Conservatives 36, Liberals 33, NDP 18, Green 8, People’s 1 in latest Nanos federal tracking Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending March 8, 2019 (released March 12, 2019 - 6 am Eastern) NANO NOS Ideas powered by world-class data
At a a g glance Play with the data at the interactive Nanos portal at http://www.nanos.co/dataportal/> ballot tracking > issue tracking > economic tracking > cut the data by region and demographic and see the trend lines Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 36.1 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 32.9 per cent, the NDP at 17.9 percent, the BQ at 3.6 per cent, the Greens at 8.3 per cent and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 0.5 per cent. Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 48.2 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 46.2 per cent would consider voting Conservative. Four in ten (38.6%) would consider voting NDP, 30.2 per cent would consider voting Green, 10.7 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 23.6 per cent would consider voting for the BQ. Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 32.5 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (25.2%), Singh (7.4%), May (7.1%) and Bernier (2.5%). Twenty four per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred. Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Half of Canadians (49.9%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 40.2 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. One in four (28.3%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 36.2 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.9%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader 25.2 per cent said Blanchet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only). Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals with 53.6 points, the Conservatives 52.2 points, the NDP 41.1 points, the Greens 37.2 points, the People’s Party 28.1 points and the BQ 31.9 points (QC only). Visit the live Nanos data portal where you can dynamically chart ballot, preferred PM and Nanos Index numbers by region, gender and age. The methodology for the weekly tracking is posted here. PDFs of the polling reports are on the Nanos website. Contact: Nik Nanos, FMRIA Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 nik@nanos.co Twitter: @niknanos 2
A national dual-frame (land+cell) random Nanos Tracking Data Summary telephone survey is conducted weekly by Nanos Research using live agents. Oct 18 (Election 4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month The weekly tracking figures are based on Ballot This week Last week Call) Ago Ago Ago High Low a four-week rolling sample comprised of Liberal 32.9% 34.2% 39.1% 37.6% 34.1% 35.8% 41.1% 32.9% 1,000 interviews. To update the tracking Conservative 36.1% 34.7% 30.5% 35.9% 34.8% 33.1% 36.6% 27.5% a new week of 250 interviews is added NDP 17.9% 15.5% 19.7% 13.2% 15.8% 19.3% 22.0% 12.8% and the oldest week dropped. The margin Bloc 3.6% 3.6% 5.5% 3.1% 3.1% 4.5% 4.5% 1.8% of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents Green 8.3% 9.1% 4.6% 7.9% 8.2% 6.7% 9.1% 4.8% is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. People's 0.5% 0.7% -- 1.7% 0.8% -- 2.5% 0.5% Contact: Nik Nanos (613) 234-4666 x 237 Oct 18 4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month nnanos@nanosresearch.com Preferred Prime Minister This week Last week 2015 Ago Ago Ago High Low Twitter: @niknanos Trudeau 32.5% 35.2% 35.5% 35.5% 35.8% 39.2% 43.1% 32.5% Scheer 25.2% 25.0% 29.1% 24.9% 25.0% 23.2% 27.7% 20.0% Category order based on number of Singh 7.4% 6.2% 18.9% 5.9% 5.6% 9.4% 10.0% 5.0% seats in the House of Commons Blanchet 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 0.1% May 7.1% 7.3% 5.2% 6.4% 6.0% 5.9% 7.7% 4.3% Bernier 2.5% 2.1% -- 3.8% 2.1% -- 5.2% 2.1% Unsure 23.6% 22.5% 9.6% 22.1% 25.0% 19.7% 25.2% 17.2% Oct 18 4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month Canada Party Power Index This week Last week 2015 Ago Ago Ago High Low Liberal 53.6 55.8 58.1 55.8 55.6 56.8 58.6 53.6 Conservative 52.2 51.8 49.3 52.7 52.6 51.5 54.3 50.4 NDP 41.1 40.4 49.8 40.4 41.0 45.3 45.5 39.4 Bloc 31.9 31.5 31.5 29.2 31.1 29.3 34.6 23.9 Green 37.2 37.4 30.4 35.1 36.3 34.3 37.4 33.3 People's 28.1 27.9 -- 29.0 27.3 -- 29.5 25.4 www.nanos.co 3
