Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Study Phase 2B Draft Results February 13, 2014 Presentation By Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.
W ASHINGTON -R ICHMOND -H AMPTON R OADS C ORRIDOR IS PART OF S EHSR 1 TEMS, Inc.
HRTPO B OARD R ESOLUTION (O CTOBER 2009) The Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO) Resolution #2009-05 provides an overarching vision for development of rail passenger service to the Hampton Roads region. The resolution endorses: • Designation of a “High-Speed Rail” corridor along the NS/Route 460 corridor; and • Enhancement of existing intercity passenger rail service along the CSXT/I-64 corridor. 2 TEMS, Inc.
O RIGINALLY , D EVELOPMENT “S TEPS ” WERE D EFINED FOR B OTH THE P ENINSULA AND S OUTHSIDE R OUTES No. of Steps Route Max Speed Infrastructure Station Trains Shared Track Main Street I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Schedule Enhancement Bowers Hill Step 1 Route 460/Norfolk Shared Track Staples Mill Only 79 mph 1-3 Southern NS Norfolk DRPT Focus Main Street I-64/CSXT 79 mph 3 Shared Track Newport News (existing) Step 2 Route 460/ Shared Track Main Street 79-90 mph* 4-6 Norfolk Southern V Line Bowers Hill Main Street I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Newport News Step 3 Downtown/Airport Route 460/ Dedicated Track Main Street 110 mph 8-12 HRTPO Norfolk Southern V Line Bowers Hill Focus Main Street I-64/CSXT 110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Newport News Step 4 Downtown/Airport Route 460/Norfolk Dedicated Electric Track Main Street 150 mph 12-16 Southern V-Line Bowers Hill *Note: Norfolk Southern (NS) does not permit passenger train maximum authorized speed in excess of 79-mph on any NS track. Where the V-line (former Virginian Railway) has existing freight services, maximum authorized speed for passenger trains will be 79-mph. Along the Algren – Kenyon portion of the V-line (over which NS freight rail service has been formally abandoned), passenger rail planners may consider speeds above 79-mph. 3 TEMS, Inc.
… B UT , RECENTLY THE F OCUS HAS BEEN ON REFINING PLAN FOR THE S OUTHSIDE S ERVICE TO N ORFOLK No. of Steps Route Max Speed Infrastructure Station Trains Norfolk-Richmond Dedicated Track Main Street Step 3 110 mph 8-12 along Route 460 V Line Bowers Hill Norfolk-Richmond Dedicated Electric Main Street Step 4 150 mph+ 12-16 along Route 460 Track V Line Bowers Hill Focus of the HRTPO Passenger Rail Study 4 TEMS, Inc.
TEMS S TUDIES . . . Phase 2A Phase 2B Phase 1A Phase 1B Phase 1A: Preliminary Study of High Speed Rail Potential Phase 1B: Blueprint Study Developing High and Higher Speed Rail Phase 2A: Data Collection for Norfolk-Richmond Corridor Phase 2B: Vision Plan Alternatives Analysis: Norfolk-Richmond Corridor 5 TEMS, Inc.
T RAIN T ECHNOLOGY HAS A DVANCED SINCE 2010! Diesel HrST 90-130 mph Electric HST 160-220 mph Business Model of the Midwest Business Model of California HSR Regional Rail Initiative Speeds up to 220-mph on dedicated high Speeds up to 130-mph on dedicated speed tracks; high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared tracks Tier I Compliant trains for Shared in urban areas tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Electric Low Center of Gravity Diesel Locomotives Locomotives Passive Tilting Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment Existing +New Alignment 6 TEMS, Inc.
V ISION P LAN A LTERNATIVES A NALYSIS : N ORFOLK -R ICHMOND R OUTE O PTIONS Stations Southern Option 1A Southern Option 1B Northern Option 2A Northern Option 2B Richmond Direct Option 3 Options 1B/2B Shared (NS) 7 TEMS, Inc.
M ARKET S TUDY A REA - B OSTON TO C HARLOTTE : R IDERSHIP & R EVENUE A NALYSIS 8 TEMS, Inc.
S UMMARY OF N ORFOLK TO W ASHINGTON , DC H IGH S PEED T RAIN S CHEDULE R ESULTS Stations Super Express Express Local Norfolk √ √ √ Bowers Hill √ √ √ Suffolk – – √ Petersburg/Hopewell* – √ √ Richmond Main St √ √ √ Ashland – – √ Fredericksburg – √ √ Quantico – – √ Alexandria √ √ √ Washington Union √ √ √ 130-mph Total Trains 4 trains 5 trains 4 trains 130-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 2:36 2:46 3:01 130-mph Time Richmond Direct 2:31 2:36 2:51 220-mph Total Trains 5 trains 10 trains 3 trains 220-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 1:45 1:55 2:10 220-mph Time Richmond Direct 1:38 1:43 1:58 * Petersburg and Hopewell stations are bypassed by Route Option 3 Richmond Direct 9 TEMS, Inc.
