Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions Prof Dr Pavel Kabat IIASA Director/CEO
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
FOOD • 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO) • By 2030, the world’s population will have increased by one billion (IIASA) • Agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
WATER • 884 million people have inadequate access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF) • Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water) • Hydropower supplies about 20% of the world’s electricity (ICOLD)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
ENERGY • 2.5 billion people are without access to modern energy (IIASA/GEA) • World primary energy demand expected to increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA) • Energy production and consumption contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
CLIMATE CHANGE • Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC) • Average temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 ° C by 2100 (IPCC) • 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
POVERTY & EQUITY • Over 24,000 children die each day due to poverty (UNICEF) • 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day (World Bank) • “Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a consequence of it.” (FAO)
INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Poverty Water & Equity
IIASA’S APPROACH
RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES • Integrated • Interdisciplinary • International = Systems • Independent Analysis • Solution-oriented • Long term • Trade offs
ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: • PAST SUCCESSES • NEW RESEARCH • Dynamic Systems • Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems • Multi-criteria decision analysis • Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions • Adaptive dynamics theory • Integrated Modeling and • Game theory Decision Support • Agent-based modeling • Advanced Systems • Stochastic optimization Analysis Forum
IIASA helps to put the puzzle together
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Tjalling Koopmans and Professor Leonid Kantorovich Nobel Prize in Economics (1975)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize for Chemistry (1995)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Thomas C. Schelling Nobel Prize for Economics (2005)
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Nobel Peace Prize (2007)
YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM
INTERDISCIPLINARY Natural Scientists 28% & Engineers 35% Social Scientists Mathematicians 37% and others
INTERNATIONAL • PARTNERS • IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries
IIASA’S MEMBER COUNTRIES
HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
RESEARCH STRATEGY
INTEGRATION: AREAS & PROGRAMS Research Programs Energy & Food & Poverty & Climate Water Equity Change Problem-oriented Energy Programs Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Ecosystems Services and Management Water Evolution and Ecology Risk, Policy & Vulnerability Drivers of Global World Population Transformations Transitions to New Technologies Policy and Advanced Systems Analysis Systems Analysis Policy & Governance
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Energy and Climate Change Highly Published
Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point “Single minded” approaches for multiple challenges All Three Objectives Only Energy Only Pollution Only Climate Security
GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO 2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target Global temperature 1900-2070 Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO 2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH 4 and black carbon CO 2 + Near-term measures These 16 measures are ‒ win (for air quality), ‒ win (for near-term climate change) Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189 ‒ win (for economic development). http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct
World – Historic Primary Energy Transitions (changeover time Δ t: 80-130 years) Begin of energy policy Focus: Δ t’s >2000 yrs 100 100 modern fuels: modern fuels: oil, gas, oil, gas, traditional biomass traditional biomass electricity electricity ∆ t -130 yrs 75 75 Percent in Primary Energy Percent in Primary Energy ∆ t -80 yrs 50 50 coal coal 25 25 ∆ t +130 yrs ∆ t +90 yrs 0 0 1850 1850 1875 1875 1900 1900 1925 1925 1950 1950 1975 1975 2000 2000 2025 2025 Source: GEA KM24, 2012
The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE: BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES RAINS MESSAGE helps has helped cut over 80 sulfur countries dioxide with energy planning 2000 2010 1976 1981 1994
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org • Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs and LAs and >200 Anonymous Reviewers • Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors is complete - ongoing responses and revisions.
Sponsoring Organizations International Organizations Governments/Agencies GEF Austria - multi-year IIASA European Union UNDESA Germany UNDP Italy UNEP Norway UNIDO Sweden - multi-year ESMAP (World Bank) USA (EPA, DoE) Industry Foundations First Solar UN Foundation Petrobras Climate Works Foundation WBCSD Global Environment & Technology Foundation WEC 39
Policy Tools for Decision Making More preferable, but more difficult Worst Best +80% -80% Climate Change Environment 0% 100% Pollution/Health High Low 100% 0% Resilience Energy Security Dependence Low High X trill Y trill System Costs Economy 40
GEA Database www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/geadb 41 Source: GEA
Mapping Energy Access 42 Source: GEA
Global Primary Energy Efficiency 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas 1000 Oil Coal Biomass 800 Microchip Commercial aviation Nuclear energy 600 EJ Renewables Nuclear Television 400 Vacuum Gas tube Gasoline engine Electric Steam motor Oil engine 200 Coal Biomass 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA
Global Primary Energy Efficiency 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas 1000 Oil Coal Biomass 800 Microchip Commercial aviation Nuclear energy 600 EJ Renewables Nuclear Television 400 Vacuum Gas tube Gasoline engine Electric Steam motor Oil engine 200 Coal Biomass 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA
Final Energy Transformations 100% Grids & onsite generation (fossil&bio-gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) 80% 60% Liquids (oil products, biofuels, 40% other liquids) GEA-Efficiency 20% Solids (coal, biomass) GEA-Supply 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: GEA
Energy Innovation and Investments Worldwide, Billion $/year Innovation Market (RD&D) formation Diffusion End ‐ use & efficiency >>8 5 300 ‐ 3500 >12 >>2 200 ‐ 550 Fossil fuel supply >10 0 3 ‐ 8 Nuclear Renewables >12 ≈ 20 >20 Electricity (GEN + T&D) >>1 ≈ 100 450 ‐ 520 >>4 <15 n.a. Other* and unspecified >50 <150 1000 ‐ 5000 Total Source: GEA
Investment Portfolio – China 2010 & 2050 No Sustainability Policies ($370 billion) Today ($185 billion) Other conversion Oil Other Oil Gas conversion Renewable Coal Electricity Nuclear Gas Renewable Electricity Fossil Electricity Electricity Transmission Coal Fossil Electricity Nuclear Electricity Transmission 2005-2010 2050 Source: GEA
Investment Portfolio – China 2010 & 2050 GEA-Efficiency ($407 billion) No Sustainability Policies ($370 billion) Other Today conversion CCS ($185 billion) Other conversion Oil Renewable Other Electricity Oil Gas conversion Renewable Coal Electricity Fossil Electricity Nuclear Gas Efficiency Renewable (marginal) Electricity Fossil Electricity Electricity Electricity Transmission Transmission Coal Fossil Electricity Nuclear Electricity Transmission Coal Gas 2005-2010 Oil 2050 2050 48 Source: GEA
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