Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017 Northern - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017 Northern Boundary Technical Committee 9-10 January 2018

Run Reconstruction Model  Data Input and Parameters  Catch Data by gear for 28 fisheries  Alaska catch by opening  BC Catch by day

Run Reconstruction Model  Data Input and Parameters  Escapement data for 5 stocks  Alaska (McDonald Lake and others)  annual totals & estimated timing  Nass and Skeena  Daily escapement  Stikine  Alaskan stock comp. data (scale 82- 09; DNA 10-present)  Canadian DNA data for Areas 3-5 (since 2002)

Run Reconstruction Model Recent changes:  Since 2013 removed other “stock” catch from BC and Alaskan fisheries before modelling  Updated model to include release mortality (15%) in BC seine fisheries in 2016

Summary of Run Reconstruction data inputs Other data inputs: BC Catch Database • Stock composition based on DNA results from DFO in Areas 3 and 4 NB Reconstruction Database • Fraser Catch table • Other Catch stock composition table (SESPA data) Alaska Catch Database • Other DNA stock composition calculation • US other escapement table * Model was also used for Pink reconstructions from 1981 to 1995

Fraser catch

ALASKAN 33 23 FI SHERI ES 32 24 28 31 30 25 20 27 26 22 29 21 14 FI SHERI ES

CANADI AN FI SHERI ES • 14 FI SHERI ES • 9 ACTI VELY FI SHED I N RECENT YEARS

Analytical Procedures  Reconstruct runs by adding daily catch to daily escapement  work backwards through the fisheries  Terminal – inside – outside  Stock composition (SC) alternatives:  Equal Vulnerability – SC for all fisheries determined by stock abundance in each fishery  Alaska Scale/DNA Data – SC for Alaska fisheries obtained from AK analysis of scale/DNA data  Canadian DNA Data – SC for Canadian fisheries obtained from BC analyses of DNA data (started in 2002)

Eight Sets of Migration Routes Routing A – 20 years  Routing B – 3 years  Routing C – 3 years  Routing D – 1 year  Routing E – 3 years  Routing F – 1 year  Routing G – 3 years  Routing H – 1 year  35 years 

Marine tagging studies – 1982 & 1983 (routes & residence times in fisheries)

MI GRATI ON ROUTI NG A

Routes - % modeled stocks in modelled fisheries

Routes - % modeled stocks in modelled fisheries

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - SKEENA

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - NASS

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - MCDONALD

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS – US OTHER

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - STI KI NE

Comparison of Catch Results - Routing B (2016) – Tree Point 4000 Alaska DNA Data 3500 Equal Vulnerability 3000 Nass 2500 Skeena Alaska Stocks 2000 1500 1000 500 0 26 29 32 35 38 26 29 32 35 38 26 29 32 35 38

Comparison of Catch Results - Routing B (2016) – Noyes 90000 Alaska DNA Data 80000 70000 Equal Vulnerability 60000 Skeena 50000 40000 30000 --Alaska Stocks -- ------- Nass ------- 20000 10000 0 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Area 3E fishery – 100% Nass) Run at Fishwheels 120000 Reconstructed Run 100000 Run Entering Area 3E 80000 60000 120000 40000 100000 20000 80000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 60000 Area 3E Catch 40000 120000 20000 100000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Area 3D fishery – 100% Nass) Run leaving Area 3D 120000 Reconstructed Run 100000 Run Entering Area 3D 80000 60000 120000 40000 100000 20000 80000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 60000 Area 3D Catch 40000 120000 20000 100000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Area 3C fishery – Mixed Stock) Nass Abundance in Area 3C 120000 % Nass of Area 3C 100000 Sockeye Catch 80000 60000 100% 40000 20000 80% 0 60% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Skeena Abundance in Area 3C 40% 120000 20% 100000 0% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 80000 60000 Equal Vulnerability Model 40000 - stock comp. determined 20000 by abundance in fishery 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Area 3C fishery – Calculate Nass Catch) % Nass in Area 3C 100% Area 3C Catch 80% of Nass Sockeye 60% 40% 120000 100000 20% 80000 0% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 60000 Area 3C Catch 40000 120000 20000 100000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Through Area 3C) Nass Run Leaving Area 3C 150000 Reconstructed Run Run Entering Area 3C 100000 150000 50000 100000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Area 3C Catch of Nass Sockeye 50000 150000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 100000 50000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Summary) Run at Fishwheels 150000 100000 = Escapement 50000 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Run Entering Area 3C 150000 = Area 3C Nass Catch+ 100000 Area 3D Catch+ Area 3E Catch+ 50000 Escapement 0 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Skeena Abundance Estimates for 2010 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options route G was used in 2010 1025 Routing 1000 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 975 A B C 950 D E 925 F G 900 H 875 No DNA Data With DNA Data

