Fut ure Est imat ion of I ron St ock & Flow in J apan and China - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

T h e 1 4 t h A I M I n t e r n a t i o n a l W o r k s h o p T h e 1 4 t h A I M I n t e r n a t i o n a l W o r k s h o p Fut ure Est imat ion of I ron St ock & Flow in J apan and China Reina Kawase Kyot o Universit y 15-16, Febr uar y 2009 At Ohyama Memor ial Hall Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Envir onment al St udies, Tsukuba, J apan 1

Review of last year Title: Development of Iron Stock & Flow Model in Japan and China Description: Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM) Goods: Building, Civil engineering structures, Car, Ship, Other transport equipment, Machine, Electrical machine, Business machine, Others 9 kinds (JPN) C a r C a r P r o d u c t i o n S e c t o r G o o d s S t o c k 7kinds (CHN) S h i p S h i p O t h e r T R S Periods: 1970-2002(JPN) T r s . M C N e q u i p . F C 1984-2005(CHN) P i g I r o n I n d . M a c h i n e I n d . M C N I r o n O r e E l e . M a c h i n e E l e . M C N P i g Outputs: Steel stock, I r o n C r u d e C r u d e Input to stock, H s h . M a c h i n e H s h . M C N O t h e r S t e e l S t e e l S t e e l S t e e l M T L Scrap generation B u i l d i n g B u i l d i n g S c r a p by final demand M i n e C i v i l E n g . C v l . E N G S t r u c t u r e s goods L a n d f i l l O t h e r O t h e r P R S S c r a p D P R S c r a p 2

Methodology (Example of Japan) 1. Calculate Steel Stock by final demand goods :1970-2002 � � � Steel INP d Good PRD 1250 i k i k _ _ Steel Stock (Mil ton) , k 1000 Required data: Steel input to goods ① Steel stock by final 750 Goods production,,,,,, demand goods 500 Input-output relation Eq. Regression 250 Goods balance analysis Sector balance ,,,,,,,, 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2. Identify the relationship between the Steel Stock and Socio_economic index ② Steel stock by goods ＝ f （ GDP per capita, POP, Const ? ? ? ） 3. Future estimation ③ 3 Assumption of exogenous variables (trade, tech_parameters)

Steel input to f inal demand goods Steel Flow (100 =input to I_S sector) Including extraction I n t e r m e d i a t e F i n a l I _ S C N S F M P O M E E L E M V H O T N O M F O T H t o t a l C G D H O U I M P E X P t o t a l O M N 1 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 0 2 . 3 2 . 3 I _ S 1 7 . 0 2 8 . 4 2 8 . 4 2 . 7 1 6 . 0 3 . 7 1 . 0 9 7 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 7 . 8 3 0 . 9 C N S 0 . 1 0 . 1 2 5 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 2 5 . 5 F M P 0 . 2 1 0 . 3 4 . 8 4 . 7 1 . 9 1 . 5 0 . 2 0 . 8 5 . 2 2 9 . 5 1 . 1 0 . 6 2 . 1 1 . 9 1 . 5 O M E 0 . 1 1 . 3 0 . 2 8 . 1 1 . 7 0 . 7 0 . 2 0 . 3 1 . 9 1 4 . 4 1 3 . 6 1 . 5 4 . 1 1 1 . 8 2 2 . 8 Other 100% E L E 0 . 1 0 . 5 1 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 5 2 . 6 1 . 9 1 . 2 0 . 9 2 . 1 4 . 3 Manufacture 90% Products M V H MVH 1 1 . 5 0 . 1 0 . 6 1 2 . 3 3 . 5 4 . 8 0 . 6 6 . 9 1 4 . 6 MVH 80% O T N 0 . 6 1 . 5 2 . 0 1 . 4 0 . 0 0 . 5 1 . 5 2 . 4 Other Trans. ELE 70% O M F 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 5 1 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 7 Machine 60% E n v i r o n . Machine 50% S c r a p O 1 . 4 1 . 4 2 . 2 4 . 2 0 . 8 3 . 0 0 . 5 0 . 2 0 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 7 2 . 6 40% S c r a p I 2 7 . 8 9 Metal 30% Products 20% CNS 10% CNS 0% 4 Sector Goods

I dentif y the relationship between the Steel Stock and Socio_economic index (CHN) C V L B L D C A R S H P T R S M C N 0 . 9 0 . 9 N 0 . 8 0 . 8 H C N 0 . 7 H 0 . 7 n i C a n t ) 0 . 6 i i 0 . 6 P p ) P a A P A 0 . 5 C C 0 . 5 A C r / C r e n e p 0 . 4 / 0 . 4 o p k t n ( k c o o c t 0 . 3 0 . 3 t o （ t S S l 0 . 2 0 . 2 e l e e t e t S 0 . 1 0 . 1 S 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 G D P p e r C A P ( 2 0 0 0 U S D ) Steel Stock per Capita increases in proportion to increase of GDP per Capita => Steel Stock per Capita = a* GDP/ CAP + b 5

