Modeling of environmental load generation by household with - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling of environmental load generation by household with household production and lifestyle model The 12th AIM Workshop @ NIES 19-21, February 2007 February 19th, 2007 Graduate school of Engineering Kyoto University Yuko KANAMORI

1. Background and objective Environmental problems ・・・ Global warming Waste problems etc Construction of Sustainable Society Change of Change of lifestyles social construction To estimate relationship between household consumption and generated environmental load

2. Household Production and Lifestyle Model Demographic structure Model [Main] ・ 2 modules are the main Population part to estimate lifestyle change. Macro Economic Model [Sub] Consumption expenditure Household ・ Demographic structure per household model ･･･ Composition of Goods and service population and household are preference module estimated. Consumption expenditure ・ Macro economic per capita model ･･･ Economic values Material and Energy are estimated. In this model, Balance module household consumption is estimated. Environmental load

2-1. Goods and Service Preference Module Utility of household production Utility function ・・・ ・・・ Commodity1 Commodity i Commodity9 Leontief production function Outside home activity Inside home activity (service) ・ Dining-out service ・ Housing ・ Laundry service ・ Durable Capital Service Goods Time Time ・ Haircut service goods ・ Public bath service etc. ・ Passenger transport service etc.

2-1. Equations of Household Economy 1 The production function of Becker’s commodity Commodity Input of goods and services Input of time ⎧ ⎫ ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞ ⎪ ⎪ x t ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = ij ⎨ ⎬ ik Z min min , min ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ i ⎪ ⎪ ⎝ ⎠ a b ⎝ ⎠ j k ⎩ ⎭ ij ik Fixed input-output coefficients Amusement TV Time for watching TV Book Time for reading books

2-1. Equations of Household Economy 2 ・ The separate goods and time constraints can be converted into a single total resource constraint Saving Price of commodity Unearned income Full income ∑ = + − = + π F wT V K S i Z i i Commodity Wage rate Non-living expenditure Total time J K ∑ ∑ π = + p a w b i ij ij ik = = j 1 k 1 Price of goods Price of time and services

2-1. Equations of Household Economy 3 Preference function of commodity ( ) = → L L U f Z , , Z , , Z max 1 i n Which function does fit the Japanese consumption expenditure data? ・ LES (Linear expenditure system) ・ AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System ) ・ Logit model

2-2. Material and Energy Balance Module Environmental Environmental Goods and services load generation load exhaust Industry House House Household construction construction waste waste Goods Non- Energy Energy durable consumption consumption Packaging goods material Solid waste Solid waste Goods Stock of Durable Bulky waste durable goods Bulky waste goods House Water pollutants Water Service Air pollutants pollutants Service Air Service pollutants Recycle Recycle Household Estimation of Disposal inseide expenditure house purchase model Flows of goods and services Flow of money

2-2. Equations of Material and Energy Balance Module (Goods and Packaging materials) Consumption Price expenditure , = h h X E p Goods j t j , t j , t Rate of packaging material carried in to the amount of purchased goods Packaging = ⋅ h h XP c X materials j , t pc , j j , t ∑ ∑ = ⋅ + ⋅ h h h WG C X C D w , t j , w j , t j , w j , w ∈ ∈ j GND j GD Non-durable Durable goods goods

2-2. Equations of Material and Energy Balance Module (Service) Household production Service activity alternative Which is an eco-friendly activity? Which is an eco-friendly activity? Service ① Dining-out service ② Laundry service ③ Haircut service ④ Public bath service ⑤ Passenger transport service ( ) = ⋅ j h j WG E p UW t j , t j Unit service Amount of environmental load per unit service

2-3. Macro Economic Model Population Rate of Crude oil price (Age: 15 ～ 64) technical progress ・ This model is based on Murakami’s macro WPI Import deflator Labor force GDP (real) economic model. Capital stock in private business sector (Murakami, 2006) Capital investment GDP in private sector deflator ・ We estimate Private Final consumption expenditure consumption expenditure Endogenous variable per capita by household Import type using this model. Exogenous variable Export ・ Structure equations: 65 GDP (nominal) World trade ・ Definitional equation: 31 Corporate income National income Personal income ・ Endogenous variables: 80 Personal disposable income Household consumption