Nass Abundance Estimates for 2010 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options (Route G was used for 2010) 525 Routing 500 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 475 A B C 450 D E 425 F G 400 H 375 No DNA Data With DNA Data

McDonald Abundance Estimates for 2010 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options route G was used in 2010 200 Routing 175 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 150 A 125 B C 100 D 75 E F 50 G H 25 0 No DNA Data With DNA Data

Skeena Abundance Estimates for 2011 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options (Route B was used in 2011) 2050 2025 Routing 2000 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 1975 1950 A B 1925 C 1900 D 1875 E 1850 F 1825 G 1800 H 1775 1750 No DNA Data With DNA Data

Nass Abundance Estimates for 2011 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options (Route B was used for 2011) 800 Routing 700 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 600 A 500 B C 400 D 300 E F 200 G H 100 0 No DNA Data With DNA Data

McDonald Abundance Estimates for 2011 - effect of DNA data and alternative routing options route B was used in 2011 275 250 Routing 225 Total Abundance (X1000) Options 200 A 175 B 150 C 125 D 100 E F 75 G 50 H 25 0 No DNA Data With DNA Data

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ON SUMMARY - 2016

GROSS TERMI NAL RUN DATA Considerations for final modelling: • Skeena 2016 estimate • McDonald 2016 estimate

Skeena River The Skeena River drains 54,432 km2, making it the second largest watershed in British Columbia. I t originates in the Skeena Mountains and flows south and southwest for 400 km where it empties into Chatham Sound on the northern BC coast near Prince Rupert

SKEENA RETURN DATA, 1985-2017

SKEENA TRENDS - 2017

Observations of late run timing Observations of decreasing size by age & species

Nass River Area – 20,500 km 2  Length - 400 km   Average Total Run (2000-2014):  Pink 800,000  Sockeye 700,000  Coho 400,000  Chum 42,000  Chinook 31,500 Major projects: • Fishwheel • Meziadin Fishway • Kwinageese Weir • Damdochax surveys • Catch programs

Nisga’a Fisheries Program 1992-2017 Celebrating 26 years of success! Dedication Hands on Stock Assessment Team Work Leadership (WSN)

NI SGA’A FI SHWHEEL PROGRAM 6 Fishwheels operating in 2017 ( 2 at GW and 4 at GH) GREASE HARBOUR FI SHWHEELS (FW 3, 4, 5, 6) ADDI TI ONAL TAGGI NG, SAMPLI NG, TAG RECOVERY FOR I N-SEASON POPULATI ON ESTI MATES & SOME SELECTI VE HARVESTI NG GI TWI NKSI HLKW FI SHWHEELS (FW 1 and 2) TAGGI NG, POPULATI ON I NDEX, & AGE/ DNA ASSESSMENTS ONLY

FW 1 – HIGH FW 1 – MEDIUM WATER LEVEL WATER LEVEL FW 1 – LOW WATER FW 2 – MEDIUM LEVEL WATER LEVEL

Fishwheels – Capture, Tagging & Bio- sampling (size, sex, and age)

Nass Salmon, Steelhead and Trout catches in 2017 1 June – 9 September 2017– Below average catches of Chinook and chum; average catches of sockeye and steelhead, and above average catches of Coho and Pacific Lamprey.

VERY GOOD I N-SEASON NASS ASSESSMENT DATA TO MANAGE FI SHERI ES • independent mark rates used in- season (upper fishwheels) • final post- season estimates use Meziadin fishway mark- recapture data

NASS RETURN DATA, 1985-2017

TERMI NAL SOCKEYE RUN 2017 296,939 NASS