The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Analyst Meeting for 3Q10 performance Nov - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Analyst Meeting for 3Q10 performance • Nov 10, 2010 � Mr. Vichien Usanachote (SEVP ‐ Refinery Business) � Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong (EVP ‐ Accounting &Finance) � Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP ‐ Marketing Business) Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP Marketing Business)

Contents Financial Aspect BCP Performance 3Q10 BBF Performance 3Q10 Solar Farm Project Progress BCP IFRS Alignment Oil price and situation outlook Marketing business highlight Marketing business highlight Other events and activities The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be l h d l h d d ff l d l h l d l l b viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein. 2

Financial Aspect Financial Aspect p BCP Performance BCP Performance 3Q Q10 10 • BBF Performance BBF Performance 3Q f Q10 10 • Solar Farm Project Progress • Solar Farm Project Progress • BCP IFRS Alignment • BCP IFRS Alignment •

3Q10 performance integration Refinery & Marketing 3Q09 3Q10 3Q09 3Q10 5.11 2.76 2.66 1.33 MKM ($/Bbl) Market GRM ($/Bbl) 1 2 1 2 1.99 0.17 FO Premium($/Bbl) Accounting GIM($/Bbl) Accounting GIM($/Bbl) 1 2 Total GRM MKM Contribution 15.28 5.20 0.17 Hedging ($/Bbl) 2.05 1 2 6.90 13.23 13 23 2.00 4.71 4.90 Inventory G (L) ($/Bbl) 3Q09 3Q10 ‐ 0.55 1 2 GIM : Gross Integrated Margin (GRM + MKM) 4

BCP 3Q10 performance still in line with our target 3Q10 3Q09 � Change% 9M10 9M09 � Change% Sale Revenue Sale Revenue 32,783 32,783 30,247 30,247 +8.4% +8.4% 98,977 98,977 78,418 78,418 +26.2% +26.2% EBITDA 1,146 3,286 -65.1% 3,839 10,333 -62.8% Refinery business 787 2,912 -73.0% 2,699 9,005 -70.0% Marketing business Marketing business 359 359 374 374 -4 0% -4.0% 1 140 1,140 1 328 1,328 -14 2% -14.2% Depreciation & Amortization (444) (235) (1,310) (703) Other FX and Impairment 86 106 323 (161) Financial Cost Financial Cost (222) (222) (105) (105) (641) (641) (350) (350) Pre-tax Profit 566 3,052 -81.5% 2,211 9,119 -75.8% Tax (96) (912) (553) (2,721) Net Profit 470 2,140 -78.0% 1,658 6,398 -74.1% EPS 0.40 1.83 1.42 5.63 3Q09 � Change% 3Q09 � Change% � Change% � Change% 3Q10 3Q10 9M10 9M10 9M09 9M09 Inventory Gain/(Loss) (139) 1,208 -111.5% (228) 2,482 -109.2% Adjusted EBITDA 1,285 2,078 -38.2% 4,067 7,851 -48.2% Refinery business 926 1,704 -45.7% 2,927 6,523 -55.1% Marketing business 359 374 -4.0% 1,140 1,328 -14.2% 5

BCP : Factors affect 3Q10 performance (YoY) � Fuel oil premium on � Valued product proportion increased export market slowed export market slowed f from running as a Complex Refinery i C l R fi down from the PQI project � 3Q10 MOP FO/DB � Gasoline crack spread still remain = ‐ 4.8 $/Bbl, 4 8 $/Bbl � Gasoil crack spread increased premium 1.2 $/Bbl from 3Q09 from improving of � 3Q09 MOP FO/DB = ‐ 3 1 $/Bbl = 3.1 $/Bbl, oil demand in industrial and oil demand in industrial and premium 6.2 $/Bbl transportation sectors following the global economic recovery economic recovery � Hedging transaction � Hedging transaction limited due to market � Sales volume through Marketing condition, 21% (3Q10) Business increased incessantly from 50% (3Q09) on from 50% (3Q09) on � 66.0 KBD or 322 million liters/month (3Q10) production run � 60.6 KBD or 295 million liters/month (3Q09) � Less impact from FX fluctuation due to � Less impact from FX fluctuation due to natural hedging 6

Less impact from FX fluctuation due to natural hedging Unit : Million USD Unit : Million USD / Month BALANCE SHEET PROFIT & LOSS FX Risk Management ASSETS � Trade AR Sales Revenue 1. Crude Sell/Buy Hedging 40 270 � Inventory COGS (WA) 2. Cross Currency Swap 255 425 LIABILITIES LIABILITIES � Trade AP GRM 3. FX GRM Hedging 225 15 NOTE Assumption Sale 100 KBD 1. Crude Sell/Buy Hedging : to alleviate gain/loss affected from FX timing Avg. selling price 90 USD/Bbl mismatch, policy at 85% of crude purchase. mismatch, policy at 85% of crude purchase. Avg. crude price 85 USD/Bbl 2. Cross Currency Swap (CCS) : to naturally hedge with oil inventory by having Base GRM 5 USD/Bbl dollar equivalent loan for the amount of 200 MUSD. Crude purchase vol. 3 MBbl Inventory Level 5 MBbl 3. FX GRM Hedging : to maximize profit in Baht term, target at 60% of GRM in USD term 7

