ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe) A risk assessment of the impact of climate change on human health & well-being, including potential impact upon animals Prof. Matthew Baylis 1 , Dr. K. Marie M c Intyre 1 , Dr. Cyril Caminade 2 , Dr. Andy Morse 2 1 Liverpool University Climate & Infectious Diseases of Animals (LUCINDA) research group, School of Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool 2 Department of Geography, University of Liverpool
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages What ERA-EnvHealth Network wanted - A better understanding of how global warming climatic scenarios for west European regions will translate over the next few decades into: (i) direct impacts on soil-water ecosystems (ii) the indirect effects this will have on human health (iii) potential for adaptation or mitigation with respect to land use and water resources Three sub-themes - Anthropogenic contaminants, pathogens, toxins in soil-water Health impact estimation of global warming Methodological improvements for understanding and modelling health impacts as a result of changes in soil-water ecosystems
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages ENHanCE project – ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe How realistic is the threat to human health from climate change’s future effects on infectious diseases? Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few? Will there be a net increase or decrease in certain disease burdens? Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few? Is it possible that the diseases ‘that matter most’ are the least likely to respond to climate change?
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages WP 1. Identification of pathogens Who’s included in western Europe?
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages What pathogens affect or threaten us? ENHanCEd EID Pathogen Database Our framework Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What are their known climate drivers? How will climate change? Literature search Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? What might we try to do about it? Risk assessment Participatory Integrated Assessment WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages WP1. Identification of all pathogens of Work package humans and animals that occur in western Europe and have known climatic structure or environmental drivers WP2. A Decision Support System for WP3. Projected climate and identifying short-listed pathogens of highest environmental change in the region impact on human health and well-being WP4. Risk assessment and modelling of the response of high impact diseases to future climate change WP5. Expert opinion of the societal response to changing disease risk from climate and environmental change: Participatory Integrated Assessment WP6. Integrated Assessment Scenarios of our future health and well-being in Europe WP7. Project Communication WP8. Project Management
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages The bottom-up approach a b c d Most previous assessments have been top-down, starting a e (and often ending) with the premise that a few key vector- f borne pathogens of (usually) humans (malaria, dengue, g yellow fever) need urgent consideration h i Start by giving equal weight to all j pathogens, then look for climate drivers k l k m Balanced approach; the highest-impact pathogens may n be largely insensitive to climate change o
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages (Photo: Nicolai V. Meyling) (Photo: Nicolai V. Meyling) (Photo: Nicolai V. Meyling) WP1. Identification of all pathogens of humans and animals
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages division no_entities Bacteria 122824 Environmental samples 23000 Invertebrates 114239 Mammals 3804 Phages 1745 Plants 162556 Primates 663 Rodents 2617 Synthetic 4505 Unassigned 21 Vertebrates 37795 Viruses 44714 518483
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages ftp GUI GUI 1 st backend ENHanCEd EID 2 nd backend ENHanCEd EID ENHanCEd EID NCBI (removal of plants, phages etc) (ID potentially pathogenic entities) 518483 entities Removing: Env. Samples, Phages, Plants, Synthetic, Unassigned = 326656 entities Pathogenic, potentially pathogenic, non-pathogenic, free-living or commensal = ?? entities
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages ENHanCEd Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) database Sql Server 2005 ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5 Web-based multi-user Virtual Earth Environment Confluence (web application) Telerik, yFiles Matlab
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages References Creator Taxonomy Trees Updater Update/Creation Data/Time Links Items Rating Comment s Hosts Pathogens Points Polygon Environments Climate Time Mechanical Exit Material Entry Routes Variables Intervals Vectors How pathogens are transmitted When and where host, vector, pathogen & climate interactions occur Critical (min, max) boundaries & optimum climate values Attach ‘evidence’ and rate items Enable sophisticated and efficient queries
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages ‘Squares’
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages WP2: Decision support system for short-listing pathogens
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages WP2: Decision support system for short-listing pathogens Importance in terms of human health impact, animal health and welfare, and economic impact across the target region Humans - for instance number of people affected, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Animals - for instance economic cost, welfare production losses, costs of prevention Stakeholders Defra, HPA and/or DoH, NHS, NFU, NERC, Veterinary Medicines Directorate, MOD FAO, WHO, OIE
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages Linking climate and EID data Temperature Rainfall Total summer rainfall Maximum summer temperature Total winter rainfall Minimum summer temperature Total annual rainfall Mean summer temperature Summer rainy days Maximum winter temperature Winter rainy days Minimum winter temperature Seq. days no rain Seq. days rain Mean winter temperature Days of temperature under 0 o C Wind speed Days of temperature over 30 o C Maximum wind speed Mean annual temperature Mean wind speed Annual temperature variation Seasonality Day-degrees Known seasonality Plots of seasonal patterns Humidity Minimum relative humidity
ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages Pathogen survival outside host Vector biting rate Pathogen rate of development outside host Vector survival rate Pathogen development rate in host
Acknowledgements Prof. Malcolm Bennett Dr. Helen Clough Dr. Christian Setzkorn Prof. Matthew Baylis Dr. Jenny Newman Mrs. Susan Baker Prof. Pim Martens Dr. Andy Morse Department of Geography Dr. Maud Huynens Dr. Cyril Caminade Ms. Su-Mia Akin Prof. Ed Maltby Dr. John R. Stephenson Mr. Tom West Dr. Steve Leach Mr. Jolyon Medlock Dr. Serge Morand Ms. Agnes Waret Dr. Peter Stevenson
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