A national dual-frame (land+cell) random Nanos Tracking Data Summary telephone survey is conducted weekly by Nanos Research using live agents. The weekly tracking figures are based on Oct 18 4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month Party Consider This week Last week 2015 Ago Ago Ago High Low a four-week rolling sample comprised of Liberal 48.2% 49.4% 54.7% 49.0% 47.1% 52.1% 53.6% 44.6% 1,000 interviews. To update the tracking Conservative 46.2% 46.3% 39.3% 46.5% 42.9% 48.2% 52.7% 42.9% a new week of 250 interviews is added and the oldest week dropped. The margin NDP 38.6% 37.1% 40.4% 34.0% 36.7% 40.3% 44.1% 32.7% of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents Bloc 23.6% 21.2% 30.4% 27.2% 27.6% 30.3% 30.3% 18.1% is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of Green 30.2% 30.1% 22.7% 28.4% 32.5% 31.2% 32.5% 25.9% 20. People's 10.7% 9.3% -- 9.1% 9.7% -- 12.4% 8.9% Contact: Nik Nanos (613) 234-4666 x 237 Has Qualities of a Good Political Oct 18 4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month nnanos@nanosresearch.com Leader This week Last week 2015 Ago Ago Ago High Low Twitter: @niknanos Trudeau 49.9% 52.5% 61.3% 52.6% 56.4% 57.8% 60.2% 49.9% Scheer 40.2% 39.1% 51.8% 39.1% 42.5% 38.8% 45.6% 35.4% Category order based on number of Singh 28.3% 27.1% 57.2% 28.3% 29.7% 38.3% 38.9% 25.7% seats in the House of Commons Blanchet 25.2% 25.2% 51.2% 22.7% 10.7% 29.2% 29.2% 10.7% May 36.2% 36.3% 36.4% 32.1% 34.1% 34.7% 38.3% 31.3% Bernier 17.9% 17.1% -- 19.6% 18.1% -- 21.6% 14.5% www.nanos.co 4
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice – Long Term Trend current local preferences? (Four week rolling average ending March 8, 2019 , n=834 Election 60% 49% 50% 40% 35% 36% 33% 30% 20% 18% 10% 10% 8% 4% 4% 6% 1% 0% LP CP NDP BQ GP PPC www.nanos.co 5
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice – 12 Month Trend current local preferences? (Four week rolling average ending March 8, 2019 , n=834 45% 40% 36% 35% 33% 30% 25% 20% 18% 15% 10% 8% 5% 4% 1% 0% LP CP NDP BQ GP PPC www.nanos.co 6
Federal Party Accessible Voters Nanos Weekly Tracking A proven track record of accuracy
National – Weekly Tracking (Ending March 8, 2019 , n=1,000) 70% Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would 60% consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party 50% 50% Contact: Nik Nanos 48% Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 39% 40% nnanos@nanosresearch.com 37% 30% 20% 14% 10% 10% 0% 2013-08-17 2014-08-17 2015-08-17 2016-08-17 2017-08-17 2018-08-17 Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure www.nanos.co 8
National – Weekly Tracking (Ending March 8, 2019 , n=1,000) Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would 70% consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party 60% Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 51% Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 50% nnanos@nanosresearch.com 46% 38% 40% 39% 30% 20% 15% 10% 10% 0% 2013-08-17 2014-08-17 2015-08-17 2016-08-17 2017-08-17 2018-08-17 Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure www.nanos.co 9
National – Weekly Tracking (Ending March 8, 2019 , n=1,000) 70% Question: For each of the following federal 60% political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP 50% 47% Contact: Nik Nanos 45% Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 40% 43% 39% nnanos@nanosresearch.com 30% 20% 16% 10% 10% 0% 2013-08-10 2014-08-10 2015-08-10 2016-08-10 2017-08-10 2018-08-10 Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure www.nanos.co 10
Quebec only – Weekly Tracking (Ending March 8, 2019, 2017, n=248) 80% 70% Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would 60% 60% consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois 49% 50% Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 40% nnanos@nanosresearch.com 42% 30% 24% 20% 16% 10% 7% 0% 2013-08-17 2014-08-17 2015-08-17 2016-08-17 2017-08-17 2018-08-17 Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure www.nanos.co 11
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