2-4. Demographic structure model Phase: Population Phase: Population Phase: Household Phase: Household Household size by Household size by Base population Base population household type household type (2000) (2000) (over age 15) (over age 15) Source ： Census Source ： Census (2000) (2000) Source ： census Source ： census Cohort Cohort Rate of Rate of Annual Annual Position Position Cohort TFR Cohort TFR Number of Number of married time married time first marriage first marriage fertility rate fertility rate transform matrix transform matrix births births Logistic Logistic logarithmic gamma logarithmic gamma Logistic Logistic logarithmic gamma logarithmic gamma model model distribution model distribution model model model distribution model distribution model Transition probability Transition probability matrix between matrix between household type household type and position and position Annual Annual Number of Number of death rates death rates mortalities mortalities ・ Population and Lee-Carter Lee-Carter model model household are estimated Net migration rate Net migration rate Net migration Net migration using 5 variables (TFR Position Position (Japanese) (Japanese) (Japanese) (Japanese) transform matrix transform matrix etc…) with this model. Net migration rate Net migration rate Net migration Net migration ・ We can estimate (Foreign nationals) (Foreign nationals) (Foreign (Foreign Number of mothers Number of mothers nationals) nationals) by household type by household type Logistic Logistic and mother’s age and mother’s age population by household model model Population by Population by type and household head’s household type household type and and mother’s age mother’s age age. (Under age 15) (Under age 15) Source: Yamashita(2007) Household size by Household size by Household size by Population Population Population Household type Household type Household type (Future) (Future) (Future) (Future) (Future) (Future)

3. Model Description 1 The household type was taken into consideration as a factor which effects a household behavior. ・ Household type (4type) ・ Household head’s age (2 type) 4 × 2 × 3=24 type ・ Income classification (3 type) Ex.) Classification of household type Type 1 Single-person household Type 2 Household with husband, wife and unmarried child or no child Type 3 Household with single parent and unmarried child Type 4 Others

3. Model Description 2 ○ Country Japan ○ Commodity 11 commodity ○ Goods and service About 300 goods and services ○ Environmental Load 39 environmental load ・ Estimation of parameters (1987 ～ 2002) Consumption expenditure data Annual Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey ・ Simulation period : 2003 ～ 2030

3. Verification (material and energy balance module) Estimated Reported Input data: Consumption Environmental load value ( R ) ( E ) / ( R ) value ( E ) expenditure data (1995) Household waste Paper 2290 3920 0.58 (10 3 t) Plastic 466 478 0.97 Texitile 887 886 1.00 Rubber 101 105 0.96 Skin 182 152 1.20 Reported value Glass 173 210 0.82 Household waste Metal 394 338 1.17 Waste treatment in Japan Wood 121 140 0.86 Survey on waste composition Pottery 94 105 0.90 in Kyoto city Kichen garebage 11400 12600 0.90 Packaging materialDrink can 964 1000 0.96 (10 3 t) Electricity consumption ・・・ Drink glass bottle 1330 1400 0.95 PET bottle 145 142 1.02 Outline of electricity demand CO 2 emission Electricity (h) 18600 22449 0.83 （ 10 3 t-C ） Town gas (h) 4030 5384 0.75 Town gas ・ LPG ・ Kerosene LPG (h) 3860 4356 0.89 consumption ・・・ Kerosene (h) 8080 8498 0.95 Comprehensive energy Gasoline ・ Light oil (h) 21410 21057 1.02 statistics Taxi (s) 66.4 72.95 0.91 Bus (s) 1290 1359 0.95 Rail (s) 216 225 0.96 Water supply ・・・ Water consumption (10 6 m 3 ) 5660 5540 1.02 Water system statistics

3. Result---Macro economic model and Population model--- • Macro economic model 2 type scenarios Disposable income per capita in 2030 (comparing to 2000) 1.701 times (scenario A) 1.135 times (scenario B) • Demographic structure model Population in 2030 About 116 (million people)