The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Analyst Meeting for 2Q10 performance • Aug 20, 2010 � Mr. Vichien Usanachote (SEVP ‐ Refinery Business) � Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong (EVP ‐ Accounting &Finance) � Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP ‐ Marketing Business)
Contents Performance 2Q10 Oil Oil price and situation outlook i d it ti tl k Marketing business highlight g g g Other events and activities The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has p y y g g y been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly such projections valuations and statistical analyses are not to be among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein. 2
Performance Performance 2Q Q10 10
2Q10 performance integration Refinery & Marketing 2Q09 2Q09 2Q10 2Q10 2Q09 2Q09 2Q10 2Q10 5.16 2.88 2.88 2 23 2.23 1 68 1.68 Market GRM ($/Bbl) MKM ($/Bbl) 1 2 1 2 2.58 0.24 FO Premium($/Bbl) Accounting GIM($/Bbl) 1 2 T Total GRM lGRM C Contribution MKM ib i MKM 5.64 16.99 0.62 GRM Hedging ($/Bbl) 1.69 1 1 2 2 7.37 15.30 2.33 5.40 5.04 Inventory G (L) ($/Bbl) y ( ) ($/ ) 2Q09 2Q10 1 ‐ 0.98 2 1 2 4
2Q10 performance outperform the market � Change% � Change% � Change% � Change% 2Q10 2Q10 2Q09 2Q09 1H10 1H10 1H09 1H09 (Unit : Million Baht) Sale Revenue 32,970 26,852 + 22.8% 66,194 48,171 + 37.4% EBI TDA EBI TDA 1 163 1,163 4 021 4,021 -71.1% 71 1% 2 694 2,694 7 047 7,047 -61.8% 61 8% Refinery business 768 3,635 -78.9% 1,913 6,093 -68.6% Marketing business 395 386 + 2.3% 781 954 -18.1% Depreciation & Amortization (417) (251) (866) (468) Other FX and Impairment 89 173 237 (267) Financial Cost (220) (123) (419) (245) Pre-tax Profit 615 3,820 -83.9% 1,646 6,067 -72.9% Tax (177) (1,143) (457) (1,809) Net Profit 438 2,677 -83.6% 1,189 4,258 -72.1% EPS 0.37 2.39 1.02 3.80 Inventory Gain/(Loss) (233) 1,453 -116.0% (89) 1,274 -107.0% Adjusted EBI TDA 1,396 2,568 -45.6% 2,783 5,773 -51.8% Refinery business 1,001 2,182 -54.1% 2,002 4,819 -58.5% Marketing business 395 386 + 2.3% 781 954 -18.1% 5
Factors affect 2Q10 performance � Valued product proportion increased � Fuel oil premium on export market slowed from running as a Complex Refinery d down from the PQI project f h PQI j � 2Q10 MOP FO/DB � Gasoline crack spread still remain = ‐ 6.7 $/Bbl, � Gasoil crack spread increased premium 0.9 $/Bbl p Gasoil crack spread increased from 2Q09 since improving of � 2Q09 MOP FO/DB = ‐ 5.9 $/Bbl, oil demand in industrial and premium 8.6 $/Bbl transportation sectors f ll following the global i th l b l economic recovery � Hedging transaction limited due to market � Sales volume through Marketing condition 35% (2Q10) condition, 35% (2Q10) B Business increased i i d from 51% (2Q09) on � 65.2 KBD or 314 million liters/month (2Q10) production run � 63.6 KBD or 307 million liters/month (2Q09) 6
Singapore’s oil price movement USD/Bbl USD/Bbl Dubai D b i 95/D b i 95/Dubai 100 25 Outlook Outlook AVG.2Q10=78.04 AVG.1Q10=75.78 90 AVG.1Q10=12.52 3Q10/2Q10 3Q10/2Q10 80 20 70 AVG.2Q10=9.46 60 15 AVG.FY09=61.82 50 AVG.3Q09=68.02 AVG.FY09 =8.55 10 40 AVG.2Q09=59.22 30 AVG.1Q09=44.28 5 5 20 20 AVG.2Q09 =9.58 AVG.3Q09 =8.84 10 AVG.1Q09 =10.69 - - Y2010 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Y2009 USD/Bbl USD/Bbl GO/D b i GO/Dubai FO/Dubai 20 5 Outlook Outlook 3Q10/2Q10 AVG.1Q10=(3.04) 3Q10/2Q10 - 15 AVG.2Q10=(6.73) AVG.2Q10=11.29 AVG.1Q10=8.96 (5) 10 AVG.FY09 =(5.06) AVG.3Q09 =(3.11) (10) AVG.2Q09 =(5.95) AVG.1Q09 =(6.69) 5 (15) (15) AVG.FY09=7.24 AVG.1Q09=8.81 AVG.2Q09=7.07 AVG.3Q09=6.88 - (20) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 7
