Impact and Science of Climate Change on Asia-Pacific region - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Japan-UK Joint Research Project Impact and Science of Climate Change on Asia-Pacific region National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES) Hideo Harasawa 1

Impact Research in AP Region 1) IPCC (Asia) 2) APN (CAPABLE) 3) AIACC (Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change ) 4) Global Warming Research Initiative (2002 ～ 2005FY, CSTP, Japan) 5) Global Environmental Research Fund (MoE, Japan) B-12 Prediction and Impacts of Extreme events S-4 Thresholds of Impacts / Comprehensive Impacts Assessment in Japan and E-Asia, etc. 6) Global Warming Research Project (1st: 2001 ～ 2005FY, 2nd: 2006FY ～、 NIES) - AIM (Integrated Assessment Model, 1990 ～ ) 7) Other research activities 2

3 Framework of Global Warming Research Initiative

Achievement map for impacts and risk studies in Japan 4

Reports of Global Warming Research Initiative No.4, 2006 (Eng) No.2, 2004 (Eng) No.3, 2006 (Jp) No.1, 2003 (Jp) ? 5

Sustainable Sustainable Mitigation cost Socio- -economic economic Socio development development scenarios scenarios econo 50 50 my A1 A2 40 40 high pluralism growth 30 30 Regional- 20 20 Global- ism ism 10 10 B2 B1 regional 0 0 recycle-based EUROPE+FORMER USSR EUROPE+FORMER USSR 1990 1990 coexistent NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA 2000 2000 ASIA PACIFIC ASIA PACIFIC environ 2010 2010 LATIN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA 2020 2020 ment AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST 2030 2030 2040 2040 Climate scenarios Climate scenarios SO 2 etc -2000 -1000 +1000 +2000 (kg/ha) 0 Impact/adaptation Change of Potential Productivity, Winter Wheat, 2100-1990 Impact/adaptation Emission Scenarios Emission Scenarios assessment assessment CO 2 Carbon Carbon cycle Carbon cycle Sequestration 6 NIES GW Research Project

Collaboration with climate model Climate model Atmosphere Emission model CCSR/NIES CGCM Ocean Land Surface AIM Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario (Asian-Pacific Integrated Water Landuse Model) Resource Crop Socio-Econ. Productivity Factors Food Demand And Supply Impact model 7 Adaptation

8 Observed Impacts of Global Warming

Observed Impacts of Global Warming Retreat of Glaciers Tianshan Glaciers (disappeared by 22% for the past 40 years) Tibettian Glaciers (disappeared 4420km 2 (9%) for the past 30 years) Himalayan Glaciers (500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by 2035) Heat Wave 45-49 o C in May, 2003 in India (1600 death) 2-3 o C increase in July, 2004 in Japan (heat stroke patients more than 600 in Tokyo) Typhoon 10 typhoon landed in 2004 in Japan (>200 death, 120 billion $ damage) Increasing damage in Philippines (900 death, Nov. 2004, >500 , Dec. 2004) Wind Storm Increasing wind storm in Mongolia 9

Observed Impacts in China and Japan China ・ Sea level rise: 1.4 – 2.5 mm per year ・ Change in plant growing period 2-3.5 days in temperature increase 1oC ・ Coral reef appearing in Gungxi and Haian Provinces Japan ・ Sea level rise 2.03mm/year (1970- 2003) • Lake Ice: Lake Suwa in Nagano Prefecture Omiwatari , “the divinity’s pathway,” Omiwatari has not been seen very often in recent years •Decreased alpine flora in Hokkaido, the north island in Japan and other high mountains • Expanded distribution of southern broad-leaved evergreen trees such as the Chinese Evergreen Oak • Nagasakiageha butterfly ( Papilio memnon thunbergii ), the northern border for which has been Kyushu and Shikoku Islands, appeared in Mie Prefecture in the 1990s, then in Tokyo area in early 2000s • Appearance of the southern tent spider, seen only in western Japan in the 1970s, in the Kanto Region in the 1980s. • Expansion of the wintering spot of the White-Fronted Goose to Hokkaido • Appearance of tropical fish in Osaka Bay. •Breaching of Coral Reef in Okinawa islands • Shifting habitats of ermine and grouse on mountains such as Hakusan and 10 Tateyama to higher elevations. There is some danger of complete disappearance.

