents you can step up For only 67 cents you can step up For only 67 cents you can step up For only 67 cents you can step up Yet, every time you supersize, it costs Yet, every time you supersize, it costs Yet, every time you supersize, it costs Yet, every time you supersize, it costs to a larger order of French fries to a larger order of French fries you $8 in extra lifetime spending on you $8 in extra lifetime spending on and a 32-ounce soda … and a 32-ounce soda … food, gas and medical care to sustain a food, gas and medical care to sustain a heavier body. heavier body. heavier body. heavier body. S ource: Journal of the American College of Nutrition

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