INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and ITs 2050 VISION CURRENT - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT’s 2050 VISION

CURRENT CONDITIONS At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows: • There are great potential energy sources • Society's access to energy is still limited • Oil fuel consumption is 63% of total energy consumption • Gas and coal prices are higher on the export market than on the domestic market, Domestic consumers have low purchasing power. • The energy industry is not optimal – Limited energy infrastructure (Appendixes G1 s/d G4, pages 33-36) – Energy prices (such as for fuel, gas for fertilizer factories and new/ renewable energies) that are not commensurate with their economic value (Appendix H, page 40) – Inefficient energy utilization (Appendix I, page 41)

EXPECTED CONDITIONS • Rational Energy prices • Society’s access to energy • Better economic conditions will increase society’s purchasing power • Security of energy supply (Balanced Energy Mix)

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2005 Household&Comercial by Sector LPG 6% Rumah BBM Gas Kota Tangga dan 63% 0% Komersial 12 Juta KL 24% Industri Batubara 41% 0% Listrik 31% Transport LPG 0% Gas Kota Transportasi 0% 35% Listrik Batubara 0% 0% By Fuel Type BBM 26 Juta KL 100% LPG 1,1 Juta Ton 500 BSCF 2% Gas Kota 8% Batubara Industry 11% 13 Juta Ton Batubara 27% Gas Kota 19% Listrik 12% LPG BBM 100 TWh 1% 67% Listrik 11% 54 Juta KL BBM 42%

Trend of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix Geothermal 100% 80% Oil 60% Persen 40% Natural Gas 20% Coal Renewable Hydropower 0% 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 PLTA Biofuel Batubara EBT Lainnya Gas Bumi Minyak Bumi Panas Bumi

CO 2 Emission from Energy Utilization 300 Other Sector Transport 250 Household Industry 200 Million Ton PowerPlant 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

2005 CO 2 Emission by Sources Household 10% Industry 37% Transport 23% PowerPlant 26% Other Sector 4%

NATIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALS 2004 CAD/PROD RATIO TYPES OF FOSSIL- PRODUCTION (without RESERVES BASED ENERGY RESOURCES exploration) (per annum) (Proven + Possible) Years Oil 86.9 billion 9 billion barrels 500 million 18 barrels barrels Gas 384.7 TSCF 182 TSCF 3.0 TSCF 61 Coal 57 billion tons 19.3 billion tons 130 million 147 barrels NON-FOSSIL RESOURCES INSTALLED EQUAL TO USAGE ENERGY CAPACITY Hydroelectric 845.00 million 75.67 GW 6,851.00 GWh 4,200.00 MW power BOE Geothermal power 219.00 million 27.00 GW 2,593.50 GWh 800.00 MW BOE Mini/Micro hydro 458.75 MW 458.75 MW 84.00 MW Biomass 49.81 GW 302.40 MW 4.80 kWh/m 2 / day Solar energy 8.00 MW 9.29 GW Wind power 0.50 MW 24.112 Tons* e.q. Uranium (Nuclear) 3 GW for 11 years * Only in the Kalan region – West Kalimantan

RESERVES AND NETWORKS OF GAS PIPELINES THAILAND LAOS Manila Bangkok CAMBODIA Philipines Ban Mabtapud Existing South Phnom VIETNAM Penh Pipeline China Ho Chi Minh City Planned Sea Pipeline Erawan Khanon Songkhla Bangkot Lawit 3,756 Jerneh Kota Guntong Kinibalu BRUNEI Banda Aceh Penang NatunaAlpha W est Bandara Seri Lhokseumawe Kerteh WEST Duyong Natuna Mogpu Begawan 0,720 MALAYSI A Kuala e r e Bintul o n Port Klang Lumpur p s i l u Medan a a k 51,627 EAST g G n 34,021 Port n u Pacific Ocean MALAYSIA i r S T Dickson Manado Dumai SINGAPORE Kuchin Ternate HALMAHERA g Bintan Batam 18,520 Duri 11,516 Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal S Attaka U Samarinda M KALIMANTAN Tunu Padang A Bekapai Sorong T Balikpapan R 3,894 Jambi A SULAWESI Jayapur 5,855 a Grissik Banjarmasin Palembang IRIAN JAYA SERAM BURU 5,529 Ujung Pandang TOTAL RESERVES Ardjuna Fields 0,11 3,854 I N D O N E S I A 2P : 142.462 BSCF MADURA Jakarta Semarang Cirebon Bangkalan Pagerungan J A V A Surabaya BALI SUMBAWA FLORES Merauke LOMBOK Massela Indian Ocean 3,00 TIMOR SUMBA AUSTRALIA GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF)

