Japan: Clear Visions Japan: Clear Visions Make It Possible Make It - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf Japan: Clear Visions Japan: Clear Visions Make It Possible Make It Possible to Reduce of to Reduce of 70% 70% CO 2 Emissions by 2050 CO Emissions by 2050 1. If we cannot go to LCS,… 2. LCS offers higher QOL with less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply 3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations Designed by Hajime Sakai Junichi Fujino (fuji@ nies.go.jp) NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan “Low -Carbon Asia: To be or not to be” How to Align Climate Change and Sustainable Development 1 COP13 and CMP3 Side Event, 8 December 2007

http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html 2

Research project on Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios development 3 FY2004-2008 sponsored by Ministry of the Environment, Japan

As for LCS visions, As for LCS visions, we prepared two different we prepared two different but likely future societies but likely future societies Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei” Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Nature-oriented Urban/Individual Decentralized/Community Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Technology breakthrough, Self-sufficient, Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, Centralized production Produce locally, consume who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a /recycle locally pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole. Individual Comfort and Social and Cultural Values Convenience 2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and Akemi magical creatures inhabited. Imagawa 4

Projected Japan population and households in scenario A 140 120 age 100% Type of household (%) 80- 100 Population (Thousand) (Million) 80% Others 60-79 80 40-59 Parent- 60% Children 60 20-39 One-Person 0-19 40% 40 Couple-Only 20 20% Couple- Children 0 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 year 2000 2050 A B Population (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3 Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 38.0 35.8 Average number of household 2.71 2.19 2.38 Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1 5 http://2050.nies.go.jp

LCS house in 2050 Utilizing solar power Comfortable and energy-saving house Eco-life education Photovoltaic 10-20% energy 34-69MW rooftop demand reduction (25-47% houses with PV on roof (now 1%)) gardening and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV High efficiency lighting Solar heating 【 eg LED lighting 】 Diffusion rate: 20-60% Reduce 1/2 （ currently 8% ） energy demand Share 100% Monitoring system High-insulation equipped with appliances Reduce 60% warming Super high energy demand, efficiency air share 100% conditioner Fuel cell COP (coefficients of performance=8), Heat-pump heating share 0-20% share 100% COP ＝ 5 Stand-by energy share 30-70% Good information for reduction High efficiency appliances economy and environment Reduce 1/3 energy reduce energy demand and demand, makes people’s behavior 6 support comfortable and safe lifestyle share 100% low-carbon

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air- -conditioners for cooling and heating conditioners for cooling and heating Air 9.0 MOE 8.0 AIST Historical COP (Coefficient of performance) 7.0 2050s Best 6.0 Target METI METI 5.0 4.0 Average 3.0 Worst 2.0 Top-runner approach 1.0 0.0 7 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Residential sector Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50% Energy demand reduction potential: 50% Change of the number 70 of households Change of service 60 demand per household Change of energy 4 4 3 3 demand per household Energy Consumption (Mtoe) Insulation system 50 9 10 Improvement of energy efficiency Electricity consumption 40 17 H2 consumption 23 Energy Efficiency 30 Solar consumption Biomass consumption 20 Gas consumption 10 Oil consumption 0 Energy consumption in 2000 2050A 2050B 2000 Change in the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B Change in service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household 8 Change in energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/TheMeetingPlace/Activities/Activities2007/0706AchievingSustainableLCS.aspx How to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger transportation sector Demand management e.g. by information- (1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26 communication technology [transport-service per capita] Modal shift to reduce CO 2 EF Improve fuel economy per passenger-km or ton-km [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] ⎛ ⎞ CO TransServ P km ( Tkm ) Vkm Fuel CO EF ∑ = × × ⎜ × × ⎟ 2 2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ capita capita TransServ Pkm ( Tkm ) Vkm Fuel Mode Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Introduce low carbon energy Improve accessibility [CO 2 emission factor per fuel [passenger-km or ton-km consumption] per transport-service] Yuichi Moriguchi, 2 nd Japan-UK joint research project workshop (2007.6) 9

Estimated regional automotive CO 2 emissions 2.50 Tokyo Met. Nagoya Met. Osaka Met. 2.00 Other Areas Freight vehicles 1.50 1.00 Passenger cars 0.50 0.00 [t/year] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Accumulated population [million] CO2 per capita Each Area is categorized in 1. Major cities 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million 6. Counties Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita) Yuichi Moriguchi, 2 nd Japan-UK 10 joint research project workshop (2007.6)

TOD (Transit Oriented Development) in local city • Lack of public transport for cities of less population than one millions. • It has been difficult to manage LRT because “self- supporting accounting system” was required. Toyama Light Rail(2006.4.26-) • Upgrading from traditional tram has started. Yuichi Moriguchi, 2 nd Japan-UK 11 joint research project workshop (2007.6)

New concepts for personal mobility Yamaha EC-02 the Segway Human Transporter Toyota i-Swing Kawamura cycle KE Yuichi Moriguchi, 2 nd Japan-UK (catalog information) 12 joint research project workshop (2007.6)

Passenger transportation Energy demand reduction potential: 80% Change of total 60 transportation amount 1 Change of structure of 4 Decrease of demand 6 transportation 50 7 4 Modal shift Decrease of service Energy demands (Mtoe) demand Land use Change 6 Improvement of 40 energy efficiency Electricity Energy Efficiency 30 32 H2 28 Solar 20 Biomass 10 Gas Oil 0 Energy demands in 2000 2050A 2050B 2000 13

Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Trans. Prv. Residential 2000(Actual) Industrial We can reduce 40% energy input Trans. Frg. Commercial while satisfying service demand 2050(Scenario A) 40-45% energy demand Decrease of reduces by structural change of demand, energy demand and efficiency 2050(Scenario B) improvement Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg. Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight) Possible energy demands reductions for each sector: Industry ： structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20~40 ％ Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80 ％ Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60~70 ％ Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50 ％ Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40 ％ 14 14

Energy supply for achieving 70% Energy supply for achieving 70% reduction of CO 2 emissions reduction of CO 2 emissions Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) And we need low-carbon energy. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 How to mix with 2000(Actual) Coal Oil Gas - Renewable energy - Nuclear energy Nuclear 2050(Scenario A) Centralized style Decentralized style - Fossil fuel + CCS Micro grid Biomass 2050(Scenario B) Solar and Wind Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind 1% of GDP is necessary to diffuse LCS technologies for Scenario A and B 15 15

7 Current per capita CO 2 emissions 6 CO 2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) $200/t-C scenario and Target US 5 US: delay for tech development, Canada global warming business 4 EU: Initiatives toward LCS Japan: Need long-term vision UK Germany 3 METI, Japan Developing countries: early 2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key 2 France Japan 2050 scenario World 1 Target for China IA2 Low Carbon Society IB1 India 0 Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event 16 Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005