Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Pink and Sockeye Salmon - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Pink and Sockeye Salmon in 2015 S. Grant & B. MacDonald Fisheries and Oceans Pêches et Océans FRAFS March 10 2015 Canada Canada 1

Fraser Pink Forecast 2

Fry Abundance 600 M Average 450M Brood Year 3

Adult Returns (Escapement + Catch) Average: 13.4 M System-specific System-Wide Assessments (various methods) MR Test- Hydro- Fishery acoustic 4

Jacknife Analysis (2015 Update) MRE MAE MPE RMSE Average Value Rank Value Rank Value Rank Value Rank Rank Power -0.946 5 4.323 3 -0.003 1 5.773 2 3 Power (SSS) -0.794 4 4.023 1 0.1261 3 5.498 1 1 TSA -1.708 7 6.008 5 0.2021 6 6.734 4 5 R1C -0.128 1 6.056 6 0.2235 7 7.374 5 6 R2C -1.199 6 6.584 7 0.1461 4 7.913 7 7 MRS -0.606 3 4.206 2 0.1091 2 5.865 3 3 RS1 2.714 8 9.079 8 0.2939 8 13.545 8 8 RS2 0.429 2 5.527 4 0.1682 5 7.377 6 5 Sea-Surface Salinity Avg from July-September Amphitrite Point Race Rocks 5

Fraser Pink Forecast Probability Levels 25% 50% 75% Power (fry)-SSS 10,385,000 14,455,000 20,450,000 Power (fry) 11,835,000 16,165,000 22,580,000 Average: 13.4 M 6

Fraser Pink Conclusions • Forecasts are extremely uncertain given changes in escapement and catch estimation methods over time and Pink fry abundance is an index of abundance only; • Returns are expected to be average based on the 2015 forecast 7

Fraser Sockeye Forecast 8

Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Summer Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous Summer Chilko Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft Harrison North Thompson River Miscellaneous North Thompson Tributaries Miscellaneous Widgeon miscellaneous Late Cultus Late Shuswap (Adams River) Portage Weaver Birkenhead Non-Shuswap miscellaneous 9

Fraser Sockeye Aggregate: Returns 28 M Prelim: 20M Dark blue bars: 2015 cycle Returns (Millions) Average: 7.7 M 1.5 M Return Year 10

Fraser Sockeye Aggregate: Productivity Log e Returns/Spawner Returns (2010) average Preliminary Estimates (2014) Returns (2009) Return Year 11

Total Survival: Harrison Preliminary Estimate Ocean Entry (2011) Standardized Survival Indices Returns (2014) (mostly 4’s) (Ricker Residuals) Ocean Entry (2007) Returns (2009: 3 yr olds; 2010: 4 yrs) Brood Year (2005) Ocean Entry (2006) Return (2008: 3 yr olds; 2009: 4 yrs) 12

Total Survival: Late Run Total Survival Preliminary Estimate Late e Shus uswap (Ada dams Run) Ocean Entry Standardized Survival Indices (2012) Return (2014) (Ricker Residuals) Ocean Entry (2008) Return (2010) Brood Year (2005) Ocean Entry (2007) Return (2009) 13

Brood Year Escapement 14

Age of Maturity Average age: 4 2 Returns 2015 Freshwater: 2 Winters Marine: 2 Winters Spawn (eggs): Juveniles 2011 2013-2015 Fry emergence: 2012 Smolts 2013 15

# Adult Spawners Four Year Old Brood Year Run timing group Run timing group 2010 Brood Year 2011 Brood Year (Age-5) (Age-4) Four ur Y Year O r Old B Brood Ye Year Stocks Stocks Early Stuart Early Stuart 34,200 effective female spawners 200 Early Summer Early Summer Bowron Bowron 4,400 2,000 Fennell Fennell 5,500 4,500 Gates Gates 5,900 26,400 Nadina Nadina 11,900 1,200 Pitt Pitt 8,800 30,400 Scotch Scotch 273,900 12,500 Seymour Seymour 284,500 8,000 Summer Summer Chilko j Chilko j Chilko: 40% 54.9 M 44.2 M Late Stuart Late Stuart 43,500 800 Quesnel Quesnel 74% 133,000 17,000 Stellako Stellako 110,300 26,000 smolts Raft Raft 2,400 4,400 Harrison: 34% Harrison Harrison 399,700 387,100 Late Late Cultus 318,400 Cultus 119,800 Late Shuswap Late Shuswap 3.1 M 46000 Portage Portage 26,700 300 Weaver Weaver 25,300 24,500 Birkenhead 8% Birkenhead 67,800 Birkenhead 92,400 16

