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Introduction The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Introduction The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC) comprise the Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA). PEFA worked with the Loudon County Mayors

  2. Introduction • The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC) comprise the Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA). • PEFA worked with the Loudon County Mayor’s Office, Lenoir City Schools, and Loudon County Schools to evaluate education facility needs. March 1, 2007

  3. Introduction Project Components • Overview of recent trends in public school enrollment, demographics, and land development in Loudon County. • Countywide, school-by-school, and bus zone enrollment projections. • Comparison of enrollments (actual and projected) to facility capacities. • Assessment of physical condition of all public school buildings. March 1, 2007

  4. Demographic Trends March 1, 2007

  5. Demographic Trends Countywide Enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07 • Total enrollment in regular day classes across Loudon County (including Lenoir City) showed average annual increase of 1.1 percent in past 5 years, reaching 7,200 students this year. • Elementary schools (K-5) combined for a 6.6 percent increase since 2002/03. • High schools added 3.4 percent, while middle school grades gained a modest 2.2 percent in five years. March 1, 2007

  6. COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2002/03-2006/07 4000 3500 3000 2500 Enrollment 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 School Year Elementary (K-5) Middle (6-8) High (9-12) March 1, 2007

  7. Demographic Trends Pre-School Enrollment • Enrollments DO NOT INCLUDE pre-school, currently comprising about 250 children countywide. • Children are not required to attend pre-school. • Many private pre-kindergarten opportunities exist in Loudon County. • Not practical to model decision-making processes of families in terms of pre-school participation. March 1, 2007

  8. Demographic Trends Pre-School Enrollment • Although enrollments were excluded, classroom space dedicated to pre-school education was addressed. • Rooms assigned to pre-school instruction were set aside and reserved for future pre-school use, not re-assigned to current or future K-12 enrollments. March 1, 2007

  9. Demographic Trends Out-Of-County (OOC) Enrollment • In 2002/03, OOC students totaled nearly 700, about 10 percent of countywide enrollment. • That number dropped to just under 600 students this year, when OOC policy changed. • OOC students no longer allowed to transfer into Loudon system unless: – they are children of school employees. – they have sibling currently attending same school in which they would be eligible to enroll. • OOC students already in system can remain through graduation. March 1, 2007

  11. Demographic Trends General Population Trends • Between 1990 and 2000, Loudon County’s population grew at an average annual increase of 2.5 percent. • In past five years, pace slowed to 2.2 percent growth annually, with total population currently at 43,387. March 1, 2007

  12. Demographic Trends General Population Trends • School-age children (5-19 years old) steadily lost shares of total population between 1980 and 2000, dropping from 24 percent of total to 18 percent. • Population 55 years and over grew 4.7 percent per year during 1990s. • By 2020, the number of persons aged 55 years and over will increase to 22,300, representing nearly 40 percent of the county population. March 1, 2007

  13. Demographic Trends Sources of Population Growth • Migration was primary determinant of population growth in past six years. • Domestic rather than international migration. • More than 8,600 current residents are new to Loudon County, having lived in a different county or state in 1995. March 1, 2007

  14. LOUDON COUNTY NET MIGRATION, 2001-2005 1,200 1,000 800 Net Migration 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Net Migration 5-Year Average (822) March 1, 2007

  15. Development Trends March 1, 2007

  16. Development Trends Recent Rates of New Home Construction • Pace of residential construction activity accelerated during 1990s in Loudon County. • First half of 1990s: average of 406 new homes constructed annually, which was double the rate recorded in the 1980s. • Second half of 1990s: pace increased again, with 508 homes built each year. • Rates have remained at that level for the past six years. March 1, 2007

  17. Development Trends Recreation/Retirement-Oriented Development • Loudon County is rapidly growing as center for lifestyles oriented to lakefront, golf, luxury, and retirement living, evidenced by large-scale residential projects like Tellico Village and Rarity Bay. • 5,800 building lots approved in Tellico Village, with about 2,800 homes currently in place. • Thousands more homesites platted: Tennessee National (1,700 sites), Rarity Pointe (1,200 sites), and, currently under review, Rarity Landings (1,500 sites). • Expecting few families with school-age children. March 1, 2007

