The Linking of Flagships, Sister Journals and OA “Mega -Journals" into Content Ecosystems: The Robustness of This Evolving Publishing Structure NFAIS October 2018
• 15 years in executive strategy, marketing and M&A roles at Elsevier, ProQuest, National Academies • McKinsey alum • Postdoc Wharton, PhD Penn James Phimister, PhD • Started in 2015 • “We help science, medical, and information companies grow.” • 10 years in market research, • Specializing in strategy, market data analytics, customer research, M&A, Open Access surveys, strategy and strategy engagement roles at Elsevier • Masters, Organizational PHIPerspectives.com Psychology, NYU clientservices@PHIperspectives.com Dori Gardner PHI Perspectives
Topics for today • What is a linked content ecosystem (aka a cascade)? • Cascades in practice • Cascades and open access • How cascades may respond to cOAlition S PHI Perspectives 3
What is is a cascading content ec ecosystem? • A “cascade” allows for the transfer of rejected manuscripts from one title to another. • Often cascades are built within a publisher’s portfolio. • Sometimes they are highly structured, other times they Licensed from Getty Images are less formal. PHI Perspectives 4
Traditio ional l publi lishin ing man anuscrip ipt flo flow Submissions Competitor journal Competitor Premier journal journal Competitor journal How it works: Manuscripts are submitted to a ‘premier journal,’ where a small percent Journal are accepted. Authors then often submit within their rejected manuscripts to an array of publisher publishers (which may include the publisher of the ‘premier journal.’ PHI Perspectives
Cascading publisher system fl flow Submissions Competitor Premier journal journal Competitor journal How it works: Manuscripts are submitted to a Premier Journal where a small percent are accepted. A large percentage of the “rejected manuscripts” are Competitor then submitted to journals within Subscription Hybrid OA journal the publisher’s portfolio via a journal journal journal within within manuscript transfer system. In within publisher publisher publisher turn fewer “rejected manuscripts” (versus before) are submitted to The competitor publishers. Cascade Mega journal within publisher PHI Perspectives
The benefits – For th the auth thor • Saves authors energy of Premier journal reformatting and resubmitting • Faster publication through transfer of review • Option to “aim high” Subscription Hybrid OA journal • Maybe easier to manage journal journal within within within publisher publisher publisher Open Access requirements ? The Cascade Mega journal within publisher PHI Perspectives 7
The benefits – For th the publisher (t (there are many) • Expands proposition to Premier journal authors • Keeps desired manuscripts within portfolio [doesn’t lose them to competitors] • Lifts impact factors of lower- tiered journals • Reinforces brand Subscription Hybrid OA journal • Feeds OA journals and journal journal within within within megajournals publisher publisher publisher The • Increases revenues Cascade Mega journal within publisher PHI Perspectives 8
The downsides … are oft ften experienced by smaller publishers • Rejected manuscripts are staying within Competitor a publisher’s portfolio reducing journal submissions to smaller publishers • Pool of remaining inflow to smaller publishers may be of lesser quality, Competitor reducing publication impact factors and journal diminishing a smaller publisher’s brand. • Smaller publishers may not have the submission volume to build a cascade Competitor system. journal “I’ve heard from smaller society publishers that they are suffering from declining submissions from titles located upstream. Rejections from Lancet , JAMA , and Cell are flowing down their own journal cascades.” - Phil Davis, The Scholarly Kitchen PHI Perspectives 9
We belie lieve the im impact of cascades are profound, , if if unseen 1. Cascades have resulted in a consolidation of papers around key, high profile brands (e.g. Nature, Science, etc.). 2. Cascades have fueled the growth of Open Access: Est. ~ 25%-40% of OA publishing revenues are in titles that are part of cascades. 3. Cascades create significant challenges for smaller publishers who do not possess leading brand titles. PHI Perspectives 10
How are cascades ty typically str tructured? Positioning Model • • Highly curated Typically subscription, • High reject rate often with archive open Premier • • Tier 1 Positioned as the May (reluctantly) take journal flagship that APCs • others extend off High editorial input • • Focused on domain Mix of models Subscription Hybrid • • Rejection rate 50%- Sold in packages OA journal journal journal • Tier 2 90% Limited editorial within within within publisher • Positioned and input/copyediting etc. publisher publisher named as ‘sister’ titles • • Multidisciplinary APC driven Tier 3 Mega journal within publisher • • Reject rate 40%-80% Highly automated PHI Perspectives 11
AAAS has built out a three-tier cascade, le led by the fl flagship Science tit itle *Was previously Science STKE and launched in 1999 PHI Perspectives 12
Nature has buil ilt out tie iered jo journal branding and la launched two successful megajournals nature Research Journals PHI Perspectives 13
The La Lancet has built a th three-tier str tructure wit ith it its lo lowest ti tier done in partnership wit in ith Cell Press (w (who also have a th three ti tier structure) OA OA OA OA OA Joint venture with Cell Press 14 PHI Perspectives
PLOS has a two tie ier stru ructure wit ith the PLOS brand ext xtending across all ll tit itles PHI Perspectives 15
Cascades and Open Access: Open Access works at t th the bottom of f th the cascade – it it tends not to at t th the top Model Primarily Manuscript flow down subscription Premier the cascade can drive journal revenue growth Though this revenue growth can be less Mix of Models attractive than the top of Subscription Hybrid the pyramid OA journal journal journal • within It has lower margin within within publisher • publisher publisher There are perverse incentives – accept more, streamline more, cut on quality Open Access (APC) Mega journal within publisher PHI Perspectives 16
Cascade systems drive growth of Megajournals Description: • Journals have very large scope • Online only - not inhibited by page numbers or articles per issue • Publication not restricted to “novel” or “moving the science forward” research • Peer review is often different – focusing on scientific method, not findings Business model: • APCs: APCs with fees ranging from $400-$5,300. Typically CC-BY or CC-BY-NC (or some custom variant). Quality and impact: • Acceptance rates : Acceptance rates are often lower for megajournals, typically 40-70% • A few megajournals ( Nature Communications , Science Advances ) have lower acceptance rates – e.g. in the 20%-30%. PHI Perspectives
Megajournals are fed by cascade systems Megajournals articles published • Megajournals, including Nature (thousands) 60 Communications, PLoS One, Other 55 Scientific Reports benefit from a +18% BMJ Open cascade system 48 Medicine Nature Comm 41 • Since PLoS ONE launched in 38 2006, megajournals have PLOS ONE become a significant presence 26 and a large revenue generator, with estimated more than $100M in 2017 Scientific Reports • New entrants include JAMA Network Open, Science Advances 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and ACS Omega 18 Sources: Web of Science, PLoS, https://megajournals.info/, https://elifesciences.org/annual-reports https://peerj.com/articles/4357/ PHI Perspectives
How cascades have responded to Open Access - generally th they are resilient Response to OA • Often either in compliance or Premier waivers are granted journal • Generally in compliance (e.g. with Subscription Hybrid OA journal author archiving) or journal journal options exist. • Almost always in Mega journal compliance (devil can be in the license) PHI Perspectives 19
How might th the model respond to cOAlition S? - For many, it it will be a challenge Challenges • Cascades generally don’t work as fully Premier OA – though PLoS journal is a notable exception. • cOAlition S Many titles will have to fold or migrate. Hybrid Subscription OA Investments in new journal journal journal subscription titles will wither. • Bottom tier may be Mega journal unaffected, benefit, or have some negative impact. PHI Perspectives 20
So what have we covered? • What are cascading ecosystems • Cascades in practice • Cascades and Open Access • How cascades may respond to cOAlition S PHI Perspectives 21
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