Indonesia NDC roadmap on AFOLU and Energy sector Rizaldi Boer and Retno Gumilang Dewi Email: rizaldiboer@gmail.com; ccrom_rizaldi@apps.ipb.ac.id Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific IPB University; Centre on Research for Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology
INTRODUCTION 3,500 Forestry Agriculture IPPU Excluding Non ‐ AFOLU 1000 Waste Energy 1.0 Net Emission (Mt CO2e) 3,000 900 Emission (Mton CO2e) 0.9 2,500 800 0.8 ) e 700 0.7 2 2,000 O C 600 0.6 t (G 500 0.5 1,500 n issio 400 0.4 1,000 m 300 0.3 Emission Reduction Target by 2030 E t 200 e 0.2 500 N 100 0.1 ‐ 0 0.0 BAU BAU CM1 CM2 ‐ 100 ‐ 0.1 Energy 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 38% 2010 2030 Waste NDC BaU NDC CM1 NDC CM2 DD IPPU Agriculture 59% LUCF Critically insufficient NDC 1.31% 0.34% Highly insufficient 1.10% Insufficient 2 ° C compatible 1.5 ° C Paris Agreement compatible 2
PROGRESS 2500 The increase of emission in 2014 and 2015 mainly due to 2000 the increase of emission from FOLU due to peat fire Emission (Mton CO2e) 1500 In the period of 2010 ‐ 2016, by excluding FOLU, the cumulative 1000 ER reached 555 Mt CO2e (equivalent to reduction of 500 about 9.4% from BAU), while by including FOLU, it decreased to 0 269 Mt CO2e (equivalent to BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual reduction of about 2.4% from 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BAU) FOLU Agriculture Waste IPPU Energy Source: MoEF, 2018
Reducing Deforestation (2018 ‐ 2030) Natural Forest in Concession areas 2017 16000 BAU=15.53 Mha HTI = 2.92 Mha 14000 HGU = 1.44 Mha Total Deforestasi 2013-2030 (000 ha) PIAPS = 6.14 Mha 12000 Total = 10.50 Mha 10000 Protection = 5.85 Mha (PP46/2016) 8000 CM1=7.26 Mha Deforestation Quota 6000 • 3.96 Mha to CM1 0.84 Mha to CM2 • CM1=4.15 Mha 4000 CM1=3,30 Mha (2013 ‐ 2017) 2000 Controlling the conversion of natural 0 forest in concession areas with incentive system (PERMEN LHK 70/2017) 2 Main Strategies Managing Illegal Driver Permanent moratorium for the of deforestation (Social issuance of new permit in primary Based on MOEF (2019) Forestry: PERMEN LHK forest and peatland outside the 83/2016 and TORA concession: INPRES 5/2019
Scenario to meet the NDC Target Jenis Konsesi Optimum Scenario Progressive Scenario % ha % Ha Social Forestry 89.4 5,490,434 89.4 5,490,434 HTI 61.0 1,779,351 80.5 2,349,097 Agriculture Plantation 62.1 896,232 81.0 1,169,772 Total Conservation 8,166,017 9,009,303 Total Convertible in concession 2,334,526 1,491,240 Cap outside concession (Unconditional target) 1.601,474 2,333,760 Deep Decarbonization (Cap outside concession) CM2 ‐ 1,489,526 ‐ 646,240 (Conditional Target) Forest in concession: 10.5 Mha ‐ Timber Plantation = 2.92 Mha; Agriculture Plantation = 1.44 Mha; Social Forestry = 6.14 Mha; Side aside for protection based on Ecosystem Services 5.85 Mha
Bio ‐ geophysical Index (Minister Regulation 70/2017) Historical Current Percent Forest Cover Deforestati 0 1:<10 2: 10 ‐ 20 3: 20 ‐ 30 4: 30 ‐ 50 5: 50 ‐ 80 6: >80 1: High 0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3: Medium 0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5: Low 0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Extremely High Very high High Quite high Medium Quite Low Low Very low Extremely Low No Forest
IBGF ‐ Central Kalimantan 140,000 1,200,000 131,178 120,000 1,000,000 100,000 91,216 800,000 75,019 80,000 71,964 Type A1, A2, 600,000 B1, B2 60,000 49,818 41,927 400,000 35,934 40,000 200,000 20,000 14,275 14,269 Type C4 6,627 2,580 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Type A3, B3 U N IT XXXII U N IT XXXIII U N IT I U N IT II U N IT III U N IT VI U N IT VII U N IT VIII U N IT X U N IT XI U N IT XII U N IT XIII U N IT XVI U N IT XVII U N IT XVIII U N IT XXI U n it XXII, U nit XX VI U N IT XXIII U N IT XXIX U N IT XXVII U N IT XXVIII U N IT XXXI U N IT IV U N IT IX U N IT V U N IT XIV U N IT XIX U N IT XV U N IT XX U N IT XXIV U N IT XXV U N IT XXX KPHL KPHP Tinggi Rendah Minister Regulation No. 6/2010: Policies that support the development of units mandated to Forested land in FMU exposed to improve management of forests in protection and production forests Instituional typology Use high risk of deforestation as guide for prioritizing the area for the implementation of Social Forestry, and Land Rehabilitation)