  18. Development Trends Conventional Development • Growth areas include recently-sewered corridor of northeast Loudon County and an area northwest of Lenoir City. • Several subdivisions platted or underway. • Expecting many families with school-age children. March 1, 2007

  19. Development Trends Conventional Development • Development in the identified single-family growth areas has averaged about 105 new homes per year since 2000. • Placement of sewer lines likely to accelerate residential construction, but growth controls (impact fees) might offset gains if developers balk at additional building costs. March 1, 2007

  21. Development Trends Student Yields • Very few families that purchase homes in recreation/retirement/luxury developments have children of school-age. • Fewer than 100 school-age children in Tellico Village. • Tellico Village: 0.03 school children per housing unit. Equates to 3 children for every 100 homes. March 1, 2007

  22. Development Trends Student Yields In conventional housing developments: • Detached units generate 0.494 children under 18 years of age, per unit. • Attached (townhomes/condominiums): 0.160 • Apartments: 0.689 • Mobile homes: 0.725 March 1, 2007

  23. Development Trends Student Yields - Example • Detached housing yield of 0.494 children per unit. • 100 new detached homes: approximately 49 children expected. • Does not mean that 49 children will enter public school system. • 25 percent of those children will be under age 5. • 4.8 percent, on average, will be homeschooled or will attend some form of private education. • Original generation of 49 children will net about 35 children that will likely enter public school. March 1, 2007

  24. Enrollment Projections March 1, 2007

  25. Enrollment Projections Series of 10-year projections (2007-2016) for Loudon County and Lenoir City schools • Three scales of reporting: – countywide. – school-by-school. – bus zones. March 1, 2007

  26. Enrollment Projections Growth Scenarios • Baseline: – Assumed growth trends of past five years will continue over next 10 years. – Births will grow in number, but at slow pace. March 1, 2007

  27. Enrollment Projections Growth Scenarios • Moderate: – Assumed in-migration will be consistent with past two years and continue over next 10 years. – There will be more kindergartners than births (five years earlier) over next 10 years. – Births will increase moderately over next 10 years. March 1, 2007

  28. Enrollment Projections Growth Scenarios • Accelerated: – Same as moderate for migration and kindergartners. – Births will increase over next 10 years. – Residential construction in northeast portion of county and northwest Lenoir City will grow faster than previous years. March 1, 2007

  29. Enrollment Projections Methodology Summary The 10-year enrollment projection model relied on the following data: • Actual school enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07. • Grade progression ratios, 2002/03-2006/07. • Actual births, 1990-2004. • Projected births, 2005-2011. • Kindergarten-to-birth ratios, 2002/03-2006/07. • Residential growth factor. March 1, 2007

  30. Countywide Projections March 1, 2007

  31. Enrollment Enrollment Growth % Growth Year 2006/07 2016/17 2006-2016 2006-2016 COUNTYWIDE Current enrollment 7230 Projected: Baseline 7613 383 5.3 Projected: Moderate 7785 555 7.7 Projected: Accelerated 8104 874 12.1 ELEMENTARY (Grades K-5) Current enrollment 3350 Projected: Baseline 3499 149 4.4 Projected: Moderate 3587 237 7.1 Projected: Accelerated 3720 370 11.0 MIDDLE (Grades 6-8) Current enrollment 1727 Projected: Baseline 1795 68 3.9 Projected: Moderate 1836 109 6.3 Projected: Accelerated 1911 184 10.6 HIGH (Grades 9-12) Current enrollment 2153 Projected: Baseline 2319 166 7.7 Projected: Moderate 2362 209 9.7 Projected: Accelerated 2474 321 14.9

  32. COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT: ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17 9000 8500 8000 Enrollment 7500 7000 6500 6000 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 School Year Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario March 1, 2007

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