Assumption of trade, f uture GDP I r o n O r e P i g i r o n C r u d e s t e e l ← Net import rate to domestic input C A R S H P M C N O T H ↓ GDP 1 5 0 % ) % 1 6 ( A k a s h i ( 2 0 0 8 ) t 1 0 0 % u I E O 0 8 1 4 p n i ) G S 5 0 % D 1 2 c i S P W C t U s 0 R I T E e 0 % 1 0 0 0 m 2 o d 8 n - 5 0 % o l / l i t b 6 r ( o - 1 0 0 % P p D 4 m G i t - 1 5 0 % e 2 N Export 0 - 2 0 0 % 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 Net import rate is fixed to without large change : the rate in 2005 6 with large change : average rate of past 5 years

Steel Stock in CHN 1 6 1 0 USA 1 4 C A R S H P T R S ) n 8 o Japan 1 2 T . l Italy i 1 0 b M C N B L D C V L 6 ( Germany k 8 c o t 4 U.K s 6 l e e 4 France t 2 S China 2 0 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 1 9 6 01 9 7 01 9 8 01 9 9 02 0 0 02 0 1 02 0 2 02 0 3 0 ＜ Stock total ＞ ・ 2.02 bil ton (2005) ， 9.64 bil ton (2030) ． ・ BLD = 53.6 ％， MCN = 29.8 ％． (From 2005, total of top 2 = 80 ％ ） ＜ Steel stock per capita ＞ ・ 1.5 ton per capita (2005) ， 6.6 ton per capita (2030) ， ・ The serial changes = same as those of Japan and Italy as they were 40 7 years ago

Production and I nvestment C A R S H P T R S M C N B L D O T H C V L 1 4 1 4 ） ） n n 1 2 1 2 o o t t . . l l i i M M 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 （ （ t 8 8 n n o i e t m c t u s 6 6 d e o v r n p i l l e 4 e 4 e e t t S S 2 2 0 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 ・ Steel production: 1.22 bil. ton （ 2030, 3.3 times of 2005 ） =World steel production in 2006 ・ Other= 28.2 ％， Buildings=27.7 ％， Machinery= 26.8 ％， ・ Steel investment: 0.84 bil. ton （ 2030 ） , export of CAR is large. 8

Scrap generation C A R S H P T R S M C N B L D O T H C V L 1 0 ） n 9 o t OTH: not accumulated as . l i 8 stock. Consumption = Scrap ． M 0 The shares of OTH 0 7 1 & MCN are large. （ n 6 o i t a 5 r e n e 4 g 1 2 0 MCN: shorter lifetime < W o r l d s c r a p i m p o r t t o t a l p 3 a r CVL(30yr), BLD(25yr). Scrap c S c r a p c o n s u m p t i o n i n C H N 1 0 0 S 2 ） n generation from stock is o S c r a p i m p o r t t . 1 l i large. 8 0 M （ 0 t r o 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 p 6 0 m i p a r c 4 0 Is it possible that scrap S demand is supplied by 2 0 scrap generation within China? 0 9 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 4

Scenario analysis of recycle rate of scrap S c r a p c o n s u m p t i o n f o r c r u d e s t e e l p r o d u c t i o n C u r r e n t c a s e ( C R ) : 1 5 ％ a t c u r r e n t l e v e l U p c a s e ( U R ) ： i n c r e a s e u p t o 4 5 ％ b y 2 0 1 5 s a m e a s J a p a n ’ s r a t e S c r a p c o n s u m p t i o n （ C R ) S c r a p c o n s u m p t i o n （ U R ） R e c y c l i n g R a t e （ C R ） R e c y c l i n g R a t e U P ） 8 8 0 ） n o I n t h e “ C u r r e n t c a s e ” , t l 7 7 0 i ) s c r a p g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s M % ( 0 6 6 0 0 o m o r e t h a n s c r a p i 1 t （ a r c o n s u m p t i o n , s o r e c y c l i n g n 5 5 0 g o i n t i l r a t e d o e s n ’ t i n c r e a s e ． p c 4 4 0 m y u c s e r I n t h e “ U p c a s e ” , s c r a p n o 3 3 0 p c a r c o n s u m p t i o n w o u l d b e a b l e p c a 2 2 0 S r t o b e s u p p l i e d w i t h i n C h i n a . c S B u t h i g h r e c y c l i n g l e v e l s o f 1 1 0 o v e r 7 0 % w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d . 0 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 10