NORTHERN LEADERS’ FORUM METRICS OF NORTHERN GROWTH 10 NOVEMBER 2015, THUNDER BAY
Northern Growth – Categories of regional and district level economic measures 1. Governance 2. Regional GDP 3. Population 4. Migration 5. Dependency 6. Labour 7. Education 8. Human Capital & Labour Productivity 9. Occupational Demand 10. Trade NOTE 1: Social and Environmental measures are pending NOTE 2: Community level measures will follow as available
Any suggestions for other measures?
Measures we hope to add Annual or other more “current” data • Other “free” StatsCan data • o Labour Force Survey o Job Vacancy & Wage Survey Other “for a fee” StatsCan data • o Must “add value” – so % change or indices Health data • Other education data EQO or PSE • CMHC housing market information • Municipal FIR returns/FN information returns • Trade & commerce data/Tourism data • “Vital signs” and other social indicators •
GDP (Chained 2007 dollars x 1,000,000) Northwest Ontario Northeast Ontario 24,000 10,500 23,500 10,000 23,000 22,500 9,500 22,000 21,500 9,000 21,000 8,500 20,500 20,000 8,000 19,500 19,000 7,500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282 -0125 and 379-0030.
GDP by goods-producing industry (chained 2007 dollars x1,000,000) Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil Utilities 3.3 % Agriculture 4.7 % and gas 10.2 % 0.5 % 0.3 % 18.3 % 1,000 600 900 160 120 6,000 3,000 500 800 140 100 5,000 2,500 700 400 120 600 80 4,000 2,000 100 500 300 3,000 1,500 80 60 400 200 60 300 2,000 1,000 40 40 200 100 1,000 500 20 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Manufacturing Construction 4.1 % 7.7 % 5.6 % 6.0 % 1,600 650 2,400 1,600 1,500 2,300 1,400 600 1,400 2,200 1,200 550 1,300 2,100 1,000 1,200 500 2,000 1,100 800 1,900 450 1,000 600 1,800 900 400 400 1,700 800 350 200 1,600 700 1,500 0 600 300 Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282 -0125 and 379-0030.
GDP by services-producing industry Transportation and Warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate 12.5 % Trade (Wholesale and Retail) 3.9 % 5.1 % 10.2 % 11.7 % 13.9 % & leasing 3,300 1,200 1,100 550 3,100 3,000 1,400 1,150 1,050 500 2,900 2,900 1,100 1,300 1,000 2,700 2,800 1,050 450 1,200 950 2,500 2,700 1,000 2,300 2,600 1,100 900 400 950 2,100 2,500 1,000 850 900 1,900 2,400 350 900 800 850 1,700 2,300 1,500 800 750 300 2,200 800 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Professional, scientific & Business, building & other 6.5 % Educational services 6.7 % 3.3 % 3.4 % 2.9 % 3.2 % technical services support services 1,800 700 1,000 350 1,000 330 1,700 650 900 310 300 900 1,600 800 290 250 800 700 600 270 1,500 600 200 700 250 500 1,400 550 230 150 600 400 210 1,300 300 100 500 190 500 200 1,200 50 400 170 100 0 0 300 150 1,100 450 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282 -0125 and 379-0030.
GDP by services- producing industry cont’d Information, culture & Health care & social assistance Accommodation & recreation food services 9.4 % 11.2 % 3.3 % 3.4 % 2.1 % 2.3 % 2,300 1,050 1,000 400 700 310 380 2,200 290 1,000 650 900 360 2,100 270 950 600 340 800 2,000 250 320 900 550 1,900 700 300 230 850 500 280 1,800 210 600 260 800 450 1,700 190 240 500 750 400 1,600 170 220 1,500 700 400 200 350 150 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other services Public administration 1.9 % 2.4 % 8.3 % 11.3 % 530 215 2,450 1,050 510 205 1,000 2,250 490 195 950 470 185 2,050 900 450 175 850 1,850 430 165 800 410 155 1,650 750 390 145 700 1,450 370 135 650 350 125 1,250 600 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282 -0125 and 379-0030.
