Jon Bereisa President & CEO Auto Lectrification LLC
1904 1928 1934 Electric Vehicles are Here to Stay….. …..Really? 1964 1968 1973 1980 1996 2011 Jon Bereisa, Auto Lectrification LLC
Technology had to Catch Up To The Idea Credible Early Start 1904 Lost Competitive Advantage 1928 1934 Slow Fade Out …….Obsoleted by Competing Technology…… ………..Followed By Multiple Restarts…………. 1964 1968 1973 First Digital Motor Control Theory 1980 First Battery Management System 1996 2011 First IGBT Power Switches First High Cycle Life Battery Compact High Speed Motors With Low Cost Potential Microcomputer Vector Controls High Energy and High Power Battery
1996 EV Technical Feasibility Yes…. …..Commercial Viability Not Yet
1996 EV Value Proposition Great Product VALUE/UTILITY Poor Product Range, Seating Recombinant Lead Acid Battery EV’s PRICE
1998 EV Value Proposition Great Product VALUE/UTILITY Poor Product Nickel Metal Hydride Battery EV’s Range, Seating Recombinant Lead Acid Battery EV’s PRICE
1990’s Market Forces Pro EV California ZEV Mandate Vehicle Emissions Global Warming EV Infrastructure ???? High Performance SUV’s Customer EV Awareness Energy Security Con EV $ 20 Oil and $0.90 Gas
Lightweight, Energy Pro EV Con EV Efficient Vehicles with Crash Avoidance Vehicle Emissions 2011 Market Forces $ 100 Oil and $4.00 Gas Technology Rationalized ZEV Mandate Global Warming CO2 Energy Security Government Policy and Financial Support Customer Awareness EV Infrastructure
2011/12 EV Technical Feasibility…… Success Commercial Viability …… in Sight
And This Time New Entrants And This Time New Entrants
2011 EV Value Proposition Great Product VALUE/UTILITY Poor Product Range Gen 1 Lithium Ion Battery EV’s PRICE
Closing the Range and Cost Gap ….Battery Technology…. • Gen 2 Lithium Ion Battery Technology Demonstrating Full Scale Potential for 2 to 4X Energy Density Improvement with Corresponding Cost Reduction – Improved cathode materials – New forms of anode materials – High voltage electrolytes • “Gen After Next” Solid State Battery Technology Lab Results Encouraging – More than sufficient energy and power – Superior long life
2015 ‐ 25 EV Value Proposition Great Product VALUE/UTILITY Solid State Battery EV’s Poor Product Gen 2 Lithium Ion EV’s Range Gen 1 Lithium Ion Battery EV’s PRICE
Closing the Range and Cost Gap ….Vehicle Technology…. • Energy Efficient, Lower Mass Vehicle Architectures to Address CAFE and CO2 …. 30% Mass Improvement Potential – More range for same battery, same range for lower cost battery, or combinations • Crash Avoidance Technology Further Enabling Smaller and Lighter Vehicles • Novel More Accurate Range Prediction Algorithms Combined with Navigation – Cloud based mobile applications considering – Road grade and elevation effects, local temperature and wind effects
Closing the Range and Cost Gap ….More Infrastructure Deployment …. • Only 47% US Residents Have a Dedicated Parking Spot • City and MegaCity Residents Have Virtually None • For Mass Market EV Acceptance Public Access Charging Essential US MegaCity 70% 5% Enroute 10% Workplace 20% Public Parking 85% Home Overnight 10%
Why Not
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