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1 Friday, 21 May 2010 2 Friday, 21 May 2010 Energy; Climate; - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 Friday, 21 May 2010 2 Friday, 21 May 2010 Energy; Climate; Action: What Next in a World of Denial? Chris Rapley Director Science Museum Prof. Climate Science - UCL Earth Sciences Visiting Prof. Imperial College 19 th May 2010 3 Friday,


  1. 1 Friday, 21 May 2010

  2. 2 Friday, 21 May 2010

  3. Energy; Climate; Action: What Next in a World of Denial? Chris Rapley Director Science Museum Prof. Climate Science - UCL Earth Sciences Visiting Prof. Imperial College 19 th May 2010 3 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  5. Earth System Geosphere Humanity Atmosphere Hydrosphere Biosphere Other Cryosphere Astronomical 5 Friday, 21 May 2010

  6. Bretherton Diagram WCRP IHDP IGBP 6 Friday, 21 May 2010

  7. Earth System • Most complex object in the Universe • Challenge to Study & Understand • No User’s Manual • Finite - No Spares! • “Ecosystem Services” Essential for Life • “Unhealthy State” - Driven by Humans 7 Friday, 21 May 2010

  8. • Global Average Temperature • Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide • Sea Level Rise • Arctic Summer Sea Ice Cover 5 Friday, 21 May 2010

  9. ORGANIC 9 Friday, 21 May 2010

  10. FOSSIL 9 Friday, 21 May 2010

  11. 3,500 people for 1h 11 Friday, 21 May 2010

  12. Energy Slaves 87 12 Friday, 21 May 2010

  13. We are all carbon slaves!! Impact of 8-day strike by petrol tanker drivers in Sep 2000 was to bring UK to a halt 13 Friday, 21 May 2010

  14. Carbon Reservoirs & Transfers 500GtC Energy - “Fleeting By-Product” 14 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  16. Transforming the Atmosphere 2100 CO 2 Now Friday, 21 May 2010

  17. Greenhouse Effect 30 o C 17 Friday, 21 May 2010

  18. Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 1500 GtC 6 o C Δ T 18 Friday, 21 May 2010

  19. A Pattern of Behaviour 19 Friday, 21 May 2010

  20. Stratospheric Surface Warming Cooling Ice Sheet Mass Changing Seasons Loss & Ecosystem Shifts 20 Friday, 21 May 2010

  21. Ranking of Years by Temperature 21 Friday, 21 May 2010

  22. Arctic Sea Ice Summer Minimum Extent 22 Friday, 21 May 2010

  23. Current Status 23 Friday, 21 May 2010

  24. 90% of Heat Imbalance       24 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  28. Attribution 28 Friday, 21 May 2010

  29. Sea Level Rise “Global Thermometer” <2003 - thermal expansion and ice melt >2003 - ice melt - polar ice sheets / glaciers 29 Friday, 21 May 2010

  30. mysteries still to solve 30 Friday, 21 May 2010

  31. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007 Climate Warming Unequivocal Climate forcing primarily Human Serious - Water, Food Supply, Ecosystems, Global Stability 31 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  35. 5000y ago 35 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  38. • Climate has always changed • Greenhouse Effect is 30 o C • Natural carbon balance disturbed by humans • Increasing GHGs will increase warming • Warming will alter atmospheric circulation and climates • Pattern of evidence reveals human component of change • Modern world assumes the climate we inherited 6 Friday, 21 May 2010

  39. Safe Climate Change? 450ppm CO 2 equivalent gives a 50:50 chance of 2 o C 1000GtC limit 39 Friday, 21 May 2010

  40. Human Carbon Emissions 8 Friday, 21 May 2010

  41. Decarbonising Humankind 41 Friday, 21 May 2010

  42. Decarbonising Humankind $ Improve Global Equity Maintain Social Stability - Flourish Transition to Low-C World 42 Friday, 21 May 2010

  43. A global revolution is needed in the ways energy is supplied and used 43 Friday, 21 May 2010

  44. Partnership Required Technology Finance Governance Permissions 12 Friday, 21 May 2010

  45. Human Ingenuity Unbounded? 45 Friday, 21 May 2010

  46. Cost-Benefit Analyses Cost of Inaction Exceeds the Cost of Action McKinsey II 11 Friday, 21 May 2010

  47. $20-65Tn to 2050 0.4-1.5%GDP Friday, 21 May 2010

  48. Leadership and Governance 48 Friday, 21 May 2010

  49. Leadership and Governance 49 Friday, 21 May 2010

  50. Governance is critical • Scramble - Events Outpace Actions • Blueprints - Actions Outpace Events 50 Friday, 21 May 2010

  51. “Blueprints” stabilises at 630 ppm CO 2 e “Scramble” passes 1000 ppm CO 2 e in 2100 Source: MIT Friday, 21 May 2010

  52. What people believe matters 15 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  60. Evidence is not the issue 23 Friday, 21 May 2010

  61. People react to information based on their deeply held beliefs They endorse the position shared by those with whom they identify and whose esteem they seek 24 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  63. Climate Science is Uncertain Population Must Be Controlled Nuclear Power is Essential Don’t let UN run the Planet! 26 Friday, 21 May 2010

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  65. Climate Science is Uncertain Population Must Be Controlled Nuclear Power is Essential Don’t let UN run the Planet! 28 Friday, 21 May 2010

  66. • Denial - closed-minded - position staked out in advance - confirmation bias - driven by ideology or religious belief • Scepticism - open-minded - examine claims - consider evidence - follow the facts 33 Friday, 21 May 2010

  67. Denial - closed-minded - position staked out in advance - confirmation bias - driven by ideology or religious belief Scepticism - open-minded - examine claims - consider evidence - follow the facts 33 Friday, 21 May 2010

  68. • Tribalism • Rules of Engagement • “Wild-West” of the Web • Sowers of Doubt • Positive vs Normative issues • Probability and Risk • Who to believe? 34 Friday, 21 May 2010

  69. Mode of Discussion Debate/Advocacy Dialogue • • assuming others have pieces assuming there is one right of the answer answer • • collaborative combative • • about finding common ground about winning • • listening to understand listening for flaws • • exploring assumptions defending assumptions • • discovering new possibilities pursuing your outcome 34 Friday, 21 May 2010

  70. Uniquely Vexed Issue • Evidence Complex & Technical • Disconnect • Inertias • Vested Interests • Inadequate Instruments and Institutions • Challenges foundations of modern world • Trust 35 Friday, 21 May 2010

  71. Science Needs to Address • Observations - What is happening? • Understanding - How and Why? • Prediction - What will happen Where/When? to underpin • Analysis - What could we do? • Ethics - What should we do? • Policy/Politics - What can/will we do? 71 Friday, 21 May 2010

  72. Also ... • Raise Interest • Deepen Understanding • Maintain vigilance over accuracy • Build Trust in Science and its Process 35 Friday, 21 May 2010

  73. Opinion Formers Really MAY BE REAL We need to take this seriously 36 Friday, 21 May 2010

  74. If the climate system were a bank, governments would have rescued it by now Kofi Annan following Hugo Chavez 37 37 Friday, 21 May 2010

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