North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update gen $ CAEP - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update gen $

CAEP Update Goals Reduce Reduce Lower Mitigate Quality Emissions Energy Costs Risk of Life

CAEP Update Goals Check CAEP Progress Update CAEP Modelling Confirm Emissions Reduction Target Create GHG Tracking Capacity

CAEP Update Workplan Updated Data Modelling of Business Modelling of Low- Action & Implementation Collection as Usual Scenario (BAU) Carbon Scenario (LCS) Planning Project Data Calibration Emissions Reduction Project Consultation Start in New Model Target Confirmation Completion Data Methods & LCS Presentation CAEP Update Assumptions Summary Report BAU Report Action & Modelling Refinement

Assumptions Change ges s 2016-2050 2050 45,000 41,533 + 9,950 jobs 40,000 + 9,025 people 39,562 35,000 31,584 30,000 Numbers 30,538 25,000 19,400 20,000 18,231 - 1,170 vehicles 13,449 15,000 12,582 + 867 homes 10,000 5,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Main Emissions Drivers Drive iver Main in Effects (Ene nergy y and d Emiss ission ons Foc ocus) us) Population Growth Increased: • Energy use in homes and transportation • Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use) • Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure) • Water use and waste/wastewater production Employment Growth Increased: • Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use) • Commuting and associated energy use • Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure) • Industrial energy use Housing Growth Required: • Electrical grid extension (greenfield) • Natural gas line extension • Potable water system extension • Wastewater system extension • Transportation infrastructure extension • Increased waste collection services • Increased personal vehicle kilometres travelled

Emission Sources Considered   out-of-boundary transportation

Emission Sources Considered Catalyst Crofton Paper Mill Agriculture Not included in inventory and modelling as Included in inventory and modelling (Scope 1 emissions dwarf most North Cowichan emissions). emissions. Most emissions due to livestock. As a facility that emits over 10,000 tonnes annually, the mill is required to report to the Agriculture is largely under Provincial Province. jurisdiction.

1 million Gigajoules (278 megawatt hours) = 20,631 28,571,429 24,211 9,813 passenger litres of gasoline homes’ electricity homes’ energy vehicles consumed use for one year use for one year

GJ (millions) Current Path Energy and Emissions 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 9.25 2018 2020 + 500,000 GJ in 2050 (+ 5%) 2022 2024 2026 2028 Total Energy 2030 2032 2034 gy Use 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 9.75 2050 tonnes CO2e (thousands) 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 2016 338.6 2018 2020 + 3,300 tonnes in 2050 (+ 1%) 2022 2024 2026 Total Emissions 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 341.9 2048 2050

GJ (millions) Current Path Energy and Emissions by Sector 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Ener 2030 ergy 2032 2034 y Use 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 tonnes CO2e (thousands) 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Emissions 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions) Current Path Energy and Emissions by Fuel Source 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Ener 2030 ergy 2032 2034 y Use 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 tonnes CO2e (thousands) 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Emissions 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Current Path Energy Use by End Use GJ (millions) 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Ener 2030 ergy 2032 y Use 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Emissions Reductions Target: -80% of 2016 levels Total Emissions 341.9 338.6 350 300 tonnes CO2e (thousands) We are We are going 250 here here 280,800 tCO2e reduction 200 to achieve target 150 100 61.1 We want to 50 go here 0 -80% of 2007 levels 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Strategy Sectors for Emissions Reductions Low-carbon transportation Compact, complete communities Local clean energy generation & Efficient buildings procurement Water, Wastewater, Carbon sequestration and Solid Waste

Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP BC Step Code for efficient new buildings Advances in heating/cooling technology (e.g. heat pumps) Advances in building retrofit techniques Decreased prices of renewable energy technologies Increased availability of energy storage technologies Increased variety of electric vehicle models Decreased price of electric vehicles Increased speed of charging equipment

Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP Increased ambition and detail of Provincial and Federal government climate change goals, objectives, policies, and plans Improved access to data sources (especially industrial) Increased modelling sophistication Launch and adoption of a globally accepted emissions inventory reporting protocol

Compact, Complete Communities Current Path Low-carbo bon Continue current development trajectories in Focus development in Chemainus (10%), Spatial distribu bution existing urban containment boundaries. Crofton (10%), and South End (80%). Dwelling g size Baseline dwelling sizes maintained. Average dwelling size decreases 20% by 2050. New buildings type mix ratios reflect baseline Only 10% of new buildings are single family Buildi ding type mix building mixes. homes in 2050 onward.

Efficient New Buildings Current Path Low-carbo bon Follow BC Step Code: 20 per cent more energy efficient by 2022. New buildings are net-zero energy by New residen dential buildi dings 40 per cent more energy efficient by 2027. 2030. 80 per cent more energy efficient by 2032 & net-zero energy ready. New commercial New buildings are net-zero energy by Follow BC Step Code. buildi dings gs 2030.

Efficient Existing Buildings Current Path Low-carbo bon Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100% Retrofit homes es No retrofits. of existing dwellings by 2040. Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100% Retrofits of commer ercial No retrofits. of commercial buildings by 2040. Indu dustry y (proces ess No change to current Increase efficiency by 50% by 2050. motors/ef /efficien ency) y) efficiencies. gs retrofits Current efficiencies held 100% of existing municipal buildings are retrofit to net-zero Municipa pal buildi dings constant. emissions by 2030. Current instances Heat Pumps ps 100% of heating/cooling is electric by 2050. extrapolated. Current instances 90% of homes have 50% of their electricity needs met by solar by Solar PV extrapolated. 2050.

Water, Wastewater, and Solid Waste Current Path Low-carbo bon Increa ease e pumpi ping g efficien ency Current intensity held Decrease energy used in pumping by 2%/year to 2050. constant. Increa ease e water er efficien ency Current intensity held Decrease water volume use by 2%/year to 2050. constant. Waste Diver ersion Baseline generation and 90% of residential and ICI waste diverted by 2050. diversion rates extrapolated. 95% of organic waste diverted by 2030.

Low-carbon Transportation Current Path Low-carbo bon Expa pand d transit Follows BC Transit planning. Transit mode share increases to 25% by 2050. Elect ectrify y transit Follows BC Transit planning. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030. Electrify y municipa pal fleets None. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030. Increa ease/i e/impr prove ve cycling g & Mode shares held current. 35% of trips are walking and cycling by 2050. walki king g infr frastructure 3% new personal EVs in personal use 100% of all new car sales are electric models by Elect ectrify y personal vehicles es vehicle stock by 2040. 2030. 100% of all new commercial vehicle sales are Elect ectrify y commer ercial vehicles Current mix held constant. electric models by 2030.

Local Clean Energy Generation Current Path Low-carbo bon Solar PV - ground d mount No instances. 1MW capacity/year. District energy gy Current instances of DE held constant. New DE system added in University Village. 18.5 MW of storage by 2050 to accommodate Energy y storage None. 10% of PV generation. Wind d Energy gy None. None. 100% of remaining natural gas demand is replaced Renewa wabl ble natural gas None. with RNG/hydrogen by 2050.

tonnes CO2e (thousands) Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions 350 345 tonnes CO2e (thousands) 340 335 330 325 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050