Is it different this time? Can the jobs boom last? Challenges for employment and skills while Brexit and government uncertainty goes on (and on) Paul Bivand AD Statistics & Analysis, Learning & Work Institute Duncan Melville Chief Economist, Learning & Work Institute 10 July 2019
State of the labour market 2019
Employment, unemployment and inactivity rates (aged 16-64)
Underemployment and labour market slack
Labour costs and productivity
Regions: employment rates
Flows in the labour market
Job starters from unemployment or inactivity
Flow rates out of employment
Labour market flows in 2018
Are disadvantaged employment gaps closing?
People aged 16-24
Single parents
People aged 50-64
People with disabilities
How is the Work and Health programme doing? Starts to Feb 19
The Work and Health Programme – what was planned – job outturn Planned Outturn 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Months since start
People with low qualifications
Social tenants
Black & minority ethnic people
Employment rates for UK-born have been rising as well as migrants
Looking at employment rate gaps and workless migrants
Job quality
Self-employment rising over time
Involuntary temporary and part-time working
Growth in occupations
Occupations – 10-year summary
Training intensity - by age
Earnings growth: stayers and changers
PROSPECTS
Summary of OBR and Consensus forecast • Slow economic growth • Stable and low unemployment rate • Declining and slow employment growth 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Outturn OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus GDP growth (%) 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 Unemployment Rate (Q4,%) 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 Employment Growth (%) 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.3
Uncertainty at very high levels UK Uncertainty 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Risks to the UK economic outlook • Brexit uncertainty, especially No Deal • Trade Wars / Protectionism • Weakening Global Conditions • Constraints on Policy Responses • Time – late stage of the Cycle
POLICY
Proactive Policy Package - Employment • Recently employed – activation, job search assistance. • For those more distant from work: – Re-legitimised Work Trials – FJF / subsidised labour hiring – Training, especially with practical on the job element
Proactive Policy Package – Automatic Stabilisers • Universal credit payments not delayed • Policies triggered by a measure of (local) economic conditions: – Direct payments to individuals – Additional local government funding – Public infrastructure fund for small projects
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