Ta Target: Land Land Rehabi habilitati tion on and and Pe Peat Manag Managem emen ent Kumulative Actions Skenario (2014 ‐ 2030) Peat restoration BAU ‐ (x1000 ha) 1 CM1 1,396 CM2 2,908 Aktual 2 ‐ Improve water BAU ‐ management CM1 1,656 (x1000 ha) CM2 1,728 Aktual 2 ‐ 1 ‐ Successful rate 90% Source: MoEF, 2018 Presidential Regulation No. 57/2016 as revision to Presidential Regulation No. 71/2014: apply more rigid rules in using peat land and mandating government at all levels, to develop protection and management of peat land in coordinated ways and also to restore/rehabilitate the degraded peat land
Controlling Peat Fire Extensive areas of deforested and • Presidential Instruction No. 11/2015: Policies drained peatlands are not cultivated and that mandate all level of governments to develop have extreme fire risk ~ >2 Mha land and forest fire management system at their jurisdiction and sanction for business players who do not implement the fire management in the area under their authority • With this policy, many of concession have been brought into the court and most cases the Government win the case. The penalty fund is Drained Peatland is very vulnerable to fires planned to be used for financing mitigation activities (also incentive ~ Presidential Regulation 47/2017 Environmental Economic Instrument EEI Regulate incentive, disincentive and financial support for environmental protection and management)
Sus Sustain ainable ble Fo Fore rest st Ma Managemen nagement (SF (SFM) in in Production oduction Fo Fore rest st Actions Scenarios Cumulative • Implementation of RIL (Reduce Impact Logging, (2013 ‐ RIL) and ENR ( Enhanced Natural Regeneration) • Minister Regulation No. 30/2016 on evaluation 2030) of performance of forest management Rate BAU 18.259 Policies that mandate all forest concession CM1 31.099 (x1000 ha) holders to have forest sustainable management CM2 31.099 certification. To ensure all concessions holders Aktual 2 apply sustainable management practices ‐ Source: MoEF, 2018 Crown Cover Conservation Non ‐ FMU FMU APL Total <30% 17,589 30,216 184,316 149,045 381,166 30% ‐ 70% 422,715 383,269 2,285,067 1,822,375 4,913,425 >70% 16,130,479 5,806,979 56,193,743 4,931,265 83,062,465 Total 16,570,783 6,220,464 58,663,126 6,902,684 88,357,057
Conclusion and Remark • Mainstreaming the NDC in the process of revision of spatial plan and developing medium and long ‐ term development plan • Enhancing the participation of non ‐ Party Actors (Private sectors) with incentive system • Strengthening and acceleration of establishment Forest Management Unit in high risk area and synchronization of program across directorate supporting the social forestry programs and TORA • Facilitating the adoption of farming system adapted to peat ecosystem and access to market • Increasing access to fund for implementing climate actions (Public Service Agency for Environmental Fund)
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES & DEVELOPMENT TRENDS: ENERGY Economic Growth Means Greater Access BaU vs Miigation for Energy, considering the use of baseline 4.00 technologies, this could lead to a climb in future energy related emissions. 3.50 Fast ‐ growing economy – rapidly increasing 3.00 and fast ‐ changing demand for energy. 2.50 National Energy Policy: Security & 2.00 Independences ₋ Moving away from Oil, reducing Oil to 1.50 25% of total supply in 2025 1.00 ₋ Utilization of strategic assets (Coal and 0.50 Natural Gas) - ₋ Energy efficiency improvements BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation ₋ New Energy (nuclear, CBM, shale ‐ gas) Pop GDP/Cap Prim. Energy/cap Final Energy/cap Electricity/cap GHG/cap and Renewable energies. Distribution challenge for a nation of 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 thousands island Main driver of GHG emissions over the past decade has been economic activity, which increased at a rate of 5% to 6% per year, in which it will keep 5.5% (2020 to 2030) Decreasing energy use per GDP in mitigation scenario (compared to BaU) indicate improvement of efficiency Carbon intensity is still increasing indicate more fossil energy use
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