Seymour # Adult Spawners Four Year Old Five Year Old (Harrison-Three) Run timing group 2011 Brood Year Run timing group 2010 Brood Year (Age-4) (Age-4) Stocks Stocks Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Stuart 200 34,200 Early Summer Early Summer Bowron Bowron Bowron Bowron 2,000 4,400 Fennell Fennell 4,500 5,500 Gates Gates 26,400 5,900 Nadina Nadina Nadina Nadina 1,200 11,900 Pitt Pitt 30,400 8,800 Scotch Scotch Scotch 12,500 273,900 Seymour Seymour Seymour Seymour 8,000 284,500 Summer Summer 127,367 Chilko j Chilko j 44.2 M 54.9 M Late Stuart Late Stuart Late Stuart Late Stuart 800 43,500 Quesnel Quesnel Quesnel 17,000 133,000 Stellako Stellako Stellako Stellako 26,000 110,300 Raft Raft 4,400 2,400 Harrison Harrison 387,100 32,900 Late Late Cultus Cultus Cultus Cultus 119,800 318,400 Late Shuswap Late Shuswap Late Shuswap 46000 3.1 M Late Shuswap Portage Portage Portage 300 26,700 Weaver Weaver 24,500 25,300 Birkenhead Birkenhead 92,400 67,800 17

Fraser Sockeye Forecasts Pre-season in-season Forecast distributions are used forecasts distributions as Bayesian priors for in-season are used to frame out the run size estimation models. range of fishing Diminishing influence as more opportunities over stock-specific in-season data different stock survival become available 18 conditions

2015 Forecast Methods Run timing group Forecast Model b Stocks Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) Early Summer (total excluding miscellaneous) Bowron MRS Fennell power *Gates Larkin Nadina MRJ Pitt Larkin *Scotch Ricker *Seymour Ricker Summer (total excluding miscellaneous) Chilko g power (juv) (Pi) Late Stuart power Quesnel Ricker-cyc Stellako Larkin Raft h Ricker (PDO) ***Harrison h & j Adjusted RS1 Late (total exlcuding miscellaneous) Cultus g MRJ *Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc *Portage Larkin Weaver MRS xx Birkenhead 4-Ricker (Ei); 5-sibling 19

Forecast Models 0 5 10 15 20 Recruits (1000’s) Ricker Model 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Escapement 20

Forecasts are probability distributions Stock 25% 50% 75% Hypothetical 48,000 75,000 98,000 100 75% Probability 80 Cumulative 50% Probability 60 Probability Uncertainty (Percent) 40 25% Probability of Smaller Run Sizes 20 0.0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Total Return Size 21

2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 50% 25% 75% 10% 90% 2.4 M 3.9 M 7 M 12.9 M 24 M Early Stuart 8 K – 108 K (<1% of total forecast) Early Summer Scotch: 2% Seymour: 2% 236 K – 3.0 M (12% of total forecast) Summer Chilko: 35% Harrison: 20% Stellako: 6% Quesnel: 5% 1.7 M – 16.5 M (69% of total forecast) Late 489 K – 4.5 M 22 Late Shuswap: 7% Birkenhd: 7% Weaver: 5% (18% of total forecast)

Harrison Sockeye Harris ison (uncer ertain in forec ecast st) Return Abundances 2005-2014 average: 600,000 1952-2004 average: 30,000 23

Sibling Models Chilko Log e 4 year old recruits Log e 5 year old recruits Log e 3 year old recruits Sibling ng f four ur year o old f fore recast (used t thre ree y year o olds (jacks) from m 2014 14 r retu turns a as pred edicto tor vari riable) 50% p-level five year old forecast Power(juv)-Pi 2.4 M Sibling 1.2 M 24

Brood Year Escapements Four Year Olds Five Year Olds Percent 5-yr 5 yr old olds returns returns Run timing group 2010 Brood Year (Age-5) Stocks Early Stuart 95% (29,000) Early Stuart 34,200 Early Summer Bowron 35% (8,000) Bowron 4,400 Fennell 5,500 Gates Nadina 78% (24,000) 5,900 Nadina 11,900 Pitt 63% (50,000) Pitt 8,800 Scotch 273,900 Seymour Scotch 18% (33,000) 284,500 Seymour 31% (44,000) Summer Chilko j 54.9 M Chilko 11% (265,000) Late Stuart 43,500 Late Stuart 52% (28,000) Quesnel 133,000 Quesnel 56% (207 ,000) Stellako 110,300 Raft 2,400 Stellako 52% (204,000) Harrison 399,700 Late Cultus 318,400 Late Shuswap 3.1 M Late Shuswap 32% (167 ,000) Portage 26,700 Weaver 25,300 Portage 37% (3,000) Birkenhead 67,800 25

Late Stuart: productivity Brood Year 4 yr Rec Productivity EFS Forecasts (4 yr R/EFS) ACTUAL 778 17,000 22 Green > 18 Half 389 10,000 26 Quarter 195 7,000 36 Double 1,556 28,000 18 Amber: >4 & <= 18 6x 5,000 61,000 12 13x 10,000 99,000 10 GeoAvg: 12K Avg: 9K Frequency (Percent) 26