I I know ow when en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

I I know ow when en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic lytics Pri rice e analy alysis sis and d fore recas cast t for r Salmo mon Tom m Bundg ndgaa aard Kairos Commodities www.kairoscommodities.com tb@kairoscommodities.com Tom Bundgaard Chief Analyst May 2019 MSTA, MFTA www.kairoscommodities.com

Our mission Concrete hedging recommendations Clear forecasts Market analysis 2

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Price volatility 4

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Our analytical model Macro economy Technical analysis Fundamental analysis 6

Our analytical model 7

Our analytical model 8

Regression ”Fair value for salmon ” 9

Regression 1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend 10

Regression 1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend 11

Regression 1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend 9m 5m 3m 12

Regression Conclusion: 1. The fair band is turning down 2. Prices are in a bubble 13

Macro economy Technical analysis 14

Technical ”63 - 67 NOK April 2019” analysis ”55 - 65 NOK Q1/20” Anticipations versus Signals ”46 - 49 NOK Q3/19” 15

Technical analysis Anticipations versus Signals 16

Technical analysis Anticipations versus Signals 17

Macro economy 18

Macro economy 19

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1. Contractual 2. Physical 3. Financial 4. Structural hedging (customer prices, internal budget etc.) 21

Technical Uptrend analysis Downtrend Anticipations versus Signals 22

Hedging 23

Our mission Concrete hedging recommendations Clear forecasts Market analysis 24

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I hope you got some inspiration !

www.kairoscommodities.com Tom Bundgaard, Chief Analyst tb@kairoscommodities.com 27

Disclaimer The views expressed in this research accurately reflects the personal views of the analyst, and this research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of Kairos and must not be copied, either in whole or in part. Nothing in this research shall be construed as solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research , we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision based on this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are always risks involved in trading and securities. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of Kairos or DILF accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research.

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