Growing Population Gr o w ing S chools 1
context context E x t e n s i v e 174,045 mo r e p eo p le w ill need 72,530 ne w housing units b y 2030 demographic shifts Visibly C ommunity S uggestions transforming M i s s i o n B a y , C a n d l e s t i c k , San Francisco P a r k m e r c e d , S h i p y a r d I m p lications f o r Vision 2025 t r a n s f o r m i n g portfolio of public schools public schools in S an Fr ancisco 2
1994-2015 1994-2015 62,293 Closed & merged schools E n r o l l m e n t t 57,485 1 9 9 4 t o 2 0 0 8 d e c r e a s i n g Since 2008 increasing F utu r e en r ollment ? 3
Projections Projections are exercises showing 1 possible future enrollment make assumptions 2 About Future trends can vary significantly 3 depending on assumptions 4
approach approach SF Planning Department • Office of Community • C olla b o r ati v e Investment & Infrastructure Mayor’s Office of Housing & • Community Development Lapkoff Gobalet Demographic • Data Driven Research Inc. 2002, 2010, 2013, 2015 forecasts • Enrollment from housing growth • close to forecasts - actual O n g o i n g enrollment close to median Plan to continue evaluating student • yields as details about new housing become available 5
Method Method E n r o l l m e n t t EXISTING HOUSING p r o j e c t i o n s p r o j e c t i o n s • B i r th to kinde r ga r ten r atio • Gr ade pr og r essions Students in existing housing NEW HOUSING + • S tudent yields Students from new housing 6
B i r th to K inde r R atio Birth trends excellent K inde r ga r ten E n r ollment p r e d i c t o r o f f u t u r e ( # b i r ths 5 yea r s pr io r) x (K/b i r th r atio ) kindergarten enrollment • Kindergarten enrollments ü Ratio stable between 1990 and 2008 usually about ½ number of ü Since 2008 increase in births five years earlier ratio, 54 to 57% • Number of births increased ü Kindergarten cohorts larger since 2008 during the 2000s • Birth rates fairly stable, so K enrollment should continue to grow/be relatively stable 7
Gr ade Pr og r essions G r a d e P r o g r e s s i o n s = C hanges in coho r t si{e as students mo v e th r ough g r ades ü Start with current Finding from Analysis of Grade enrollments Progressions ES - relatively stable over • ü Age students to time next grade using MS - recently fewer • historical grade students than prior years progressions to HS - starting 5 years ago, • predict future rates more students staying in [ some lea v e , othe r s ente r] SFUSD schools 8
S tudent Y ields A V E R A G E N U M B E R O F S T U D E N T S P E R H O U S I N G U N I T More than 70,000 new PROJECTIONS CAN VARY housing units planned S I G N I F I C A N T L Y • If student yield were .10, D E P E N D I N G O N forecast 7,000 new students A S S U M P T I O N S • If student yield were .20, forecast 14,000 new students Important to base assumptions about student yields on careful study of all available information about current and future housing 9
S tudent Y ields • Measured student yields in existing housing using 9 years of enrollment data • Yields varied widely by nature of housing – Type: condos, apartments, townhouses, single-family houses – Cost of housing – Where units located – Size of units • Modified historical yields to generate ranges for market-rate units • Used yields to forecast enrollment (# future units) x (student yield) 10
N eed M o r e I n f o r mation To refine assumptions about student yields • How market rate units will be distributed across housing categories How market rate units will be distributed (e.g., tower, condo midrise, townhouse, etc.). Student yields vary a lot in different types of market-rate units. Number of senior units in each development. Want to use number • Number of senior units of family units as denominator when computing student yields rather than total unit count. Bedroom mix of developments, especially new developments • Bedroom mix that contain no children. know enough to make some policy decisions know enough to make some policy decisions don’t know everything we’d like to, but confident in our approach 11
key findings key findings 1. 1. Enrollment will continue to grow Enrollment will continue to grow extent depends on assumptions about yields 2. 2. Greatest number of new students will live in Greatest number of new students will live in Bayview, S. Market, Treasure Is, Financial District & Lakeshore 3. 3. 25% of current students live in 3 25% of current students live in 3 nhoods nhoods Bayview, Excelsior, & Mission 12