REFINERIES AND Fuel TRANSPORTATION MODE THAILAND LAOS Manila Transit Terminal Bangkok CAMBODIA Philipines Pipeline Distribution Ban Mabtapud South Phnom VIETNAM Penh Tanker China Ho Chi Minh City Oil Refinery Sea Erawan Khanon Songkhla Bangkot Lawit Jerneh Kota Guntong Kinibalu BRUNEI Banda Aceh Penang NatunaAlpha W est P. Brandan: 5 Bandara Seri Lhokseumawe Kerteh WEST Duyong Natuna MBOPD Mogpu Begawan MALAYSI A Kuala Bintul Port Klang Lumpur u Medan EAST Port Pacific Ocean MALAYSIA Dickson Manado Dumai SINGAPORE Kuchin Dumai : 120 Ternate HALMAHERA g Bintan Batam MBOPD Duri Bontan g S Attaka U Samarinda M KALIMANTAN Tunu Sorong Padang A Bekapai Kasim : 10 MBOPD T Balikpapan R Jambi A Balikpapan : 260 SULAWESI Jayapur MBOPD S.Pakning : 50 MBOPD a Musi 135.20 MBOPD Grissik Banjarmasin Palembang IRIAN JAYA SERAM BURU Ujung Pandang TOTAL REFINERY CAPACITY Balongan : 125 I N D O N E S I A 1,057,000 BOPD Jakarta Semarang Cepu : 3.80 MBOPD MBOPD MADURA Bangkalan Pagerungan J A V A Bandung Surabaya SUMBAWA FLORES Yogyakarta Merauke Cilacap: 348 MBOPD BALI LOMBOK Indian Ocean TIMOR SUMBA AUSTRALIA

TARGETS: 1.Per-capita energy consumption of a minimum of 10 BOE (RIKEN) and 95% electrification ratio 95% (RUKN) in the year 2025 2.To achieve the security of domestic energy supply, through: • Energy elasticity less than 1 in the year 2025 • An optimal (primary) energy mix in 2025 : – The role of oil decreases to 26.2% – The role of natural gas increases to 30.6% – The role of coal increases to 32.7% – The role of geothermal power increases to 3.8% – The role of new and renewable sources of energy increases to 4.4% • The fulfillment of fossil-based domestic energy supply through the gradual reduction of exports

NATIONAL ENERGI MIX TARGET FOR THE YEAR 2025 (GR No. 5 / 2006) Bio-fuel 5 % COAL 33 % Geothermal 5 % NRE 17 % Gas 30 % Biomass, Nuclear, Hydropower, OIL 20 % Solar, Wind 5 % Coal Liquefaction 2 %

Projected Trends of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix 100% Geothermal 80% Oil 60% Percent Natural Gas 40% Renewable 20% Coal Bio Fuel Hydropower 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Energy Snap-Shot

Energy Snap-Shot Industrial Sector - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 - 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2000 2050 A (C M ) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (C M ) 2050 B (CM) C O L O IL G A S B M S S /W H ea t H 2 E L E COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE CO2 emission in industrial sector with allocated emission from heat, Energy consumption in industrial sector (Mtoe) H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Economic (VA) increase 4% p.a increase 4% p.a. Energy Mix Oil Reduction (50%) Oil Reduction (60%) + New Technology Efficiency Increase Fuel 10%, Ele 25% Fuel 25%, Ele 50%

Energy Snap-Shot Residential Sector - 10 20 30 40 50 60 - 5 10 15 20 2000 2000 2050 A (C M ) 2050 A (C M ) 2050 B (C M ) 2050 B (C M ) C O L O IL G A S B M S S /W H ea t H 2 E L E C O L O IL G AS B M S S /W H eat H 2 E LE Energy consumption in Residential sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in Residential sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Cooling 1.5%, Cook(S) 1%, Hot Wtr 0.5%, Cook(E) 1.5%, Lighting (2%), Appliance (2.5%) Energy Mix Oil Reduction; Changed of A + Advanced Tech. Hot Non Commersial F Water, Cooking, etc Efficiency Increase 20% 25%

Energy Snap-Shot Transport Sector - 20 40 60 80 100 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

Energy Snap-Shot Power Generation - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W COL GAS OIL NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%