Ian Go Gough gh Lond London on School hool of of Econ onom omics ICH ICHEM, CB CBOS OS A AND ND IPR PR SE SEMI MINAR Un Univ iversity ty of of Bath th 20 Feb ebruary 2 2018
• What are the social impacts of climate change? • How is capitalism driving climate change? • How can we improve and sustain human wellbeing?
Two o ways of s of visu sualising relation onsh ships b s between environ onment, soc society a and econ onom omy Economy society environment The pol e political ec econ onomy The m e mor oral ec econ onomy The global economy dominates Economy a subsystem of human and shapes society and society, which is a subsystem of the environment biosphere
How c w can an we ac achieve e thi this ‘sa s ‘safe and and j just st sp space ace f for or humani anity’ y’? Kate Ra Raworth’s ‘D ‘Doughnut’
The argument in brief GREED economy NEED HEAT society environment Social Climate Policy Policy Social action and public policy
Glo lobal w al war armin ing an g and e envir ironmental al boundaries es
Risi sing greenhouse se gas ases s (GHGs) Gs) CO2 concentrations over 400,000 years 1950
Global warming since 1884
Effects of climate change Hurricane Maria in Dominica “Severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts for billions of people and the natural world” IPCC
Ur Urgen gent p t priority ty Drastic, unprecedented de-carbonisation of the global economy The later it is left, the faster it must happen This does not take account of “tipping points”
Th Three ee climate e pol olicy y agen gendas Mitigat Mit igation, ge geo-engin ineerin ing, adapta ptati tion on Reduce n net f flo low of Fin ind te technofi fixes to Ada dapt pt t to globa bal greenhouse g gases reverse glo lobal w l warmin ing warmi wa ming int nto the the a atm tmosphe here
2015 15 Paris A Agr greem eemen ent • Goal is oal is to h o hold old an any in increase in in glob obal l avera erage e temperature to w o well b ll belo low 2°C, C, a and d aim aim f for or 1.5 .5°C • All co countr ntries t s to deci cide t the heir own wn c con ontributio ion, , re revi viewed e ever ery f five y e yea ears • At prese sent t t the hese se co commi mitm tments a s amount t t to on only ly on one thir ird of of wh what at is is r requir ired. ‘By com omparison on to o what i it cou ould h have b been, i it’s a a mir iracle le. B By c comparison t to wh what it it should ld h have been een, i it’s a disaster’ ( (Mon Monbiot)
Cap apit italis lism, gr growth an and in inequalit ality
The A Ant nthr hropo opoce cene Capitalist era of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and global warming Global CO 2 e emissions per region from 1920 to today
Capit italis ism • “Legitimate greed” is the driving force of the economic system • Pursuit of profit is the defining goal • Accumulation and economic growth are essential, inbuilt features • Concentrations of capital create powerful interests that can influence or buy governments
Economic growth an and emiss ssions • Growth is the key driver of emissions • But capitalism also generates relentless technological change • This has improved “eco-efficiency” through increased production with lower GHG emissions • Thus far growing output has always outpaced improved eco-efficiency • But ‘green growth’ remains the dominant strategy
Percentage change i in territorial e emi mission ons t to o Production-based and consumption-based emissions reflect impact o of cons nsumption of CO CO2 Who emits?
UK consu sumption an and p production emi emissions 1990 90-201 010 Consumption Production
Aver erage e consumpti tion on emissi ssions
The “Plutocene” World’s richest 10% account for 50% of consumption emissions Global income deciles and associated lifestyle consumption emissions
The he do double – and tr triple e - injust stice • Rich countries are responsible for most past consumption emissions • Poorer countries suffer more from negative impacts of climate change • Reducing emissions can harm poorer groups – Carbon pricing hits the poor harder – Climate policies can widen inequalities
Risi sing inequality drives s emissi ssions • Ineq equality with ithin in c countries es d driv ives es s statu tatus competiti etition a and exces essive e consumptio tion • Lin inked ed to to lo longer er workin king h hours and d more de debt bt • Hin inder ers colle llective e actio tion to o cont ontrol ol e emission ons – Ineq equality er erodes es tr trust an and solid lidar arity – Ric ich c can an g go priv ivat ate in in man any ar y areas eas red educin ing commitmen ent to public lic g goods an and coll llec ective e action. n.
Why w y we e mus must mo move e beyon ond gr green een gr growth Green growth the dominant strategy today 1. The pragmatic case – Increasing eco-efficiency, though essential, cannot be enough 2. The moral case – Issues of equity and justice are sidelined – Consumer preferences and spending power still determine what is produced So we require an alternative moral standard
The m moral e al economy Needs an and sustain ainable le w wellb llbein ing
Ne Needs a ds and d su susta stainable de developm pmen ent “Sustainable development… meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” It contains within it two key concepts: 1. Needs 2. Limitations Brundtland Report 1987
What t are e huma uman n need eeds? Three basic human needs: • Social participation (affiliation, relatedness, belonging) • Health (physical and mental wellbeing) • Autonomy (competence, practical reasoning) If these are not satisfied then serious harm results.
Univer ersal inter erme mediate e needs • Nutrition and water • Housing and safe environments • Healthcare and safe birth control • Security in childhood and significant primary relationships • Physical and economic security • Appropriate education.
Impact pact of of cl climat ate c e change on e on sati satisfacti tion o of hu f human ne needs ds: : he health th • Direct impacts – Extreme heat, fires, floods, infectious diseases, rising sea levels • Effects of burning fossil fuels – 87% of cities globally are in breach of WHO guidelines on air pollution • Global food security – Drought, soil erosion, loss of biodiversity • Distress migration – Loss of livelihoods and rising insecurity Plus the danger of tipping points and climate breakdown.
Why y are human n needs ce ds centr tral al t to su susta stainable w e wellbe being? Because human needs are • universal • objective • plural and non-substitutable • satiable and sufficient • cross-generational
Needs provide a moral metric… … To move beyond green growth • Human needs enable us to compare and assess wellbeing across the world and into the future • They are crucial for understanding social rights and social justice – across generations – across cultures – across class, gender and other differences within countries
Wha hat can b be d done? Three s stage ages o of t tran ansit ition The r role le o of eco-socia ial p l polic licie ies
Social policy an and huma uman n need eed “Welfare states” are under attack, but still perform crucial roles in meeting needs: • Income security, income buffers • Social services, e.g. NHS • Social investment, e.g. policies on employment, wages, education and skills These strengthen security and resilience in face of climate change They are preventive and precautionary
Cl Climate p policy and global war arming • Legal & institutional frameworks – UK Climate Change Act 2008 – Despite attacks this still holds • Major policy instruments – Carbon taxing and pricing – Public standards and regulation – Green investment • Existence, patterns and impacts of these policies vary greatly between nations
Join ining up p social and nd clima mate policies es • Social policy ignores climate sustainability • Climate policies can be inequitable: – Carbon pricing hurts lower income households – Current UK policies exacerbate fuel poverty • So we require joined-up policy and practice between social and climate programmes
Three str strat ateg egies es towards ds a a susta su stainable fu e futu ture 1. Equitable green growth 2. Recompose consumption in rich countries 3. Degrowth/post-growth – reduce total demand in rich countries
Level 1 1. Equita table g green g n growth th • Green New Deal to retrofit the housing stock, starting with the most energy inefficient • Invest in low carbon public transport • Social tariffs for electricity, gas, water • Stronger policies to reduce inequality This calls for active state steering of markets, incompatible with neo-liberal capitalism “The tragedy of Bad Timing” – Naomi Klein
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