Mapping Our Future: Forecasting the 2021 Congressional Remap David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Harvard CGA Conference on Redistricting May 3, 2019 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict The opinions presented are those of the presenter only.
Lifestyle Realignment of the Electorate ← Austin, TX Lebanon, TN →
The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort Election Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Election Culture Year Gap 59% 40% 1992 19% Clinton (D) 64% 41% 1996 23% Clinton (D) 75% 44% 31% 2000 Bush (R) 79% 39% 40% 2004 Bush (R) Obama (D) 78% 43% 2008 35% Obama (D) 75% 46% 2012 29%
Trump Era: Huge Suburban/Rural Divide Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Winner Counties Counties Election Culture Year Gap 76% 54% 22% 2016 Trump (R) 2016: Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was widest ever. 2018: 70% of districts Democrats flipped contain a Whole Foods.
Yes, Gerrymandering Can Be Extreme. But, It Only Explains 17% of the “Swing District” Decline. 2016 Election: 78% of Democratic-leaning seats became even more Democratic & 65% of Republican-leaning seats became even more GOP.
Remap 2021: Who Gains and Loses?
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