From Warsaw to Paris Negotiating Global Climate Change Expert Talk - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development From Warsaw to Paris – Negotiating Global Climate Change Expert Talk at the Cairo House Dr. Camilla Bausch 1 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Ecologic Institute-Science & Policy for a Sustainable World N o t - f o r - p r o f i t t h i n k t a n k f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l research, policy analysis, consultancy Founded in 1995 Offices e.g. in Berlin, Brussels, Washington DC Independent, non-partisan Interdisciplinary team, more than 140 people February 2014 2

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Who do we work for primarily? • • International National • UNEP • Ministries & agencies at national & subnational level • OECD • Expert commissions of the • Ministries & agencies of German Parliament different European countries (Bundestages) • Non Governmental • Europe Organizations • European Commission • Universities • European Parliament • Foundations • European Environmental • Environmental organisations Agency February 2014 3

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Why are we meeting today? 4 February 2014 Source: IPCC AR5 WGI (2013)

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development O u t c o m e s o f W a r s a w Milestones until Paris Emission Reduction Targets / Emission Gap NAMAs, Market & Non Market Mechanisms, (Framework for Various Approaches) 5 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development O u t c o m e s o f W a r s a w Milestones until Paris Emission Reduction Targets / Emission Gap NAMAs, Market & Non Market Mechanisms, (Framework for Various Approaches) 6 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development What did parties expect from Warsaw? Finance COP? Implementation COP? REDD+ COP? Certainly not • B r e a k t h r o u g h C O P • Ambition COP • Treaty COP 7 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development 8 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development H o w w e r e t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e Warsaw Climate Summit perceived in Egypt & wh 9 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Implementation COP Warsaw REDD+ Framework • addresses methodo-logical questions, institutional arrangements and results-based finance (GER pledged 12 Mio €) Warsaw international mechanism on loss & damage • Different from adaptation? • Enhance knowledge, action, dialogue; support by developed countries only „requested“; 2016 review • ENB: institutional arrangements „proved to be one of the most contentious of the conference“ Future regime - timeline 10 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Outcomes of Warsaw Milestones until Paris Emission Reduction Targets / Emission Gap NAMAs, Market & Non Market Mechanisms, (Framework for Various Approaches) 11 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Since 2005 question: What is the future? UNFCCC UNFCCC protocol, another legal protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed instrument or an agreed New Protocol? New Protocol? adopted: 1992 adopted: 1992 outcome with legal force outcome with legal force in force: 1994 in force: 1994 implemented from 2020 implemented from 2020 CP2 CP2 CP1 Kyoto Protocol CP1 Kyoto Protocol 2013-20xx? 2013-20xx? 2008-2012 adopted: 1997 2008-2012 adopted: 1997 in force: 2005 in force: 2005 CP2 CP2 2013-2020! 2013-2020! CP3 NO 12 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Changes in the world … (2020 BAU) UNEP 2013: „In 2010, in absolute levels, developing countries accounted for about 60 percent of global greenhouse gas Emissions“ Populaton in 2020 Source: Malte Meinshausen, 2011 13 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development … are reflected in negotiations CBDR&RC under KP: • Binding country specific commitments for AI countries (see Annex B) Bali • NAMAs Durban • Efforts by all parties 14 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Underlying issues to be taken into account 1 st CP of KP ending Greater Greater involve- involve- ment of all ment of all Changing the major major AI / NAI logic emiters, emiters, including including Changes in countries’ China and China and per capita & absolute the US the US emissions Shift of political & economic power centres in the world 15 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Or parties will fight in the plenary – e.g.: 16 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Negotiations: a short overview over the last years 2007 – 2009 ( Bali Roadmap) • Mandate & negotiations on post-2012 process leading up to Copenhagen (CPH) • Taking note of Copenhagen Accord, no treaty; some pledges 2010 – 2012 (Post Copenhagen) • Post-CPH recovery process via Cancun • “Restart” in Durban (ADP, 2 nd CP) • Doha established 2 Workstreams: WS1: Vision & structure of the new 2015 agreement (to be implemented 2020) WS2: Enhancing pre-2020 ambition • February 2014 17

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Current context for 2015 negotiations World has changed since 1992 – AI/NAI divide not as relevant or useful as before UNFCCC process has not enough to show for two  decades of implementation and negotiation Economic situation less favorable than in CPH run-up  (2007/8) Domestic politics of some key players have not changed  (for the good) Media (and thus public) attention on climate change is low  Signs of action being taken at the national/regional level  Cost of renewable energy has come down significantly (it  can be done) Climate science has stronger evidence of change and its  speed 18 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development COP 19 negotiations on WS1 Much debate, little progress = parties far apart Some examples: • Global adaptation goal – e.g. pro G77/CH – determined by estimating adaption needs – others stressed technical difficulty of this • Mitigation commitments – what kind of differentiation? CBDR! Only w/ provision of means? Historical responsibility (IPCC to develop methodology?)? only domestic commitments w/out offsets? • GCF windows – e.g. for IPR? 19 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development Non exhaustive list – co-chairs proposal Institutional arrangements : ways of building on and strengthening them; Differentiation : ways of reflecting; Commitments : ways of characterizing them; Mitigation : putting forward intended nationally determined commitments & of considering ambition, equity and fairness…; Adaptation : global goal; strengthening implementation of NAPs…; Finance: enhancing mobilization, scaling up, predictability & delivery of climate finance; Technology : addressing barriers & enabling environments…; Transparency : enhancing MRV of actions and support; developing accounting rules; Capacity building, compliance and periodic review 20 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development COP 19 decision on WS1 ADP to further elaborate „elements for a draft negotiation text“ in 2014 COP invites „all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions “ Developed countries „urged“ to provide support for contributions 21 February 2014

Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu An International Think Tank for Environment and Development UN regime – upcoming issues in 2014 (2015) from March:ADP develops elements of the new agreement April : Ambition Review (KP): submissions June: KP ministerial; ADP ministerial September: UN SG High level Meeting COP20: ADP considers elements of the new agreement ADP ministerial Ministerial dialogue on finance ADP identifies information from parties for understanding their proposed commitments 2015 Parties propose contributions „well in advance“ of COP21 (1st quarter); before May: Negotiating Text 22 February 2014