Singapore’s oil price movement USD/Bbl USD/Bbl USD/Bbl Dubai 95/Dubai 100 25 90 AVG.1Q10=75.78 AVG.2Q10=78.04 AVG.1Q10=12.52 AVG.3Q10=73.97 80 20 Outlook 70 4Q10/3Q10 AVG.2Q10=9.46 60 15 AVG.FY09=61.82 AVG.3Q10=8.59 50 AVG.3Q09=68.02 Outlook AVG.FY09 =8.55 40 10 4Q10/3Q10 Q / Q AVG.2Q09=59.22 30 AVG.1Q09=44.28 20 5 10 AVG.2Q09 =9.58 AVG.3Q09 =8.84 AVG.1Q09 =10.69 - - J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Y2010 Y2009 USD/Bbl USD/Bbl GO/Dubai FO/Dubai 20 5 Outlook Outlook AVG.1Q10=(3.04) 4Q10/3Q10 4Q10/3Q10 AVG.3Q10=(4.82) AVG.3Q10=12.39 15 - AVG.2Q10=(6.73) AVG.2Q10=11.29 AVG.1Q10=8.96 (5) 10 AVG.FY09 =(5.06) AVG.3Q09 =(3.11) (10) AVG.2Q09 =(5.95) AVG.1Q09 =(6.69) 5 AVG.FY09=7.24 ( (15) ) AVG.1Q09=8.81 AVG.2Q09=7.07 AVG.3Q09=6.88 - (20) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 8

Refinery BU : 2010 base performance driven by PQI Oil hedging position for Y2010 FO Premium Y2009 7 2009 2010 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Market GRM Y2009 bl) 6 6 FO Premium Y2010 FO P i Y2010 se GRM ($/B Hedged volume 15.71 6.11 0.56 2.56 1.66 1.71 5 (Mbbl) Market GRM Y2010 4 Production run 28.91 32.35 7.77 7.33 8.09 8.74 3 (MbbL) Bas 2 Hedged 54% 19% 7% 35% 21% 20% position (%) 1 0 Realization 167.7 7.0 0.7 4.6 1.7 N/A 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (M$) (M$) 100 3% 2009 2009 19% 19% 17% 17% 18% 18% 22% 22% on Yield (%) 80 ake (KBD) 2010 (Actual) 10% 11% 12% LPG 14% t Yield (%) 2010 (Est.) MOGAS 60 JET 35% 51% 51% Productio 48% 48% Product Crude Int Diesel 40 50% Fuel oil 20 34% 20% 19% 14% 0 Simple Complex Complex Complex Hydro ‐ Skimming Hydro ‐ cracking Hydro ‐ cracking Hydro ‐ cracking 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 9

Refinery BU : performance is still in good shape 3Q10 3Q09 9M10 9M09 M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL Base GRM 1,344 5.28 851 3.32 4,050 5.38 3,700 4.70 • Market GRM 1,300 5.11 342 1.33 3,851 5.11 1,788 2.27 • FO Premium 44 0.17 509 1.99 201 0.27 1,912 2.43 Hedging 43 0.17 1,332 5.20 217 0.29 4,156 5.28 Inventory Gain/(Loss) Inventory Gain/(Loss) (139) (139) (0 55) (0.55) 1,208 1 208 4 71 4.71 (228) (228) (0.30) (0 30) 1,540 1 540 1 96 1.96 Write Down (LCM) - - - - - - 942 1.20 Total GRM 1,248 4.90 3,391 13.23 4,039 5.37 10,338 13.12 Other Income Oth I 41 41 0 16 0.16 35 35 0 14 0.14 123 123 0 16 0.16 53 53 0 07 0.07 Operating Expenses (502) (1.97) (514) (2.01) (1,463) (1.94) (1,386) (1.76) EBITDA 787 3.09 2,912 11.36 2,699 3.59 9,005 11.43 Adjusted EBITDA 926 3.64 1,704 6.65 2,927 3.89 6,523 8.27 9M10 9M09 3Q10 3Q09 Key factors Crude Run (KBD) 88.0 81.7 84.9 82.4 Exchange rate ( ฿ /$) 31.78 34.10 32.45 35.00 DB ($/Bbl) 73.97 68.02 75.95 57.26 95/DB ($/Bbl) 95/DB ($/Bbl) 8.59 8 59 8 84 8.84 10.18 10 18 9 66 9.66 GO/DB ($/Bbl) 12.39 6.88 10.87 7.61 FO/DB ($/Bbl) (4.82) (3.11) (4.84) (5.25) 10 FO premium ($/Bbl) 1.17 6.20 1.5 7.9

Marketing BU : performance aligned with industry’s 3Q10 3Q09 9M10 9M09 ฿ /L ฿ /L ฿ /L ฿ /L M.Baht M.Baht M.Baht M.Baht Net Retail Margin 431 0.73 456 0.82 1,383 0.77 1,465 0.83 Net Industrial Margin Net Industrial Margin 82 82 0.22 0.22 67 67 0.20 0.20 201 201 0.18 0.18 176 176 0.20 0.20 Total MKM 513 0.53 523 0.59 1,584 0.55 1,641 0.62 2.66 $/bbl 2.76 $/bbl 2.82 $/bbl 2.70 $/bbl Other Income 213 0.22 205 0.23 627 0.22 653 0.25 Operating Expenses (367) (0.38) (354) (0.40) (1,071) (0.37) (966) (0.37) EBITDA 359 0.37 374 0.42 1,140 0.40 1,328 0.50 3Q10 3Q09 9M10 9M09 Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo o Retail 40.4 197 38.1 185 41.5 200 40.4 195 o Industrial 25.6 125 22.5 110 25.2 121 20.4 98 11 Total Sale Volume 66.0 322 60.6 295 66.7 321 60.8 293