Agenda Welcom e and introductions Im pact of Federal Standards - PDF document

6/26/2014 De ma nd F o re c a st Adviso ry Co mmitte e Me e ting 2 in Pre pa ra tio n fo r the Se ve nth Po we r Pla n June 26, 2014 Tom Eckman Tom Eckman Charlie Grist Massoud Jourabchi 1 Agenda  Welcom e and introductions  Im pact of Federal Standards on future loads 1:40 to 2:40  New data on load shape of appliances 2:45 to 3:15 Next steps in 7 th Plan developm ent  3:15 to 3:30 2 1

6/26/2014 Overview of Federal Appliance Standards and and Their Impact on Regional Loads June 26, 2014 3 Sa ving s fro m Ma ny Me c ha nisms 4 2

6/26/2014 T o da y’ s Pre se nta tio n  Short history and “primer” on federal efficiency standards for appliance, ffi i t d d f li equipment and lighting  Why standards are important mechanism for capturing savings  Historical and projected impact of federal  Historical and projected impact of federal efficiency standards on regional loads 5 L e g isla tive Histo ry o f F e de ra l Applia nc e Sta nda rds Energy Policy and The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (EPCA Conservation Act of 1987 (N AECA) establishes of test Energy Policy Act 2005 sets establishes minimum efficiency procedures, labeling, and p g new standards for 16 standards for common household standards for common household energy targets for consumer products and directed DOE appliances and DOE review products. Standards too to set standards via sched ules follow if voluntary targets rulemaking for another five. aren’t met. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 EPCA amended to The Energy Independence (EPAct) adds standards for some directs the and Security Act (EISA fluorescent and incandescent Department of Energy 2007 ), enacted new or reflector lamps, plumbing products, (DOE) to establish updated standards for 13 electric motors, commercial water energy conservation products. EISA also included heaters, and heating, ventilation, standards for a requirement that DOE and air conditioning (HVAC) consumer products. maintain a schedule to systems. EPAct also authorized DOE regularly review and update regularly review and update to develop of standards for to develop of standards for all standards and test additional products . procedures. 1975 1979 1987 1992 2005 2007 2013 6 3

6/26/2014 Sta nda rds Pro c e ss Sub je c t to Po litic a l Clima te States file lawsuit More New against DOE for failure DOE authorized to update standards on Standards Set by y to set efficiency ffi i mandated schedule Congress targets and DOE, under standards court supervised DOE falls behind schedule, gets on updating over on track 25 standards 1975 1979 1987 1992 2005 2007 2013 Carter Carter Reagan Reagan Bush Bush Clinton Clinton Bush II Bush II Obama Obama 7 Curre nt Sta tus  Currently there are minimum energy efficiency standards for more than 50 efficiency standards for more than 50 categories of appliances and equipment.  Products covered by standards represent about 90% of home energy use, 60% of commercial building use, and 29% of industrial energy use. gy  DOE must now review each product standard every six years to determine whether it should be revised 8 4

6/26/2014 Major Product Categories Covered by Federal Efficiency Standards  Battery Chargers and External Power Supplies  Metal Halide Lamps Fixtures  Ceiling Fan Light Kits  Residential & Commercial Clothes Washers  Pool heaters   Commercial Ice Makers Commercial Ice Makers  Refrigerated Beverage Vending  Commercial Packaged Air Conditioners and Heat Machines Pumps  Commercial Packaged Heating and Cooling  Residential Central Air Conditioners Equipment and Heat Pumps  Residential & Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers  Residential Clothes Dryers  Commercial Warm Air Furnaces  Residential & Commercial Water Heaters and Unfired  Residential Dishwashers Water Heater Tanks Residential Furnaces & Boilers   Compact Fluorescent Lamps   Residential Ranges and Ovens Dehumidifiers   Direct heating equipment Direct heating equipment  R Room Air Conditioners Ai C diti  Electric Motors  Single Packaged Vertical Air  Exit Signs Conditioners and Heat Pumps  General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Ballasts  General Service Incandescent Lamps  Torchiers  Incandescent Reflector Lamps  Traffic and Pedestrian Signal  Low & Medium Voltage Transformers  Walk-in Coolers and Walk-In Freezers 9 Why F e de ra l E ffic ie nc y Sta nda rds Are Va lua b le  Lower Cost – Standards produce savings at l “ l ” b h id lower “total cost” because they avoid program administrative costs.  Larger Savings -- Standards effect the entire market while programs effect only a portion of the market resulting in greater total savings for comparable improvements in efficiency  Greater Equity -- The “compliance cost” of meeting a standard is borne by the consumers who benefit from the increased efficiency. 10 5

