Grain quotation behaviour Source: CBOT Winter crop area, Ml ha - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Black Sea Region : 2018/19 Outlook Liza Malyshko UkrAgroConsult April 2018

Grain quotation behaviour Source: CBOT

Winter crop area, Ml ha Ukraine 2017 2018 Change, +/- Bulgaria 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 6,17 6,27 + 0,1 wheat 1,1 1,1 0 rye 0,17 0,15 - 0,02 rye 0 0 0 barley 0,89 0,83 - 0,06 barley 0,14 0,12 -0,02 Total grain 7,23 7,25 + 0,02 Total grain 1,24 1,22 -0,02 rapeseed 0,90 1,01 +0,11 rapeseed 0,16 0,17 +0,01 Russia 2017 2018 Change, +/- Romania 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 14,93 14,8 -0,07 wheat 2,02 1,98 -0,04 rye rye 1,18 1,15 -0,03 0,03 0,02 0,01 barley 0,52 0,55 +0,03 barley 0,47 0,43 -0,04 Total grain 16,78 16,65 -0,13 Total grain 2,52 2,43 -0,09 rapeseed rapeseed 0,15 0,21 +0,06 0,59 0,64 +0,05 Source: official data

Ukraine. Winter crops condition Source: Ag Ministry

Ukraine. Fertilizers usage Source: Statistic Committee

Non typical Spring

Ukraine. Winter crops feed up Source: Ag Ministry

Non typical Spring. Risks Source: Statistic Committee , С limate monitor

Ukraine. May Risks & Possibilities deviation from average deviation from average year deviation from trend yield temperature in May precipitation in May 2006 -4% -0,6 107% 2007 -19% 3,5 34% 2008 14% -0,5 73% 2009 2% 0 70% 2010 -20% 1,8 138% 2011 4% 0,7 90% 2012 -13% 2,7 46% 2013 18% 2,9 118% 2014 5% 1,1 270% 2015 -5% 0,8 70% 2016 9% -0,3 108% 2017 -4% -0,5 54% Source: Statistic Committee , С limate monitor

Black Sea Region. Wheat crop 160 MMT 138 128 140 127 115 120 100 26,1 26,3 26,1 80 26,5 60 40 20 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

2018 Margin calculation Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

Ukraine. Spring barley planting Source: Ag Ministry

Black Sea Region. Barley crop 40 MMT 34 33 32 35 31 30 25 8,3 9,45 7,75 8,28 20 15 10 5 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

Black Sea Region. Grain crop 245 250 231 232 MMT 208 200 61,78 64,21 62,05 150 60,06 100 50 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

Grain Export Share, 2017/18MY ММТ Ukraine Bulgaria Romania Kazakhstan Russia Black Sea total Crop 62,5 8,7 21,6 20 133 246 Exports 42,3 5,7 11 8,6 50 118 Share, % 68% 66% 51% 43% 38% 48% Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

Ukraine. Production and Exports of Grain Processing Products Source: State Statistic Committee

Black Sea Region. Grain Exports 120 116 111 MMT 107 95 100 80 41 42 60 44,9 38,4 40 20 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate

Competition in the Wheat Market 16/17 17/18* 16/17 17/18* Indonesia 1 612 1 793 Indonesia 344 1037 India 2 932 503 India 156 278 Thailand 1 595 662 Thailand 63 65 Bangladesh Bangladesh 1 720 1 393 1 867 1 549 Philippines Philippines 687 1002 17 165 Korea Korea 1064 719 66 240 Tunisia Tunisia 650 516 221 193 Egypt 2 512 1250 Egypt 6 700 4905

Competition in the Corn Market Source: Custom service

Ukraine. Grain Exports to China Corn Barley 2014/15 3660 251 2015/16 2465 647 2016/17 1433 300 2017/18 1856 789 2017/18 till April 2017/18 based on Jul-Jan data Source: Custom service

Stocks to Use in the Top-5 Main Importers wheat corn * Indonesia, Egypt, Algeria, Brazil, Bangladesh * EU, Mexico, Japan, Egypt, Korea Source: USDA

Conclusions • Winter crops in the best condition for the last 4 years in Ukraine • Non typical spring brings the risks for yield of both winter and spring crops in Black Sea Region • Grain Crop may decrease by 5-7% to 231MMT due to some shortage of winter grain area and weather risks • Grain exports may decrease only by 2-3% • Wheat competition moves to South East Asia, including Indonesia, India, Philippine, Korea… • Corn competition on regional level: BS vs South America

Start up of the 2018/19 season Prices for new season in the mid of April Commodity 2017/18 2018/19 Barley 155-158 208-212 Feed wheat 162-166 186-190 Milling wheat 173-177 196-200 Corn 168-170 190-195

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! +380 44 451 46 34 +380 44 220 52 42 agro@ukragroconsult.org

Start up of the 2018/19 season

Изменение системы питания в Индонезии Wheat shipments to Indonesia 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Ukraine Russia

Conclusions Crop is decreasing by 5-7% to 231MMT Wheat competition moves to East Asia Corn competition between regions

Украина. Поголовье скота и птицы Source: State Statistic Committee

Changes in key grain area and yield exporters, %

Что будут сеять весной? Margin, USD/MT

Структура экспорта пшеницы 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18* Feed wheat 31,0% 57,1% 51,0% 65% Wheat 11 pro 52,3% 35,4% 40,5% 28% 15,9% 7,5% 8,5% 6,9% Wheat 12,5 pro 0,8% 0,04% 0,0% 0,1% Wheat 14 pro Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimates

Ценовые спреды кукуруза/ячмень и кукуруза/подсолнечник

Направления экспорта зерна Wheat Barley Corn 17.5 5.3 21.2 India 2,9 Saudi Arabia 2,3 EU 8,6 Egypt 2,6 Libya 0,95 Egypt 3,6 Bangladesh 1,7 China 0,3 Iran 2,2 Indonesia 1,65 Algeria 0,25 China 1,4 Thailand 1,6 EU 0,4 Israel 1,0 Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimates

Восстановление спроса на мясо птицы в Китае