The Climate Action and Energy Plan Update: Strategy and Policy Dave Preikshot, PhD, RPBio Senior Environmental Specialist North Cowichan
Why are we here today? This is part of an iterative process that will help ensure we achieve emissions reduction and • make our community more resilient to climate change Goal for today’s engagement meeting: • Presentations from DNC Staff and SSG ▫ Answer questions about the new CAEP model and take on board suggestions for changes to modelling assumptions and ▫ suggestions for future modelling work. Discuss emissions reduction policies and actions that could be implemented in North Cowichan which can include policies and ▫ actions that may not be directly related to strategies identified in the CAEP update. Steps for the future • Continue engagement with whole community on Place Speak ▫ Report back to council with lessons learned from engagement group and Place Speak discussions ▫ Finalise CAEP modelling update ▫ Reconvene annually with engagement group to track emission progress and assess policy performance ▫
CAEP Update and the Climate Action Plan (CAP) The CAEP Update is a program funded by The CAP is a strategic approach adopted • • the Federation of Canadian Municipalities by North Cowichan Council to guide in order to: policy to combat climate change and adapt to new climate norms. Update the assumptions used in the current GHG model in ▫ consideration of technological changes (e.g. renewable energy, Emissions target is 80% below baseline by 2050 ▫ electric vehicles etc.) CAP has six strategy areas: • Develop a new GHG emissions model. ▫ Remodel existing scenarios and resultant implementation plan ▫ transportation/electric vehicles ▫ actions to assess efficacy of actions, assess any new potential corporate leadership ▫ actions, and revise the implementation as required. natural assets and carbon sequestration ▫ Using the new model assess the District’s progress towards its’ ▫ building efficiency current GHG reduction target. Re- assess the District’s current ▫ target and if necessary recommend an alternate target(s). Lowering waste ▫ Develop a more functional and user-friendly tool for ongoing ▫ climate adaptation ▫ modelling of GHG reduction strategies and monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions.
4 Relation of CAEP to Existing North Cowichan Climate Action Plan
5 What should we do? Global options: Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here
6 Environmentalist View Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here
7 Climate Skeptic View Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here
8 North Cowichan Situation Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here
9 North Cowichan has a very low population density among BC communities of similar size Population Density 6000 The graph shows • population density of BC municipalities with people / km 2 4000 populations between 18- 60 thousand (+ Vancouver and Victoria) DNC has the 2 nd lowest • 2000 density of similarly sized municipalities This level of density will • 0 still apply to 90% of North Vancouver Victoria North Vancouver White Rock Langley Port Coquitlam Oak Bay Port Moody Port Alberni Langford Penticton Courtenay Fort St. John Cranbrook West Vancouver Vernon West Kelowna Campbell River Pitt Meadows Squamish Mission North Cowichan Salmon Arm Cowichan’s housing stock in 2050.
10 North Cowichan has a very different age distribution compared to the rest of BC and nearby communities ( male and female age category % of total population). Most common age category in BC: 50-59, DNC 65-69, Cowichan Tribes IR#1: 5-9, City of Duncan 50-59. DNC has fewer young adults age 20-35 overall. British Columbia District of North Cowichan Cowichan Tribes City of Duncan 100+ 90-99 80-89 70-79 age category 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 10-19 0-9 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 proportion of total population in each age category ( MALE (-) or FEMALE )
11 Difference in GHG Emissions: Victoria vs North Cowichan Victoria 150000 new CAEP annual emissions (t CO2eq) 100000 50000 0 industry transportation farms commercial houses fugitive waste
12 Several Assumptions of the Original CAEP Have Changed, e.g., Emissions and Sinks Agricultural and industrial emissions are much greater than original estimates • Carbon sequestration in Municipal Forest may be much larger than previously thought •
13 Most (>80%) of our farms are SMALLER than 70 Most of the LAND (~60%) is on farms LARGER acres…. BUT than 70 acres. # of farms by size total area farmed by farm size (ac) 200 8,000 150 6,000 2011 total area farmed (ac) count of farms 2016 2011 100 4,000 2016 50 2,000 0 0 <10 10-69 70-129 130-179 180-239 240-399 400-559 560-759 <10 10-69 70-129 130-179 180-239 240-399 400-559 560-759 farm size category farm size category
14 Several Assumptions of the Original CAEP Have Changed, e.g., Electric Vehicles Transport Canada policy on Zero Emission Vehicles: • We are setting the following ambitious Canada-wide targets, to be achieved at a national • level and encompassing battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: By 2025, 10% of new light-duty vehicles sold in Canada will be zero-emission ▫ By 2030, 30% will be zero-emission ▫ By 2040, 100% will be zero-emission ▫
15 GHG Emissions: North Cowichan OLD CAEP vs NEW CAEP old CAEP 150000 new CAEP annual emissions (t CO2eq) 100000 50000 0 industry transportation farms commercial houses fugitive waste
16 Thinking about abatement curves What policies can we leverage • What policies have potential economic • benefits for MNC What policies will significantly reduce GHG • emissions How do costs in different sectors influence • policy options How is the North Cowichan curve different • from others, e.g., US curve shown here
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