De ma nd F o re c a st Adviso ry Co mmitte e Me e ting 3 in Pre pa ra tio n fo r the Se ve nth Po we r Pla n November 7 th , 2014 Massoud Jourabchi Charlie Grist Steve Simmons 1
Dra ft Ag e nda Welcom e and introductions Review of Agenda 9:0 0 to 9:0 5 Review of com ponents of prelim inary load forecast 9:0 5 to 10 :20 Review of Econom ic Drivers- July 20 13 Review of Federal Standards- June 20 14 – Charlie Grist Miscellaneous end-uses Rooftop Solar – Charlie Grist Electric Vehicles In-door Ag – Washington I50 2/ Oregon Data Centers 10 :20 -10 :30 Break 10 :30 -11:55 Discussion on prelim inary load forecast To Freeze or not to Freeze or when to Freeze- Charlie Grist Draft Sector level forecasts Forecast Range Next steps/ Next m eeting 11:55 to 12:0 0 2
K e y De mo g ra phic a nd E c o no mic Drive rs Population growth Business drivers New homes Commercial floor space Industrial output Natural Gas Prices 3
Re g io na l Po pula tio n Regi egiona onal Popul opulat ation on (1000) 1000) 1985-2014 2015-2035 18000 1800 ID 1.73% 1.30% 1600 16000 MT 0.77% 0.50% WA 1.64% 0.90% 14000 1400 OR 1.37% 0.80% 1200 12000 4 States 1.50% 0.90% 10000 1000 USA 1.03% 0.90% Average Annual Addition to 8000 8000 Population (1000) 1985-2015 2015-2035 ID 21 24 6000 6000 MT 7 6 4000 4000 WA 90 66 OR 43 34 2000 2000 4 States 162 130 0 Overall regional population growth projected 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2035 2035 to slow down. ID ID MT MT OR WA WA Northwest population remains about 4% of national population. 4
Histo ric a nd fo re c a ste d Numb e r o f Ne w Ho me s (1000) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Single Family Multi Family Other Family • Source: HIS_GI August 2014 state level forecast. 5
Ma rke t sha re a nd a nnua l Gro wth Ra te fo r re side ntia l units AAGR 2015-2020 2021-2035 Single Family 1.34% 1.00% Multi Family 2.42% 1.75% Other Family 0.35% 0.34% Market share 1985 2015 2035 Single Family 75% 71% 70% Multi Family 16% 19% 22% Other Family 9% 10% 8% 6
E stima te d Curre nt Sto c k o f Co mme rc ia l Building * Estimated 2013 Commercial SQF (millions) Building type Idaho Montana Oregon Washington Region office 78 54 213 402 747 Retail 69 46 170 295 581 hospital 15 12 30 54 111 Elder care 24 18 69 106 217 Hotel 15 20 38 54 127 Restaurant 21 17 60 95 193 Grocery 17 14 43 51 147 K-12 34 24 66 146 268 University 34 27 93 167 321 Warehouse 38 23 91 137 290 Assembly 31 27 104 134 295 Other 7 3 25 19 55 Grand Total 383 286 1,003 1,681 3,352 Subject to change as CBSA data becomes available 7
Co mme rc ia l Se c to r* Annual Growth Rate 2005-2011 2011-2020 2020-2035 Employment 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% Floor space Stock Req. 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% Millions of square Feet Cumulative Annual Average 1985-2011 Addition 1,406 52 2015-2035 Requirement 951 40 * Subject to change as Commercial Building Stock Assessment becomes available 8
Industrial Output (billions of 2012 dollars) 100 90 80 70 60 Montana Idaho 50 Washington 40 Oregon 30 20 10 - 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 • Source: GI March 2014 state level forecast, modified by state economists inputs and smoothed.. • Subject to change from finding from Industrial Facilities Site Assessment (IFSA) 9
Assume d a g g re g a te d Ave ra g e Annua l Gro wth Ra te Ac ro ss Sc e na rio s Low Med High Residential 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% Commercial 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% Industrial 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% Agriculture 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 10
Na tura l Ga s Pric e s 2012$ a nd No mina l $ Proposed Henry Hub Price Forecasts as of July 2014 $2012/MMBTU Council L Council M Council H 2013 3.7 3.7 3.7 2014 3.9 4.7 4.9 2015 4.0 4.6 5.1 2020 3.9 5.0 6.0 2025 3.8 5.7 7.3 2030 3.5 6.6 8.9 2035 3.2 7.4 10.8 3.8 5.8 7.5 Average 2015-2035 Proposed Henry Hub Price Forecasts as of July 2014 Nominal Dollars Council L Council M Council H 2014 4.0 4.9 5.1 2015 4.2 4.8 5.3 2020 4.4 5.7 6.8 2025 4.7 7.1 9.1 2030 4.7 8.9 12.0 2035 4.7 11.0 16.0 5.7 8.7 11.4 Average 2015-2035 11
