Models The Joy of Speculation scientific method What is it? Is - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 13, 2022 •370 likes •562 views

Models The Joy of Speculation scientific method What is it? Is this how science works? When I examine myself and my methods of thought, I come close to the conclusion that the gift of imagination has meant more to me than any talent for

Models The Joy of Speculation
scientific method What is it?
Is this how science works?
“When I examine myself and my methods of thought, I come close to the conclusion that the gift of imagination has meant more to me than any talent for absorbing absolute knowledge.” –Albert Einstein
Scientific Method • concepts • models • measurements • comparisons
How do I build a model?!
Exercise Some people vote. Others abstain. Why? 1. Make a causal claim (i.e., ______ causes people to vote). 2. Elaborate and explain your causal claim (i.e., identify the costs and benefits or the psychological mechanisms.)
A Model of the Model-Building Process • Step 1: Observe some facts. • Step 2: Speculate about the causal process that produced these facts. • Step 3: Deduce other implications. • Step 4: Observe whether the new implications are true.
Turn the crank of social science.
Rules of Thumb • Rule 1: Think “process.” • Rule 2: Develop interesting implications. • Rule 3: Look for generality. • Rule 4: Realize that model-building is a slow process. • Rule 5: Talk about your ideas.
Evaluating Models • Truth - critical experiments • Beauty • Justice
Turnout varies substantially across countries. On average, turnout is about 48% in the U.S., 83% in Brazil, 87% in Denmark, and 93% in Chile. Many researchers believe that low turnout is a problem for a democracy, and would like to see higher turnout increase in the US. • Make up two theories or models that would explain the variation in turnout across countries. • Find some critical fact/situation/observation/prediction that will distinguish between the two models. Be explicit about how it simultaneously confirms one model and contradicts the other. • Based on your model, what changes might the U.S. make to increase participation in elections?

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