Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts December 17, 2013 Presentation By Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.
COMPASS™ Forecasting Process Data Base Year Transport Requirement Socio- Network Economics Stated Preference Demand Survey Trip Base Year Model Matrices Matrix Calibration Origin- • Total Demand Destination • Induced Demand Data • Modal Split Model System Development Economic Scenarios Travel Demand Forecasts Travel Forecast Revenue Financial Forecasting Transportation Demand Year Trip Analysis Analysis Assumptions Strategies Model Run Matrices User Economic Benefit Rent Analysis Analysis Evaluation Process 1 TEMS, Inc.
Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System Number of State Zones Connecticut 5 Delaware 1 District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70 Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9 North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5 Virginia 162 Total Number of Zones 333 PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY WILLIAMSBURG YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS POQUOSON HAMPTON ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH VIRGINIA BEACH SUFFOLK CHESAPEAKE 2 TEMS, Inc.
Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In WILLIAMSBURG GLOUCESTER COUNTY JAMES CITY COUNTY YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS POQUOSON HAMPTON HAMPTON ROADS ISLE OFWIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH CHESAPEAKE 3 TEMS, Inc.
Sources for Socioeconomic Database U.S. Census Bureau Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Richmond Regional Planning District Commission Crater Planning District Commission Virginia Employment Commission Metropolitan Washington County of Governments Baltimore Metropolitan Council Bureau of Economic Analysis Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 4 TEMS, Inc.
Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte 5 TEMS, Inc.
Attributes Included in COMPASS™ Transportation Networks Public Modes Auto In-Vehicle Time Travel Time Access/Egress Time Congestion Delay Time Transfer Time Wait Time Fare Operating Costs* Costs Access/Egress Costs Tolls* Parking Cost Parking Costs* Schedule Service Frequency * Divided by occupancy 6 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of Transportation Networks Transportation networks were based on: State and Local Departments of Transportation highway databases National Highway System (NHS) database Amtrak schedules Airline schedules The ten percent sample of airline tickets Greyhound schedules Megabus schedules 7 TEMS, Inc.
COMPASS™ Networks The COMPASS™ Networks include the following networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY): Intercity Highway Passenger Rail Air Intercity Bus 8 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of Base Year Trip Database The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket Database T-100 Air Market and Segment Database Greyhound and Megabus Schedules Previous travel origin-destination surveys State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland, Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Amtrak passenger rail ridership data Amtrak station volume data TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey 9 TEMS, Inc.
Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Travel Market Share by Mode Person Trips by Mode (million) Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: 58.97 Million 10 TEMS, Inc.
Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter - $7.15 $14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88 VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13 VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $62.91 - $42.73 Commuter - $8.89 $29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66 Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes 11 TEMS, Inc.
Future Crude Oil Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 12 TEMS, Inc.
Future Gasoline Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 13 TEMS, Inc.
Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) historical automobile highway energy intensities data 14 TEMS, Inc.
Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 15 TEMS, Inc.
Highway Congestion Estimates Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection 2025 Estimated 2012 Travel Time Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min 16 TEMS, Inc.
COMPASS™ Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure Total Demand Public LEVEL 4 Auto Modes Surface Air LEVEL 3 Modes LEVEL 2 Bus Rail LEVEL 1 Southside/Norfolk Peninsula Route Route 17 TEMS, Inc.
Travel Utility Estimation Process Step 1: Rail Southside/Norfolk Route: Rail Peninsula Route: Compute Utilities for Rail = α + β = β U GC U GC Rail South Rail South Rail South Rail South Rail Peninsula Rail Peninsula Rail Peninsula and Bus Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail Rail: Bus: = β = α + β + U GC U Ln [exp( U ) exp( U )] and Bus Bus Bus Bus Rail Rail Rail Rail South Rail Peninsula Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface Surface: Air: = α + β + = β U Ln [exp( U ) exp( U )] U GC and Air Surface Surface Surface Rail Bus Air Air Air Step 4: Auto: Public: Compute Utilities for Public = β = α + β + U GC U Ln [exp( U ) exp( U )] and Auto Auto Auto Auto Public Public Public Surface Air Step 5: Total: Compute Total Utility = + U Ln [exp( U ) exp( U )] Total Auto Public Reference: Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R. Lerman, The MIT Press 1987 18 TEMS, Inc.
Study Area Travel Market Forecast – Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9% 19 TEMS, Inc.
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Option 3 Richmond Direct Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 20 TEMS, Inc.
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 21 TEMS, Inc.
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 22 TEMS, Inc.
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 23 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 24 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 25 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 26 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 27 TEMS, Inc.
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