6/26/2014 Historical Standards Impacts – Residential Refrigerators 1,400 1983 Plan Baseline 1983 Plan Baseline Wh) 1,200 nnual Energy Use (kW 1,000 Prior Federal Prior Federal Standards Standards 800 600 400 200 200 A New New Federal Federal Standards Standards 0 Year 11 Historical Standards Impact – Residential Freezers 1000 1983 Plan Baseline 1983 Plan Baseline 900 Wh) nnual Energy Use (kW 800 800 Prior Federal Standards 700 600 500 400 300 200 New Federal Std. N F d l Std A 100 0 Year 12 6

6/26/2014 Standards Impact – Residential Dishwashers 700 1983 Plan Baseline 1983 Plan Baseline 600 Prior Federal Standards Wh) nnual Energy Use (kW 500 400 300 200 100 100 An New Federal Standard 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year 13 Standards Impact – Residential Clothes Washers 1200 1983 Plan Baseline 1983 Plan Baseline Prior Federal Standards h) 1000 nual Energy Use (kWh 800 600 400 200 Ann New Federal Standards 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year 14 7

6/26/2014 Sta te E ne rg y Co de s a nd F e de ra l Sta nda rds Re duc e d 2010 Re g io na l Re ta il Sa le s b y Appro xima te ly 2300 MWa * 2500 Irrigation Transportation Transportation 2000 Average Megawatts Industrial Commercial 1500 Residential 1000 500 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 *Reflects Codes and and Standards Adopted Prior to Sixth Plan 15 Federal Standards Contribute About 20% of Cumulative Regional Conservation Savings 6,000 MWa) Federal Standards 5,000 5 000 St t C d State Codes mulative Savings (M NEEA Programs 4,000 BPA and Utility Programs 3,000 2,000 Cum 1,000 - 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 16 8

6/26/2014 24 Ne w F e de ra l E ffic ie nc y Sta nda rds T a ke E ffe c t b y 2017 Ca pturing So me o f the 6 th Pla n’ s E ffic ie nc y Po te ntia l Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Commercial Refrigeration External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens Distribution Transforments Cl th Clothes Washers W h Clothes Dryers Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps Small Electric Motors Water Heaters Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts Room Air Conditioners Refrigerators and Freezers Commercial Central AC and Heat Pumps Dishwashers Clothes Washers, Commercial Pool Heaters Direct Heating Equipment Incandescent Reflector Lamps p General Service Fluorescent Lamps Vending Machines Refrigeration Equipment, Commercial Boilers, Commercial Ranges and Ovens 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year New Standard Takes Effect 17 Published Published 02/03/14 02/03/14 Published Published 06/25/14 06/25/14 Published Published 01/28/14 01/28/14 Published Published Published Published 03/31/14 03/31/14 Published Published 05/09/14 05/09/14 And There Are And There Are More on the Way More on the Way More on the Way More on the Way – DOE 2014 DOE 2014 Rulemaking Rulemaking Schedule Schedule 18 9

6/26/2014 I mpa c t o n No rthwe st  Council staff is working Bonneville and its consultant to estimate the impact of consultant to estimate the impact of standards adopted since the Sixth Plan  Objective of analysis  Determine contribution of standards savings toward achievement of the Sixth Plan conservation targets for 2010 – 2015  Determine implications for the Seventh Plan’s forecast of post-2015 load growth and remaining conservation potential 19 Ana lytic a l Appro a c h  Focus on federal standards not included in Sixth Plan baseline Sixth Plan baseline  Target analysis on standards with largest impact  Collect data on actual units shipped and their efficiency  Account for interactions between standards  Account for interactions between standards, state energy codes and utility programs to avoid “double counting” of savings  Determine “net impact” of standards 20 10