Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 S. Grant & B. MacDonald Fisheries and Oceans Pêches et Océans FRAFS FORUM meeting Canada Canada March 8 2016 1

Late –June Early Stuart to Early-July Early Stuart Early Summer Late-July to Bowron Early-Aug Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous Summer Early-to- Chilko Mid-Aug. Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft Harrison North Thompson River Miscellaneous North Thompson Tributaries Miscellaneous Widgeon miscellaneous Late Mid-Aug. Cultus Late Shuswap (Adams River) Portage Weaver Birkenhead Fraser Timing Non-Shuswap miscellaneous 2

Factors influencing total returns Age of Maturity # Adult Spawners Survival Brood Year Escapement 3

Age of Maturity Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds Marine Freshwater 2 Winters 2 Winters May-June 2014 June-October 2014 Brood Year First Winter 2015 July-Oct 2012 Second Winter 2016 April-May 2013 July-Oct 2016 April-May 2014 Return: 4 yrs 4

Brood Year Escapement: Index of the Number of Eggs 5

# Adult Spawners Four Year Old Brood Year: 2012 Run timing group 2012 Brood Year (Age-4) Stocks 2% Early Stuart 6,800 Early Summer Bowron 30 effective female spawners Fennell 700 Gates 6,900 40% Nadina 16,800 Pitt: 11% Pitt 41,400 Scotch 700 Seymour 300 Chilliwack: 22% Misc. (Chilliwack) 78,800 Summer Chilko: 25% Chilko j 11.4 M Quesnel 100 Late Stuart: 9% 57% Late Stuart 31,800 Stellako: 14% smolts Stellako 50,600 Harrison 32,900 Harrison: 9% Raft 1,700 Late Cultus 63,600 Late Shuswap 10 1% Portage 10 Weaver 400 6 Birkenhead 2,500

# Adult Spawners Five Year Old Brood Year: 2011 2011 Brood Year Run timing group (Age-5) Stocks 0% Early Stuart 200 Early Summer Bowron 2,000 Fennell 4,500 effective female spawners Gates 26,400 Nadina 1,200 11% Pitt 30,400 Scotch 12,500 Seymour 8,000 Misc. (Chilliwack) 2,500 Summer Chilko: 53% Chilko j 43.2 M Quesnel 17,000 Late Stuart 800 69% Stellako 26,000 smolts Harrison 78,000 Harrison: 9% Raft 4,400 (three year olds) Late Cultus 119,800 Late Shuswap 46,000 Portage 300 Birkenhead: 11% 20% Weaver 24,500 Birkenhead 92,400 7

Run timing group 2011 Brood Year 2012 Brood Year (Age-5) (Age-4) Stocks 200 Early Stuart 6,800 Early Summer 2,000 Bowron 30 4,500 Fennell 700 26,400 Gates 6,900 1,200 Nadina 16,800 30,400 Pitt 41,400 Pitt 12,500 Scotch 700 8,000 Seymour 300 Chilliwack 2,500 Misc. (Chilliwack) 78,800 Summer Chilko j 43.2 M 11.4 M Chilko 17,000 Quesnel 100 Late Stuart Late Stuart 800 31,800 Stellako Stellako 26,000 50,600 Harrison 32,900 78,000 Harrison Raft 4,400 1,700 Late Cultus 119,800 63,600 Late Shuswap 10 46,000 Portage 10 300 Weaver 400 24,500 Birkenhead 2,500 92,400 8

Run timing group 2011 Brood Year 2012 Brood Year Five Year Olds (Age-5) (Age-4) Stocks 200 Early Stuart 6,800 Early Summer Bowron 2,000 Bowron 30 4,500 Fennell 700 26,400 Gates 6,900 1,200 Nadina 16,800 Pitt 30,400 Pitt 41,400 12,500 Scotch 700 Scotch 8,000 Seymour 300 2,500 Misc. (Chilliwack) Seymour 78,800 Summer Chilko j 43.2 M 11.4 M 100 17,000 Quesnel Quesnel 17,000 Quesnel 100 Late Stuart 800 31,800 Stellako 26,000 50,600 Harrison 32,900 78,000 Raft 4,400 1,700 Late Cultus 119,800 63,600 Late Shuswap Late Shuswap 10 46,000 Portage 10 300 Weaver 400 Weaver 24,500 Birkenhead 2,500 92,400 Birkenhead 9