Significance 1% 5% 10% N. S. N. Test Earlier Later ※ Change in Days in about 50 years (Minus means earlier flowering) ※ Stat. test if the number of data is longer than 48 years Earlier Flowering of Cherry Trees in Japan 11

Daily max. temperature and number of heat stroke patients who were transported to hospitals in Tokyo suburban areas(May – Sep, 2004 ） Number of heat stroke patients Daily Max. Temp. transported to hospitals Cumulative number of Heat Stroke Patients in 2000 ～ 2003 Number of heat stroke patients transported to hospitals 12 http://www.nies.go.jp/impact/index.html

気温別熱中症患者発生数 気温別熱中症患者発生数 気温別熱中症患者発生数 気温別熱中症患者発生数 Number of Heat Stroke Patients Number of Heat Stroke Patients transported to hospitals transported to hospitals （ａ） （ａ） （ｂ）補正済み （ｂ）補正済み Standalized 2 2 0 0 Number of heat stroke patients 東京２３区 東京２３区 熱中症患者平均搬送数 熱中症患者平均搬送数 Tokyo (center) 3 3 . . 0 0 Number of heat stroke patients 東京都下 東京都下 東京２３区 東京２３区 1 1 5 5 Tokyo (suburban) Tokyo (center) 熱中症患者平均搬送数 熱中症患者平均搬送数 2 2 . . 5 5 transported to hospitals 東京都下 東京都下 川崎市 川崎市 Kawasaki Tokyo (suburban) transported to hospitals 2 2 . . 0 0 川崎市 川崎市 1 1 0 0 Nagoya Kawasaki 名古屋市 名古屋市 名古屋市 名古屋市 Nagoya 1 1 . . 5 5 5 5 1 1 . . 0 0 0 0 . . 5 5 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 5 2 5 2 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 8 2 8 2 9 3 9 3 0 3 0 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 5 5 0 0 . . 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 22 22 3 2 3 2 42 42 5 2 5 2 6 2 6 2 72 72 8 2 8 2 9 3 9 3 03 03 1 3 1 3 23 23 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 5 5 日最高気温（℃） 日最高気温（℃） Daily max. temp( o C) 日最高気温（℃） 日最高気温（℃） Daily max. temp( o C) 1 1 8 8 4 4 . . 0 0 Number of heat stroke patients 1 1 6 6 Number of heat stroke patients 熱中症患者平均搬送数 熱中症患者平均搬送数 東京２３区 東京２３区 Tokyo (center) 3 3 . . 5 5 熱中症患者平均搬送数 熱中症患者平均搬送数 東京２３区 東京２３区 1 1 4 4 Tokyo (center) 東京都下 東京都下 Tokyo (suburban) 3 3 . . 0 0 1 1 2 2 東京都下 東京都下 transported to hospitals Tokyo (suburban) transported to hospitals 川崎市 川崎市 Kawasaki 2 2 . . 5 5 1 1 0 0 川崎市 川崎市 Kawasaki Nagoya 名古屋市 名古屋市 8 8 2 2 . . 0 0 名古屋市 名古屋市 Nagoya 6 6 1 1 . . 5 5 4 4 1 1 . . 0 0 2 2 0 0 . . 5 5 0 0 0 0 . . 0 0 1 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 2 9 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 5 2 5 2 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 8 2 8 2 9 3 9 3 0 0 1 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 71 71 8 1 8 1 92 92 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 22 22 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 52 52 6 2 6 2 72 72 8 2 8 2 9 3 9 3 0 0 日平均気温（℃） 日平均気温（℃） Daily ave. temp( o C) Daily ave. temp( o C) 日平均気温（℃） 日平均気温（℃） 13

Heat Stroke Early Warning System http://www.nies.go.jp/impact/inde x.html http://www.nies.go.jp/health/HeatStroke/index.html 14

15 Future Climate Projection

Future Climate Projection by the Earth Simulator Earth Simulator 16 NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

Temperature (1950 ～ 2100) Temperature Increase ( ℃） 17 NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

Precipitation (1950 ～ 2100) Change in Precipitation (%) 18 NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

1 6 0 1 4 0 Change in higher 1 2 0 temperature days （ 1900 ～ 1 0 0 2100 ） 8 0 6 0 Daily maximum temperature 30 o C without heat island effects 4 0 2 0 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 8 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 8 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 Change in summer heavy 8 rain (June-August, 1990 ～ 2100 ） 6 Daily precipitation is more than 4 100mm 2 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 8 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 8 0 2 1 0 0 NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC 19

Global Climate Regional Climate Model Model （ 280km) (JMA/MRI) To predict future regional climate change in spatially high resolution (20km) Nesting Asian Climate Model(60km) To use GCM output as boundary conditions for regional Climate Model Japan Regional Climate Model(20km) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)/ Metrological Research Institute (MRI) 20

Present 50 years 100 years （ 1981 ～ 2000 Ave. ） （ 2031 ～ 2050 Ave. ） （ 2081 ～ 2100 Ave. ） Predicted Average Temperature in January 21

Present 50 years 100 years （ 1981 ～ 2000 Ave. ） （ 2031 ～ 2050 Ave. ） （ 2081 ～ 2100 Ave. ） Predicted Average Precipitation in January 22

Dr. K. Wada (National Institute for % Land and Infrastructure Fig Change in 100 years probability maximum daily precipitation 23 Management) using Gumbel Distribution (Future (100 years)/ present)

24 Future Impacts

A: Potential productivity of wheat in 2000 and 2050 1) Potential Productivity of wheat in 2000 25 Based on CCSR/NIES Climate Model (A1B) 0 1 2 3 4 (t/ha)