Population Projections Northeast districts - Cumulative population growth Northwest districts - Cumulative population growth 5% 5% Nipissing, 3.25% Kenora, 3.40% Parry Sound, 0.57% 0% 0% Manitoulin, 0.21% Greater Sudbury, 0.08% Thunder Bay, -2.56% -5% -5% Timiskaming, - 7.28% -10% Algoma, -10.15% Cochrane, -11.86% -10% -15% -15% -20% Sudbury, -19.96% Rainy River, -14.93% -25% -20% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013 - 2041” (Toronto, 2014).
Age Cohorts Northeast Ontario - Distribution of population by Northwest Ontario - Distribution of population by age age 90+ 90+ 2013 85-89 85-89 2041 80-84 80-84 2013 75-79 75-79 2041 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013 - 2041” (Toronto, 2014).
Projected Labour Supply in the Northwest * NE in progress Projected Aboriginal Labour Force, 2013-41 Projected Labour Supply (2013=100) 12,258 14,000 105 12,000 9,248 10,000 10,996 100 8,000 6,000 8,108 2,878 2,157 4,000 95 2,000 0 90.3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 90 Thunder Bay Kenora Rainy River 85 82 Aboriginal Share of the Labour Force (%) 80 79.7 50.0 44.0 75 40.0 40.3 27.4 30.0 27.0 70 69.0 22.8 20.0 18.4 16.5 65 10.0 10.8 - 60 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 N.W.O. Thunder Bay D. Kenora D. Rainy River D. N.W.O. Thunder Bay D. Kenora D. Rainy River D. Source: Moazzami , Bakhtiar. 2015. “Northwestern Ontario Districts.” Unpublished manuscript. Thunder Bay: Northern Policy Institute.
Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, table 051 -0053. -600 -400 -200 -400 -300 -200 -100 Youth net migration, by district (Northeast) 200 400 600 100 200 300 0 0 2001/2002 2001/2002 2002/2003 2002/2003 Greater Sudbury 2003/2004 2003/2004 2004/2005 2004/2005 Nipissing 2005/2006 2005/2006 2006/2007 2006/2007 2007/2008 2007/2008 2008/2009 2008/2009 2009/2010 2009/2010 2010/2011 2010/2011 2011/2012 2011/2012 2012/2013 2012/2013 2013/2014 2013/2014 -400 -300 -200 -100 -200 -150 -100 100 100 150 -50 50 0 0 2001/2002 2001/2002 2002/2003 2002/2003 2003/2004 2003/2004 Timiskaming Parry Sound 2004/2005 2004/2005 2005/2006 2005/2006 2006/2007 2006/2007 2007/2008 2007/2008 2008/2009 2008/2009 2009/2010 2009/2010 2010/2011 2010/2011 2011/2012 2011/2012 2012/2013 2012/2013 2013/2014 2013/2014 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -400 -300 -200 -100 100 100 0 0 2001/2002 2001/2002 2002/2003 2002/2003 2003/2004 2003/2004 2004/2005 2004/2005 Cochrane Manitoulin 2005/2006 2005/2006 2006/2007 2006/2007 2007/2008 2007/2008 2008/2009 2008/2009 2009/2010 2009/2010 2010/2011 2010/2011 2011/2012 2011/2012 2012/2013 2012/2013 2013/2014 2013/2014 -800 -600 -400 -200 -1000 200 1000 1500 -500 500 0 0 2001/2002 2001/2002 2002/2003 2002/2003 2003/2004 2003/2004 2004/2005 2004/2005 Sudbury 2005/2006 Algoma 2005/2006 2006/2007 2006/2007 2007/2008 2007/2008 2008/2009 2008/2009 2009/2010 2009/2010 2010/2011 2010/2011 2011/2012 2011/2012 2012/2013 2012/2013 2013/2014 2013/2014
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