Global FDI Inflows Distribution of Global FDI Inflows • Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23 % to $1.43 trillion. 1,92 1,87 -%23 1,57 1,57 • This is in contrast to the accelerated growth in 1,43 1,43 1,37 1,34 GDP and trade. 1,18 • The fall was caused in part by a 22 % decrease in the value of cross-border M&As. • The value of announced greenfield investment also decreased by 14 %. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (trillion $) 2
FDI INFLOWS BY GROUP OF ECONOMIES
FDI Inflows By Group of Economies • Inward FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 37 %, to $712 billion. • FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion. • FDI flows to transition economies declined by 27 %, to $47 billion, the second lowest level since 2005. (trillion $) 4
FDI Inflows to Developed Economies • FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 37 %, to $712 billion. 712 -37% 2017 • Cross-border M&As registered a 29 % decrease, with fewer of the megadeals and corporate restructurings that shaped 1133 2016 global investment patterns in 2016. 984 2015 • The strong decrease in inflows was in large part the effect of a return to prior levels in the United Kingdom and the 563 2014 United States, after spikes in 2016. 684 2013 • A significant reduction in the value of cross border M&As 857 and corporate reconfigurations (i.e. changes in legal or 2012 ownership structures of multinational enterprises (MNEs), 824 2011 including tax inversions) resulted in a decline of 40 % in flows in the United States. (billion $) • Similarly, the absence of the large megadeals that caused the anomalous peak in 2016 in FDI inflows in the United Kingdom caused a sharp fall of FDI in the country, to only $15 billion. 5
FDI Inflows to Developing and Transition Economies • FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion, seeing no recovery following the 10 % drop in 38 57 2016. 79 84 65 68 47 o Flows to developing Asia remained stable, at $476 billion. The region regained its position as the largest FDI recipient in the world. o FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose 8 % to reach $151 billion, lifted by that region’s economic 752 recovery. 704 688 671 675 671 646 o FDI flows to Africa continued to slide, reaching $42 billion, down 21 % from 2016. The decline was concentrated in the larger commodity exporters. • FDI flows to transition economies declined by 27 %, to $47 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 billion, the second lowest level since 2005. The decline Developing Economies Transition Economies reflects geopolitical uncertainties and stagnant investment in natural resources. (billion $) 6
FDI INFLOWS BY REGIONS
FDI Inflows By Regions • 524 Developing Asia regained its position as the largest FDI 494 475 476 recipient region. The largest three recipients were China, Hong Kong (China) and Singapore. • Inflows to North America fell by 39 %, partly due to 304 300 falling cross-border M&As in both Canada and the United States. • The decline in FDI flows to Africa was due largely to 140 151 weak oil prices and lingering effects from the commodity bust, as flows contracted in commodity- 64 53 47 42 exporting economies such as Egypt, Mozambique, the Congo, Nigeria and Angola. Developing Asia European Union North America Latin America Africa Transition and the Economies Caribbean • FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose 8 % to 2014 2015 2016 2017 reach $151 billion, lifted by that region’s economic recovery. 8
FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY & TURKEY’S RANK
Global FDI Inflows Ranking - I • Country 2016 (Billion $) 2017 (Billion $) 2016 Ranking 2017 Ranking Developed and Developing Economies are sharing of USA 457 275 1 1 Top-10. China 134 136 3 2 Hong Kong (China) 117 104 4 3 • 60 % of the global FDI flow was consituted to Top-10 Brazil 58 63 7 4 Singapore 77 62 6 5 countries and 78 % was to Top-20 countries. Netherlands 86 58 5 6 France 35 50 14 7 • Turkey in 2017; Australia 48 46 9 8 ➢ The ranking at global level was dropped by 3 Switzerland 48 41 8 9 India 44 40 11 10 layers and Turkey has become the 26th FDI Germany 17 35 19 11 attacting country in the world. Mexico 30 30 16 12 Ireland 15 29 20 13 ➢ In Developing Economies, Tukey has become Russia Federation 37 25 13 14 Canada 37 24 12 15 the 13th FDI attracting country, Indonesia 4 23 47 16 Spain 20 19 18 17 ➢ In Asia Region, Turkey has become the 8th FDI Israel 11.9 19 27 18 attracting country, Italy 22 17 17 19 Rep of South Korea 12.1 17 26 20 Sweden 12.1 15.3 25 21 ➢ In West Asia Region, Turkey has become the UK 196 15 2 21 most FDI attracting country. Colombia 14 14.5 22 23 Vietnam 12.6 14.1 24 24 Argentina 3 12 54 25 10 Turkey 13 11 23 26
