3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement Grant, Whitehouse, Tadey, Benner, Patterson, Hills, Selbie, Pon, Neville, Trudel, Perry, Lapointe, Huang
Objective To improve our understanding of factors that influence Fraser Sockeye survival Synthesize and integrate research from various experts: • Returns and Population Dynamics • Upstream migration and fish health • Spawner assessments (health, condition, numbers) • Juveniles in lake (health, condition, numbers) • Limnology • Mission smolts • Strait of Georgia Juveniles • High Seas Juveniles and Ocean Conditions 2
Name Life-History Stage Sue Grant Forecasts and Population Dynamics Bronwyn MacDonald Forecasts Keri Benner Escapement and Smolts David Patterson Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Jayme Hills Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Dan Selbie Lake Fry and Limnology Lucas Pon Lake Fry and Limnology Joe Tadey Mission Smolts Timber Whitehouse Mission Smolts Chrys Neville Strait of Georgia Sockeye juveniles Marc Trudel High Seas Salmon and Ocean Conditions Ian Perry Ocean Conditions Mike Lapointe Returns Ann-Marie Huang Population Dynamics 3
Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Discharge Conditions: Early Stuart Discharge High What stocks were possibly affected? Early Stuart, Early Summer David Patterson and Jayme Hills 4
Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Temperature : Chilko Summer runs experienced above average temperatures David Patterson and Jayme Hills 5
Spawning Success At / Above Average Below Average • Lowest spawning success in 50 years at 71% (average 89%) • At / near record low success of spawn at several populations • Poor fish condition and high pre-spawn mortality in several areas (not all) of the watershed Keri Benner
CHILKO FRESHWATER SURVIVAL Log e (Recruits/Smolt) 2012 BY (age-4 2016 returns) Smolt sizes in 2012 (99 mm) above average (86 mm) Brood Year Keri Benner, Mike Lapointe, Steve Latham
Mission Smolt Outmigration Survey Timber Whitehouse and Joe Tadey, Project Leads DFO Stock Assessment 8
Mean CU fork-length 125.0 2012 2013 2014 100.0 75.0 50.0 100.7 97.4 96.3 94.8 88.3 85.8 77.9 76.3 71.9 25.0 0.0 Anderson-Seton (ES) Shuswap Complex (L) Chilko (S) & Chilko (ES) 10 Timber Whitehouse & Joe Tadey
Strait of Georgia Juvenile Salmon Surveys Neville & Beamish, DFO Science 11
Sockeye salmon CPUE June/July The CPUE (0.43) in 2014 is not only lower than other years for same cycle line (arrows) it is the lowest in the time series. • The average proportion of empty stomachs sampled in trawl surveys in 2014 was similar to average and would therefore suggest that conditions were not out of the normal range in the SOG • Unlike last year, the distribution of juveniles in the SOG and movement through the Discovery Islands is similar to other years. EXTREMELY Preliminary Regression: predicted 470,000 at the 50% p-level
0.007 M 0.08 M 0.06 M 0.09 M Sockeye - September 0.01 M 0.38 M 0.27 M 0.1 M 0.14 M 0.015 M 2016 Forecast: 1.4 M 1.6 M 0.17 M 0.17 M 1.4 M (19K age-3 in 2015) 48 K Age-4 0.230 M 0.067 M (0.500 M) Age-3 128 K
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Indicators of Survival
Chilko Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits 2 y = 0.3416x + 2.0604 R² = 0.3 1.5 Age 4 Recruits 1 0.5 0 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 2,500 Source: K.Benner 2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 970,000 2016 Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 1,000,000
Stellako Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits 1 0 Age 4 Recruits -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 y = 0.243x + 1.0489 -3 R² = 0.3 -4 -5 -6 Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 57 Source: K.Benner 2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 257 ,000 2016 Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 256,000
Data range: 1984-2010 Brood Years • No estimates yet for 2015 IFC Marine Survival • Although based on in-season observations the survival is expected to be VERY LOW (per. comm. , DFO, L. Ritchie and C. Parken) • Therefore Chilko MS in 2016 would be expected to range from 1 to 5% (this falls b/w 10-25% p-level of the Chilko Power-smolt-Pi forecast)
Ocean Conditions State of the Ocean DFO Tech Report 3102 Editor: Ian Perry 22
Vertical distribution of the “blob” at Station Papa, Gulf of Alaska Fig. courtesy Howard Freeland (DFO,ret.) Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016
The “Blob” moves to the coast of North America Reynold’s data January 2014 January 2015 Difference from normal temperatures Difference from normal temperatures Very intense warm water NE Pacific has cooled (blue), but (red: up to 3 °C above normal) in NE warm water (red) moved to BC coast Pacific, but cool (blue) along BC coast Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016
The “Blob” in summer, 2015 Reynold’s data July 2015 August 2015 Difference from normal temperatures Difference from normal temperatures The “Blob” is still evident at the surface in the NE Pacific, but less intense than previous months Perry, Session S2, PICES 2015 Annual Meeting, Qingdao, China, 21 October 2014
Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition • northern-type zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1 st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish) • but, southern-type 1 mm zooplankton in 2 nd half of 2014 and in 2015 when water was warm (small poor quality species) Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016
Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Run timing group Forecast Model b Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58,000 108,000 Early Summer 236,000 424,000 837,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79,000 141,000 280,000 502,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65,000 126,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79,000 120,000 190,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85,000 185,000 430,000 845,000 Early Shuswap Seymour Ricker 41,000 68,000 140,000 274,000 529,000 Misc (EShu) c 33,000 74,000 164,000 258,000 459,000 RS (Scotch/Seymour) Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 35% Chilko Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108,000 197,000 367,000 684,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54,000 118,000 245,000 Stellako Larkin 186,000 261,000 390,000 552,000 823,000 21% Harrison Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255,000 573,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) f & g 1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 R/S (Raft/Fennell) Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419,000 703,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 15% Shuswap Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168,000 293,000 517,000 924,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 (Early + Late) Weaver MRS 110,000 189,000 346,000 635,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead 120,000 183,000 299,000 513,000 879,000 Ricker (Ei)+Sibling Misc Lillooet-Harrison i R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60,000 107,000 189,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000
Summary (REALLY preliminary) Below Average Survival Signals (Possibly) • Poor migration conditions in 2012 for Early Stuart and Early Summers and high pre-spawn (legacy effects on juveniles unknown but possible?) • Extremely low CPUE in SOG for Fraser Sockeye 4sub2 • Low CPUE in SOG for Harrison 3sub1’s • IFC CO indicates poor Chilko MS Average Signals of Survival (Possibly) • Proportion of empty stomachs of juveniles in SOG average • Juvenile sizes above average for Chilko and other stocks • In stock proportions at Mission/SOG/Forecasts although Chilko consistently high, other stocks different between samples • Jack-to-4 yr forecasts same as forecast for Chilko and Stellako Uncertain Signals of Survival • ‘Warm Blob’ amplified in the 2013 OEY; strong throughout marine residence 28
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