NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD PRESENTATION ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS MAY 5, 2020 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY BOUNDARY SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS QUESTIONS NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
M ET H O D O LO G Y COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD • Uses historical live birth data and historical student enrollment to “age” (or progress) a known population (cohort) throughout the school grades • Survival ratios analyzed • Projection ratios developed 2 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
EN R O LLM EN T P R O J EC T I O N S B Y ES B O U N D A RY • Enrollment projections are based on students LIVING within a boundary • Does NOT reflect actual school enrollment • “Live” enrollment projections: Useful for planning based on projected growth/decline in areas of the District Students Attending Pioneer ES Live within Pioneer ES Boundary Do not live within Pioneer ES Boundary 3 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
LI V E / AT T EN D A N A LY S I S • 854 students transfer into NHUSD schools from neighboring districts • 145 students transfer out of NHUSD to attend neighboring districts Based on IDA data given to CS by NHUSD Student Services Department The number of students transferring out of NHUSD has decreased over the last 10 years 4 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
H I S T O R I C A L EN R O LLM EN T Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 K 960 898 927 892 1,007 980 954 901 885 878 1 974 981 931 930 811 842 815 794 772 715 2 1,010 957 968 931 905 781 823 805 790 762 3 894 1,002 956 959 932 902 769 807 792 779 4 900 914 977 941 948 918 885 765 781 777 5 974 915 919 951 924 935 882 882 745 775 6 920 987 889 884 929 878 909 841 854 748 7 946 953 1,011 921 884 930 888 916 865 860 8 1,001 972 954 1,005 925 901 913 885 899 855 9 1,023 1,025 1,009 978 1,048 946 988 942 939 956 10 1,065 1,008 1,047 1,009 986 1,058 947 972 953 940 11 1,130 1,085 1,040 1,029 1,030 968 1,043 944 963 945 12 1,157 1,204 1,244 1,170 1,130 1,132 1,076 1,159 1,043 1,057 13 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 K - 12 Total 12,954 12,901 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Grand Total 12,954 12,950 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Source: New Haven Unified School District Student Data Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 K - 5 5,712 5,667 5,678 5,604 5,527 5,358 5,128 4,954 4,765 4,686 6 - 8 2,867 2,912 2,854 2,810 2,738 2,709 2,710 2,642 2,618 2,463 9 - 12 4,375 4,322 4,340 4,186 4,194 4,104 4,054 4,017 3,898 3,898 Other 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 K - 12 Total 12,954 12,901 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Grand Total 12,954 12,950 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Source: New Haven Unified School District Student Data 5 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
H I S T O R I C A L EN R O LLM EN T • Enrollment in the New Haven Unified School District has decreased by 1,907 students • According to student data, 2019-20 enrollment (K-12) is 11,047 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 6 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
B I RT H D ATA • Birth data is used to project kindergarten enrollment 5 years later NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT ZIP CODES RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS Year 94536 94542 94544 94545 94552 94555 94587 2003 1,089 173 1,322 412 180 572 1,088 2004 1,053 137 1,299 406 176 579 1,029 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS 2005 1,079 132 1,393 440 149 566 968 2006 1,027 132 1,347 420 143 539 1,003 2,500 2007 1,042 124 1,335 475 145 599 1,024 2,000 2008 1,056 133 1,326 410 130 544 970 1,500 2009 1,039 156 1,334 433 113 533 970 1,000 2010 977 133 1,140 408 116 458 921 500 2011 1,011 142 1,177 427 109 477 900 0 2012 979 131 1,137 405 110 496 888 2013 978 155 1,141 412 104 465 929 94544 94587 2014 1,039 153 1,118 402 116 491 866 2015 1,012 159 1,103 415 93 468 915 2016 994 170 1,115 421 121 484 888 2017 991 167 1,039 414 122 458 822 2018 957 178 1,028 385 121 393 750 Source: California Department of Public Health 7 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
P O P U L AT I O N E S T I M AT E S ALAMEDA COUNTY ALAMEDA COUNTY • Total population in Alameda County is POPULATION ESTIMATES estimated to increase by approximately 140,000 120,000 4% from 2019 to 2024. 100,000 • 80,000 School-aged population (ages 5-18) is 60,000 estimated to decrease by 3,854 children, 40,000 20,000 or approximately 1% from 2019 to 2024. 0 Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-18 2019 2024 8 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
P O P U L AT I O N E S T I M AT E S BY CENSUS BLOCK GROUP 9 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T • Recommended, Low, Moderate, and High projection were developed • Recommended = based on more recent trends in the District • Low = conservative approach • Moderate projection = in this case reflects a 3–year weighted average of survival ratios at the elementary boundary level • High projection = liberal approach 10 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T HISTORICAL & PROJECTED ENROLLMENT -NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High 11 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T RECOMMENDED Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide Grade 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 K 916 894 827 762 827 827 827 827 827 827 1 736 768 748 693 638 693 693 693 693 693 2 704 725 756 738 682 630 682 682 682 682 3 754 697 717 747 729 675 622 675 675 675 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - 4 767 739 686 704 736 716 665 612 664 664 RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE 5 766 758 731 678 696 727 708 656 603 656 6 758 750 743 715 664 684 713 694 644 591 12,000 7 761 771 762 752 726 671 690 721 702 651 10,000 8 854 756 763 759 748 719 669 687 717 699 8,000 9 901 897 793 801 795 785 756 700 721 750 6,000 10 959 904 899 796 804 800 787 758 703 722 4,000 11 930 948 895 890 787 796 792 779 750 695 2,000 12 1,035 1,019 1,038 976 975 860 871 869 857 822 0 Grand Total 10,841 10,626 10,358 10,011 9,807 9,583 9,475 9,353 9,238 9,127 Source: Cooperative Strategies Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide Grade 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 K - 5 4,643 4,581 4,465 4,322 4,308 4,268 4,197 4,145 4,144 4,197 6 - 8 2,373 2,277 2,268 2,226 2,138 2,074 2,072 2,102 2,063 1,941 9 - 12 3,825 3,768 3,625 3,463 3,361 3,241 3,206 3,106 3,031 2,989 Grand Total 10,841 10,626 10,358 10,011 9,807 9,583 9,475 9,353 9,238 9,127 Source: Cooperative Strategies 12 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
FA C T O R S T O C O N S I D ER • It is important to continue to monitor enrollment trends and live birth trends as these factors impact future enrollment • The following factors can also cause significant change in projected student enrollment • • Boundary adjustments Magnet / charter / private school opening or closure • New school openings • Zoning changes • School closures • Annexations • Changes / additions in program • offerings Unplanned new housing activity • • Preschool programs Planned, but not built, housing • • Change in grade configuration School voucher programs • Interest rates / unemployment shifts • Intra- and inter-District transfer 13 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
C U R R EN T S U B D I V I S I O N S K-12 Total Average Housing Type Student Units Yield Count • 32 Apartment Complexes Apartment 2,960 1,028 0.35 Condominium 1,381 351 0.25 • 10 Condominium Complexes Manufactured 882 249 0.28 Townhome 1,747 966 0.55 • 2 Manufactured Complexes Single-Family 14,382 7,257 0.50 SUBDIVIDED TOTAL 21,352 9,851 0.46 • 12 Townhome Complexes Non-Subdivided - 192 - • 39 Single-Family Subdivisions Out of District - 854 - Unmatched - 150 STUDENT TOTAL - 11,047 - 15 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
H O U S I N G S T O C K 16 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
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