F e e db a c k Do the current key drivers seem reasonable? Are we missing an important driver? Are we missing economic trends? 12
F e de ra l Sta nda rds 13
F e de ra l Sta nda rds In our June 2014 meeting we discussed the many federal standards that have been activated and are going to be active during the forecast horizon. Currently there are minimum energy efficiency standards for more than 50 categories of appliances and equipment. Products covered by standards represent about 90% of home energy use, 60% of commercial building use, and 29% of industrial energy use. DOE must now review each product standard every six years to determine whether it should be revised 14
I mplic a tio n fo r the Se ve nth Pla n Compared to the Sixth Plan: Load forecast is lower, particularly over the long term Remaining conservation potential will be lower But not as much lower as the load forecast, since standard impact all units, but conservation assessment assumes less than 100% program success Conservation programs will need adjust their focus to measures less impacted by federal standards 15
I mpa c t Ana lysis F o c use s Ana lysis o n T he se Sta nda rds • Residential Dishwashers • Residential Clothes Washers • Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Residential • External Power Supply • Mercury Vapor Lamp Ballasts • Residential Refrigerators and • Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts Freezers • General Service Fluorescent Residential Water Heater • Lamps Lighting • Residential Heat Pumps • General Service Incandescent • Torchieres Lamps • Ceiling Fan Lighting Kits • Incandescent Reflector Lamps Commercial/Industrial • Walk-in Coolers and Freezers • Candelabra& Intermediate Base • Commercial Refrigeration Products Incandescent Lamps • Commercial Clothes Washers • Medium Base Compact • Pre-rinse Spray Valve Fluorescent Lamps • Commercial CAC and Heat Pumps • High Intensity Discharge Lamps • Packaged Terminal AC and HP • Illuminated Exit Signs • Electric Motors 16 • Distribution Transformers
Major Product Categories Covered by Federal Efficiency Standards Battery Chargers and External Power Supplies Metal Halide Lamps Fixtures Ceiling Fan Light Kits Residential & Commercial Clothes Washers Pool heaters Commercial Ice Makers Refrigerated Beverage Vending Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners and Heat Machines Pumps Commercial Packaged Heating and Cooling Residential Central Air Conditioners Equipment and Heat Pumps Residential & Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers Residential Clothes Dryers Commercial Warm Air Furnaces Residential & Commercial Water Heaters and Unfired Residential Dishwashers Water Heater Tanks Residential Furnaces & Boilers Compact Fluorescent Lamps Residential Ranges and Ovens Dehumidifiers Direct heating equipment Room Air Conditioners Electric Motors Single Packaged Vertical Air Exit Signs Conditioners and Heat Pumps General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Ballasts General Service Incandescent Lamps Torchiers Incandescent Reflector Lamps Traffic and Pedestrian Signal Low & Medium Voltage Transformers Walk-in Coolers and Walk-In Freezers 17
E stima te d re duc tio n fro m L o a ds due to sta nda rds* 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Peak MW 80 317 420 508 558 Average MW 66 245 327 396 433 Low load hours MW 28 121 164 202 224 *Excludes improvements in low and medium size transformer efficiencies ` ~200 MWa. Also excludes savings from Misc. appliances not modeled explicitly but were modeled in the MELS section. Savings starts in 2013. Impact of standards prior to 2013 not included. 18
F e e db a c k How are you incorporating federal standards in your load forecast? 19
Wha t Are ME L s (Plug lo a ds)? 20
Me tho do lo g y fo r e stima ting L o a d fo r ME L S We used the DOE report- “Analysis and representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS”- DEC 2013 The national unit counts were scaled to the region. Marginal EUI and equipment lives were used to develop stock consumption levels. We estimated 1985-2035 loads for each enduse. The results is shown in the next slide. 21
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