130/220 MPH H IGH -S PEED P ASSENGER R AIL R IDERSHIP F ORECAST -A NNUAL P ERSON T RIPS : N ORFOLK -R ICHMOND -W ASHINGTON , DC C ORRIDOR 6.00 2025 Annual High-Speed Ridership (million trips) 5.33 5.15 5.00 5.00 130 mph 3.71 4.00 3.54 3.49 220 mph 3.00 * 130 mph: 1 in 6 people in the Norfolk – Washington Corridor 2.00 make 1 round trip/year * 220 mph: 1 in 4 people in the 1.00 Norfolk – Washington Corridor make 1 round trip/year - Southern Option 1 via Northern Option 2 via Option 3 Richmond Petersburg Hopewell Direct Notes: Ridership from existing Peninsula service is not included in this figure. Additionally, ridership forecast assumptions include development of SEHSR service, NEC Master Plan service, Norfolk to DC HSR service, and 3 trains a day from Newport News to DC. Forecast Annual Person Trips Option 1 via Petersburg Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph (millions) Southside service to Richmond/Petersburg 0.30 0.45 0.29 0.45 0.33 0.50 Southside service to points between DC and Richmond 0.47 0.87 0.47 0.87 0.59 1.01 Southside service to DC 0.69 1.13 0.69 1.13 0.82 1.27 Southside service to points north of DC 0.28 0.55 0.28 0.55 0.32 0.62 Note: Southside service includes departures from Norfolk, Bowers Hill, and Suffolk. 10 TEMS, Inc.
130/220 MPH H IGH -S PEED P ASSENGER R AIL R EVENUE F ORECAST -A NNUAL R EVENUE : N ORFOLK -R ICHMOND -W ASHINGTON , DC C ORRIDOR $350 2025 Annual High-Speed Revenues (million 2012$) $311.70 $320.10 $323.90 $300 $250 130 mph $194.20 $185.80 $182.00 $200 220 mph $150 $100 $50 $0 Southern Option 1 via Northern Option 2 via Option 3 Richmond Direct Petersburg Hopewell Notes: Revenue from existing Peninsula service is not included in this figure. Additionally, revenue forecast assumptions include development of SEHSR service, NEC Master Plan service, Norfolk to DC HSR service, and 3 trains a day from Newport News to DC. Forecast Annual Revenue Option 1 via Petersburg Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct (millions) 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph Southside service to Richmond/Petersburg $ 7.52 $ 14.54 $ 7.47 $ 14.45 $ 8.36 $ 15.81 Southside service to points between DC and Richmond $ 34.56 $ 69.17 $ 34.54 $ 69.09 $ 40.83 $ 75.85 Southside service to DC $ 58.42 $ 102.15 $ 58.39 $ 102.06 $ 66.36 $ 108.41 Southside service to points north of DC $ 22.31 $ 49.33 $ 22.33 $ 49.05 $ 24.50 $ 53.47 Note: Southside service includes departures from Norfolk, Bowers Hill, and Suffolk. 11 TEMS, Inc.
2025 F INANCIAL R ESULTS ( MILLIONS 2012$) Southern Option 1 - Via Petersburg Option 3: 220 mph has Financial 2025 Southern Option 1A - Southern Option 1B - (mill. 2012$) the largest operating 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph surplus and highest Total Revenue $210.30 $357.43 $210.30 $357.43 operating ratio. Total Cost $132.95 $179.51 $132.95 $179.51 $77.35 $177.92 $77.35 $177.92 Operating Surplus Operating Ratio 1.58 1.99 1.58 1.99 Northern Option 2 - Via Hopewell Option 3 - Richmond Financial 2025 Northern Option 2A Northern Option 2B Direct (million 2012$) 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph Total Revenue $ 206.17 $ 348.32 $ 206.17 $ 348.32 $ 218.79 $ 360.99 Total Cost $ 131.57 $ 175.77 $ 131.57 $ 175.77 $ 134.63 $ 178.63 Operating Surplus $ 74.60 $ 172.55 $ 74.60 $ 172.55 $ 84.16 $ 182.36 Operating Ratio 1.57 1.98 1.57 1.98 1.63 2.02 12 TEMS, Inc.
C APITAL C OSTS BY S EGMENT : 220 MPH (2013$ MILLIONS ) Option 3: 1A Southern 1B NS via OPTION 220 mph is the Greenfield/Petersburg Petersburg lowest cost Equipment $590,000 $590,000 option Richmond to Washington, DC $3,439,910 $3,439,910 Newport News to Richmond N/A N/A Norfolk to Richmond $3,318,834 $3,261,481 Total $7,348,743 $7,291,391 2A Northern 2B NS via 3 Richmond OPTION Greenfield/Hopewell I-295/Hopewell Direct Equipment $590,000 $590,000 $590,000 Richmond to Washington, DC $3,439,910 $3,439,910 $3,439,910 Newport News to Richmond N/A N/A N/A Norfolk to Richmond $3,320,923 $3,235,350 $3,121,971 Total $7,350,833 $7,265,260 $7,151,881 130 mph option costs 75% of the 220 mph option 13 TEMS, Inc.
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