Influenza risk in a warming climate Zhaohua Wu Department of Earth, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Influenza risk in a warming climate Zhaohua Wu Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, & Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA Qi Liu 1,2 , Zhe-Min Tan 2 , Jie Sun 1 , Yayi Hou 2 , Congbin Fu 2 1. Florida State University 2. Nanjing University

Flu Epidemic Potentially Flu Virus Infect-able Infected Patients

Flu Epidemic Potentially Flu Virus Infect-able Favorable environment for virus survival Population Density/Distance Infected Patients

Flu Epidemic Potentially Flu Virus Infect-able Favorable environment for virus survival Population Density/Distance Previous findings: Survival rate high in cold and dry environment Infected Patients

Flu Epidemic Potentially Flu Virus Infect-able Favorable environment for virus survival Population Density/Distance Previous findings: Personal strength of Survival rate high in cold immune system and dry environment Infected Our Findings: Patients Rapid Weather Variability plays major role

COVID-19 Deaths in Age Groups Hospitalized patients (by April 27, 2020) Massachusetts, USA Number of Deaths (by April 27, 2020) Italy Massachusetts, USA

COVID-19 Deaths in Age Groups Hospitalized patients (by April 27, 2020) Massachusetts, USA Implying that the strength of the immune system of a person is indeed closely tied to the rate of infection Number of Deaths (by April 27, 2020) and severity of illness. Italy Massachusetts, USA

Motivations “ 以秋庚辛中于邪者为肺风。” “ 肺风之状，多汗恶风，色皏 然白，时咳短气，昼日则差， 暮则甚，诊在眉上，其色白。” “ In later autumn or early winter, the infected ‘feng’ is the ‘feng’ of lung. ” “ Symptoms of the ‘feng’ of lung includes: severe sweating, pale face, coughing, short breathing ， light symptoms in daytime, heavy symptoms in night 。”

Motivations The weather, now warm, now cold, Makes it harder than ever to keep fit! 1. Ancient medical observations and literature statements were a sort of statistical summary of how weather impact diseases. 2. There are also plenty of modern medical evidence showing that the rapid weather fluctuation weakens human immune system.

Index of Rapid Weather Variability The total number of consecutive-day surface air temperature differences larger than 3 K over a three-week period ending.

2017-2018 Flu Season Peak flu intensity Autumn rapid weather variability Later Winter rapid weather variability

2017-2018 Flu Season Peak flu intensity The spatial distribution of RWV in October and November, but not in winter is highly consistent with that of peak flu intensity. Autumn rapid weather variability Later Winter rapid weather variability

Long-term Relation between Flu and RWV USA China France Italy

Long-term Relation between Flu and RWV USA China The RWV in October and November could potentially be used as early indicators of a severe flu season, giving health professionals more time to prepare and minimize outbreaks. France Italy

Climate Model Projected RWV Changes 2020-2049 minus 1970-1999 2070-2099 minus 1970-1999

Climate Model Projected RWV Changes 2020-2049 minus 1970-1999 2070-2099 minus 1970-1999 CMIP5 simulations forced by RCP8.5 further indicate an increase in RWV, resulting in a modelled increase in infections in China, Europe and the populous north-eastern USA by up to 50%. The predictions were less severe in the RCP4.5 scenario, estimating increases of up to 30%.

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