World Climate: Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement
Agenda 1. Introduction and schedule 2. Assign Roles 3. The World Climate Negotiation 4. Debrief and your feedback
Climate Change: Carbon Cycle 3
Climate Change: Greenhouse Gases 4
Actual CO 2 Emissions vs. IPCC Assumptions Emissions exceed IPCC Worst-case Scenario: 2010: CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 9 9.14 GtC Actual Emissions 8 (GtC/year) IPCC Worst Case 7 (A1FI) IPCC Emissions 6 Scenarios 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 US Global Change Research Program: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf 2008-2009 data: Manning et al. (2010), Nature Geoscience . Vol. 3; June, 376-377. 2010: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html
Atmospheric CO 2 2011: 392 ppm 40% above pre-industrial http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Ramifications of Increased Atmospheric CO2 Rising atmospheric temperatures Rising sea levels (more H2O, warm H2O expands Shoreline destabilization More extreme weather patterns/fluctuations Feedback loops – i.e sea ice, permafrost Ocean acidification and current changes Biological changes – ranges, timing 7
What can we do?? Mitigation: efforts to reduce and/or prevent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Adaptation: Adjustments that society/environment makes to limit negative effects of climate change UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change COP: Conference of the Parties 8
What is the UNFCCC/COP? UNFCCC Conference of the Parties – the decision making body of the Convention COP Conference – Annual, formal meeting of the Convention to assess progress and make decisions 9
What is a World Climate Simulation? https:/www.climateinteractive.org/world-climate-project/ 10
Purpose of World Climate Simulation To improve understanding of important climate dynamics To help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer- reviewed science
Process Introduce yourselves to members of your delegation Read Briefing Memo for your nation or bloc 15 minutes — Speed Research! Look up participating countries, involvement in climate change mitigation, role in global policy
Are these terms familiar? 2 Degrees 350.org/350 ppm 14
0 ° C 1.0 ° C 2.0 ° C 3.0 ° C 4.0 ° C 5.0 ° C 0 ° F 1.8 ° F 3.6 ° F 5.4 ° F 7.2 ° F 9.0 ° F IPCC AR4
0 ° C 1.0 ° C 2.0 ° C 3.0 ° C 4.0 ° C 5.0 ° C 6.0 ° C 5.3 ° C 0 ° F 1.8 ° F 3.6 ° F 5.4 ° F 7.2 ° F 9.0 ° F 10.8 ° F 3.5 ° C 7.4 ° C 9.5 ° F 6.3 ° F 13.3 ° F MIT Joint Program on Global Change (Sokolov et al. 2009, Journal of Climate) Projected mean temp increase by 2100 under BAU
Welcome Delegates UN Climate Summit
Our Global Task Manage the Unavoidable and Avoid the Unmanageable
Consider this: Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize GHG levels by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2 ° C above preindustrial levels. Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation fund to aid less developed nations.
Process: Part II Begin to formulate your negotiating strategy What are your vital interests? What is politically feasible in your nation/bloc? What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them? 20
Task 1: Emissions Each delegation will set its own fossil fuel emissions targets. You will set: – In what year will GHG emissions in your bloc stop growing (if any)? – In what year (if desired), will your GHG emissions begin to fall? – If emissions will fall, at what rate (% per year)? REDD policies: Deforestation : 0 – 1 scale. 1 continues BAU deforestation path, 0 gradually eliminates deforestation over coming decades. Afforestation : 0 – 1 scale. 0 = no new area set aside for afforestation; 1 = maximum feasible afforestation area.
Task 2: Burden Sharing We are creating the “ UN Global Fund for Mitigation and Adaptation ” for Disaster relief Food and water Immigration and refugees Mitigation — Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals Total cost is $100 Billion per year (ramping up to that level by 2020) How much will you contribute? How much should others contribute? Terms?
Proposal Form Region: ____________ CO 2 Emissions growth stop year: _______ CO 2 Emissions decline start year: _______ Fractional rate of decline (%/year): ______ REDD+ (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation and land Degradation)_______ India, Other Developed, Other Developing only: (1 = no reduction from BAU; 0 = max reduction) Afforestation (net new forest area) _______ All nations/regions: (0 = no new afforestation area; 1 = maximum feasible) Your region ’ s contribution to fund for mitigation and adaptation ($B/year): _______
After you prepare your proposal 2 minute plenary presentation by representative of each delegation describing their emissions proposal, their Fund commitment and why. Designate a representative to give your Bloc ’ s speech.
Proposal Summary Contribution New to (or Draw Afforestation Annual REDD Emissions Emissions on) Fund Area Emissions (1 = BAU; Growth Reduction ($ Billion/yr) Reduction 0 = zero (0-1 [max Stop Year Start Year feasible]) emissions) (%/year) Developed NA Countries Developing Countries Less Developed Example 2075 2085 1.0%/year 0.8 0.1 $10 B/yr
Debrief Round 1
Lobbying Session Take 15 minutes outside the plenary hall – mingling among groups Discuss ways to meet needs/fulfill global obligations 30
Round 2 Debrief Round 2
Policymaker Mental Models “ Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties. ” – Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica, Sept 2008 (Named to lead UNFCCC, May 2010)
Impact of 1 Meter SLR
1 Meter
Head of State Meeting, Copenhagen, Dec 2009 “ If there is no sense of mutuality in this process, it is going to be difficult for us to ever move forward in a significant way. ” — President Barack Obama “ People tend to forget where it is from. In “ Let us suppose 100 percent reduction, the past 200 years of industrialization that is, no CO 2 in the developed countries developed countries contributed more anymore. Even then, with the [target of] than 80 percent of emissions. Whoever two degrees, you have to reduce carbon created this problem is responsible for the emissions in the developing countries. catastrophe we are facing. ” That is the truth. ” — Chinese deputy foreign minister He Yafei — Chancellor Angela Merkel. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,692861,00.html
A Sense of Urgency… UNFCCC timeline Future of COP/UNFCCC COP21 40
HOW WE GOT HERE Parties Kyoto New Copenhagen decide to Protocol UNFCC mandate to fails to submit their adopted; write C Annex I vs. replace own agreement Non-Annex I Kyoto contributions Created by 2015 for put into Protocol during 2015 2020 (ADP) practice (INDCs) COP15 2009 COP17 2011 Rio 1992 COP3 1997 COP19 2013
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Debrief Now that you have experienced this level of global negotiation, what do you feel called to do? What were your assumptions at the beginning and how were they changed as the simulation went on? 43
Role of World Climate Simulation in the Classroom: What potential benefits/downsides do you see with this classroom activity? 44
Thank you! For more information: climateinteractive.org
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