Projections to 2025 Projections to 2025 K-Birth ratio + grade progressions + student yields from new housing 5,888 More Students by 2025 64,000 63,000 62,000 63,373 61,000 60,000 59,000 58,000 57,000 57,485 56,000 55,000 54,000 13
Space for growth Space for growth # 2025 Addi=onal Current Growth by Projected Seats Enrollment 2025 Enrollment Capacity Needed 29,045 Elementary 27,610 2,355 29,965 -920 14,438 1,131 Middle 12,075 1,232 13,307 19,933 High 17,800 2,301 20,101 -168 Total 57,485 5,888 63,373 63,416 14
ELEMENTARY GROWTH ELEMENTARY GROWTH Ok until 2020 – by 2025 need 900 more spaces 29,965 Assumptions 29,186 100% of surplus space • 29,045 is filled, & 29,045 Charter school • Surplus space for 1,435 28,774 enrollment stays at more students 600, & Inter district • 27,610 enrollment stays at 460, & Historical student • yields from new housing are accurate. ES Capacity ES Projections 15
ES Growth by nhood ES Growth by nhood Bayview, South of 617 61 Market, Treasure Is, 356 356 280 & Financial District 280 226 226 14 will experience 147 10 100 86 86 62 62 57 57 greatest growth Bayview South of Treasure Financial Vis Valley Mission Outer Lakeshore Potrero Market Is and YB District Mission SF Planning Current New Students Enrollment by Bayview, Mission, Neighborhood Students 2025 Vis Valley, & Bayview 2,707 617 3,324 Mission 1,968 100 2,068 Outer Mission Vis Valley 1,572 147 1,719 will have over Outer Mission 1,252 86 1,338 South of Market 614 356 970 8,000 elementary Potrero 469 57 526 students by 2025 Lakeshore 457 62 519 Treasure Is and YB 136 280 416 Financial District 67 226 293 16
If Yields are higher If Yields are higher Have enough 3 32,5 ,512 space until 31,922 2020 31,456 31,105 30,386 Need 672 2 29,9 ,965 29,717 more spaces 28,954 by 2020 28,443 28,239 29,045 28,031 27,696 Need 3,467 more spaces by 2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Capacity ES Projections Modified Projections 17
Staff observations Staff observations 1. 1. Students needs & desires are paramount Students needs & desires are paramount Discussions about capacity to accommodate enrollment growth must extend beyond discussions about physical space. We need to create opportunities that will meet the needs and desires of our students and families. 2. 2. Reverse out migration from Reverse out migration from bayview bayview Policies and practices have unintentionally contributed to a pattern of underenrollled and racially isolated schools in one of the most densely populated and diverse neighborhoods in the City. Over 6,000 students live in the Bayview, and more than 70% are enrolled in schools outside the Bayview. We need a better understanding of the commitments and investments needed to reverse the out migration from the Bayview. 18
Staff Recommendations to board Staff Recommendations to board 1. 1. Transform surplus space Transform surplus space in our current elementary schools into openings that will meet the needs and desires of our families and students. This will increase our capacity to enroll 1,435 more students providing enough space until 2020, and perhaps until 2022. 2. 2. Work closely with the Treasure Island Work closely with the Treasure Island Development Authority Development Authority No new students expected before 2020, however, 277 expected between 2020 and 2025. 19
Staff Recommendations to board Staff Recommendations to board 3. 3. Construct two or more elementary schools Construct two or more elementary schools in the following San Francisco Planning Neighborhoods Bayview – South of Market – 4. 4. Use the following questions to guide the Use the following questions to guide the decision making process decision making process when identifying a specific location for new construction Have developers set aside land / facilities / financial • resources to build new schools to support growth from new housing? Could we repurpose existing facilities? • Could we increase the size of current schools? • 20
Next steps Next steps Continue to study student yields and modify 1. 1. Continue to study student yields projections based on findings Share information with key stakeholders 2. 2. Share information (all staff, City partners, community) Use information to inform policy decisions 3. 3. Use information 21
Questions & discussion 22
AP APPENDIX 23
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