Global FDI Inflows Ranking - II • FDI flows to France rose 42 % (from $35 billion to $50 Country 2016 (Billion $) 2017 (Billion $) 2016 Ranking 2017 Ranking billion), mainly due to large M&A deals such as the USA 457 275 1 1 China 134 136 3 2 acquisition of Sanofi’s animal health business by Hong Kong (China) 117 104 4 3 Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany). Brazil 58 63 7 4 Singapore 77 62 6 5 • Inflows more than doubled in Germany (to $35 billion), as Netherlands 86 58 5 6 France 35 50 14 7 cross-border M&As targeting assets in the country rose to Australia 48 46 9 8 $23 billion. Switzerland 48 41 8 9 India 44 40 11 10 • Indonesia registered the largest FDI increase in Germany 17 35 19 11 Mexico 30 30 16 12 developing Asia as a whole, with inflows rising fivefold to Ireland 15 29 20 13 a new record of $23 billion. Russia Federation 37 25 13 14 Canada 37 24 12 15 • The absence of the large megadeals that caused the Indonesia 4 23 47 16 Spain 20 19 18 17 anomalous peak in 2016 in FDI inflows in the United Israel 11.9 19 27 18 Kingdom caused a sharp fall of FDI in the country, to only Italy 22 17 17 19 $15 billion. (FDI inflow in 2016: $196 billion) Rep of South Korea 12.1 17 26 20 Sweden 12.1 15.3 25 21 • Flows into Argentina more than trebled to $11.9 billion UK 196 15 2 21 Colombia 14 14.5 22 23 on the back of the economic recovery and the Vietnam 12.6 14.1 24 24 introduction of new policies to attract investment and Argentina 3 12 54 25 11 upgrade infrastructure. Turkey 13 11 23 26
Global FDI Inflows / Doing Business Comparison Global FDI Doing Business Country 2017 Ranking 2017 Ranking USA 1 6 China 2 78 Hong Kong (China) 3 5 Brazil 4 125 Singapore 5 2 Netherlands 6 32 France 7 31 Australia 8 14 The results indicate that there is no Switzerland 9 33 India 10 100 correlation between Global FDI Germany 11 20 inflow ranking and Ease of Doing Mexico 12 49 Business ranking of countries. Ireland 13 17 Russia Federation 14 35 Canada 15 18 Indonesia 16 72 Spain 17 28 Israel 18 54 Italy 19 46 Rep of South Korea 20 4 Sweden 21 10 UK 21 7 Colombia 23 59 Vietnam 24 68 Argentina 25 117 12 Turkey 26 60
Global FDI Outflows Ranking 2016 2017 Country 2016 (Billion $) 2017 (Billion $) Ranking Ranking USA 280 342 1 1 • In Top-20 countries with most FDI outflows, there Japan 145 160 4 2 are 9 Developing Economies, China 196 125 2 3 UK -22 100 170 4 • FDI Outflow from Turkey; Hong Kong, China 60 83 8 5 o 2016- $ 2.746 billion Germany 51 82 9 6 o 2017- $ 2.630 billion Canada 73 80 5 7 France 63 58 7 8 Luxembourg 44 41 10 9 • Although the FDI inflow to the US has been Spain 38 41 11 10 declined significantly by 40 %, the US has remained Russian Federation 27 36 15 11 as the country with the most FDI outflow Rep of South Korea 30 32 12 12 Singapore 28 25 14 13 • Regarding the FDI outflows from the Developing Sweden 6 24 29 14 Economies, Asia region with a share of 92 % has Netherlands 172 23 3 15 Belgium 22 20 17 16 become the leading region with slight decrease of Thailand 12 19 22 17 1 % and was recorded as $381 billion. Ireland 29 19 13 18 United Arab Emirates 13 14 21 19 Taiwan 18 11 18 20 India 5 11 30 21 Austria -3 10 164 22 Denmark 9 10 23 23 13 Turkey 3 3 35 36
FDI to Turkey was recorded as $11 billion in 2017 Turkey’s Share in the Global FDI 2016 (%) 2017 (%) T urkey’s Share in the Global FDI (%) 1.15% 0.86% Share in the West Asia 42 42.5 0.90% 0.90% 1% 0.91% 0.80 0.74% Share in the Developing Asia 2,7 2.3 0.76% 0.71% 0.84% 0.20% 0.41% 0.51% Share in the Developing 0.20% 1,9 1.6 Economies Share in the World 0,80 0.76 Turkey FDI Inflows ($ Billion) 22,0 20,2 19,8 17,2 16,1 12,3 12,1 13,3 12,0 10,9 10,0 9,1 8,6 1,7 2,8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 14
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