(CAVEAT: NOT THE FORECAST JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE CALCULATION) 2016 Returns X 0.85 = 850 100 EFS = 1,000 Recruits X 10 R/EFS (2012) age-4 17 ,000 EFS X 0.15 =22,500 = 170,000 Recruits X 10 R/EFS (2011) age-5 = 26,000 TOTAL = 97% age-5 10

Survival: Part 1 11

2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts Return-Ricker Model Forecast Standardized Ricker Residuals Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Run timing group Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart 13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000 Early Summer 120,000 217,000 447,000 1,003,000 2,703,000 Bowron 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 Fennell 6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000 Gates 24,000 40,000 76,000 138,000 231,000 Nadina 24,000 45,000 90,000 179,000 331,000 Pitt 42,000 60,000 90,000 147,000 212,000 Scotch 300 2,000 12,000 89,000 698,000 Seymour 0 100 400 1,000 3,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000 Misc (Taseko) e 100 400 1,000 1,000 2,000 Misc (Chilliwack) 17,000 46,000 138,000 378,000 1,101,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f 4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000 Summer 647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000 Chilko g 459,000 658,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart 42,000 86,000 192,000 427,000 880,000 Stellako 86,000 144,000 256,000 454,000 761,000 Misc (Harrison) h & i 40,000 85,000 194,000 447,000 965,000 Raft h 11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j 600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j 1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000 Misc (Widgeon) k 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 Late 41,000 65,000 111,000 205,000 368,000 Cultus g 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 **Late Shuswap 0 100 4,000 25,000 76,000 Portage 0 200 400 1,000 2,000 Weaver 2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000 xx Birkenhead 30,000 45,000 68,000 105,000 158,000 Misc non-Shuswap k 8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000 (10% p-level) (25% p-level) (75% p-level) (90% p-level) 12

Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Run timing group Forecast Model b Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58,000 108,000 Early Summer 236,000 424,000 837,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79,000 141,000 280,000 502,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65,000 126,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79,000 120,000 190,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85,000 185,000 430,000 845,000 Early Shuswap Seymour Ricker 41,000 68,000 140,000 274,000 529,000 Misc (EShu) c 33,000 74,000 164,000 258,000 459,000 RS (Scotch/Seymour) Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 35% Chilko Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108,000 197,000 367,000 684,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54,000 118,000 245,000 Stellako Larkin 186,000 261,000 390,000 552,000 823,000 21% Harrison Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255,000 573,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) f & g 1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 R/S (Raft/Fennell) Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419,000 703,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 15% Shuswap Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168,000 293,000 517,000 924,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 (Early + Late) Weaver MRS 110,000 189,000 346,000 635,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead 120,000 183,000 299,000 513,000 879,000 Ricker (Ei)+Sibling Misc Lillooet-Harrison i R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60,000 107,000 189,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000

WE HAVE A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 2016 FORECAST 14

HIGHER PROPORTION VERY POOR OF FIVE YEAR OLDS SURVIVAL IN 2016 OF FOUR YEAR FOR SOME STOCKS OLDS IN 2015 FOR MANY STOCKS 15

Sibling Models Five Four Three 16

Quesnel Weaver Birkenhead 2012: 100 400 2,500 Cyc Avg: (4,500) (18,300) (32,300) 2011: 17 ,000 92,400 24,500 Very Poor Very Poor 2011 EXTREMELY Poor 4 yr old Survival Most returning as five year olds in 2016 AND 17 Since four year old survival in 2015 was poor expect poor five year old survival in 2016

Quesnel Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 63,000 Total: 63,000 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 14,000 Total: 15,000 Weaver 2016 MRS Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 67 ,000 Total: 72,000 2016 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 3,000 Total: 8,000 Birkenhead 2016 Ricker-Ei Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 146,000 Total: 162,000 2016 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 52,000 Total: 68,000 18

Harrison Sockeye 19

Harrison Escapement average: 150,000 EFS 0.45 Escapement (EFS) 0.4 0.35 0.3 average: 6,000 EFS 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 33K 78K Year 2012 2013 57% age-4 25% age-3