Refinery BU : 2010 base performance driven by PQI Oil hedging position for Y2010 Oil hedging position for Y2010 FO Premium Y2009 7 2009 2010 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Market GRM Y2009 $/Bbl) 6 FO Premium Y2010 Hedged volume 5 15.71 15.71 3.28 3.28 0.56 0.56 2.56 2.56 1.28 1.28 1.71 1.71 Base GRM ($ (Mbbl) (Mbbl) Market GRM Y2010 4 Production run 3 28.91 33.53 7.77 7.33 8.51 8.74 (MbbL) 2 Hedged 54% 10% 7% 35% 15% 20% 1 position (%) position (%) 0 Realization 167.7 0.7 0.7 4.56 N/A N/A 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (M$) 3% 3% 100 21% 17% 2009 Yield (%) 80 11% 12% (KBD) 2010 (Actual) LPG 2010 (Est.) Mogas Mogas 60 60 Production Y � Crude Intake 35% 50% JET 40 Diesel 34% 20 Fuel Oil 17% 17% 0 Hydroskimming PQI 2010 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 8
Refinery BU : performance is still in good shape 2Q10 2Q09 1H10 1H09 M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL Base GRM 1,287 5.40 1,147 4.26 2,708 5.47 2,849 5.37 • Market GRM 1,229 5.16 452 1.68 2,551 5.16 1,446 2.72 • FO Premium FO P i 58 58 0 24 0.24 695 695 2 58 2.58 157 157 0.32 0 32 1 403 1,403 2 64 2.64 GRM Hedging 148 0.62 1,517 5.64 173 0.35 2,824 5.32 Inventory Gain/(Loss) (233) (0.98) 1,435 5.33 (89) (0.18) 332 0.63 Write Down (LCM) - - 18 0.07 - - 942 1.77 Total GRM 1,202 5.04 4,117 15.30 2,792 5.64 6,947 13.08 Other Income 58 0.24 6 0.02 82 0.17 18 0.03 Operating Expenses (492) (2.06) (488) (1.81) (961) (1.94) (872) (1.64) EBITDA 768 3.22 3,635 13.51 1,913 3.87 6,093 11.47 Adjusted EBITDA 1,001 4.20 2,182 8.11 2,002 4.05 4,819 9.07 Key factors Key factors Crude Run (KBD) 80.5 83.9 83.4 82.7 Exchange rate ( ฿ /$) 32.53 35.23 32.78 35.45 DB ($/Bbl) 78.04 59.22 76.96 51.8 95/DB ($/Bbl) 95/DB ($/Bbl) 9 46 9.46 9 58 9.58 10 97 10.97 10.07 10 07 GO/DB ($/Bbl) 11.29 7.07 10.13 7.98 FO/DB ($/Bbl) -6.73 -5.95 -4.91 -6.39 FO premium ($/Bbl) 0.9 8.6 1.3 8.8 9
Marketing BU : potential to growth 3 rewards guaranteed our standard: • Trusted Brand from Readers’ Digest d d f d ’ Gasohol E20 Market share • Brand in Mind from BrandAge Mgz. market share through service ranked the 1 st • Golden Service Station Award from station increased the Department of Energy Business p gy with 56.7% at with 56.7% at from 13 5% (Dec 09) from 13.5% (Dec ‐ 09) Jun ‐ 10 to 14.3% (Jun ‐ 10) jumped from the 4 th to 3 rd 2Q10 Sales volume through service station growth by ‐ 3.0% (YoY) g y ( ) against market ‐ 5.3% Marketing strategy for 2010 g gy • Increasing of Gasohol E20 service station up to 300 stations before ending 2010 • Launching Super HSD (Euro IV standard) and distribute to g p ( ) almost of marketing network • Developing non ‐ oil business in service station 10
Marketing BU : MKM maintained but gain volume 2Q10 2Q09 1H10 1H09 ฿ /L ฿ /L ฿ /L ฿ /L M.Baht M.Baht M.Baht M.Baht Net Retail Margin 514 0.84 437 0.72 952 0.79 1,009 0.84 Net Industrial Margin 47 0.14 13 0.04 119 0.17 109 0.20 Total MKM Total MKM 561 561 0 59 0.59 450 450 0 49 0.49 1,071 1 071 0 56 0.56 1 118 1,118 0 64 0.64 2.88 $/bbl 2.23 $/bbl 2.72 $/bbl 2.89 $/bbl Other Income 215 0.23 254 0.28 414 0.21 448 0.26 Operating Expenses O ti E (381) (381) (0 40) (0.40) (318) (318) (0.35) (0 35) (704) (704) (0 36) (0.36) (612) (612) (0 35) (0.35) EBITDA 395 0.42 386 0.42 781 0.40 954 0.54 Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo o Retail 42.5 205 42.0 203 42.1 202 41.7 200 o Industrial 22.7 109 21.6 104 24.9 119 19.3 93 Total Sale Volume 65.2 314 63.6 307 67.0 322 61.0 292 11
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