From Th Theory to Practice: Exploring Sustainable Sol olution ons - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

From Th Theory to Practice: Exploring Sustainable Sol olution ons t to A o Africa’s D Develop opmental C Challenges !!!!!!!!!!!! F. Kwame Yeboah, Assistant Professor Thomas S. Jayne, University Foundation Professor Michigan State University Keynote speech at the 2 nd Annual Conference of African Graduate Student Association Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI March 25, 2017 ������������������������������������������ � �

Theories vs. Practice • Theories are • a set of principles or accepted facts on which practices of an activity are based. • based on knowledge/assumptions of the theorist about the phenomenon. • revised when new information become available. • most successful when underlying assumptions are consistent with reality • Development theories may not work if they are disconnected from Africa’s realities • Disconnection may come from • Theorist’s limited understanding of Africa’s context • Lack of feedback from recipients or provision of the wrong feedback for theory refinement.

Ke Key message • Sustainable solutions to African development challenges must recognize the changing economic landscape of Africa. • Emerging mega-trends shaping Africa’s development needs to be accounted for in our search for sustainable solutions • Sustainable solutions needs to be Africa-led, people-centered and inclusive, build on Africa’s strength, and environmentally friendly • African scholars have a role to • Translate theories into Africa’s development context • Provide feedback to strengthen the theory-practice nexus • Develop new models reflective of Africa’s development context

Afr Africa’s s Cha Changi nging ng Econo nomic Landsc ndscape pe

1. 1. Afri rica’s Ch Changing Eco conomic Lan andscap ape 1992 1984

1. 1. Afri rica’s Ch Changing Economi mic La Landscape 2011

1. Africa’s Changing Economic c Landscape • Significant improvement in monetary and non-monetary measure of poverty in SSA GDP per capita, constant 2011 US$ Mortality rates for children under 5 % of population living on less than years (%) US$1.90/day 4000 20 80 3000 15 60 2000 10 40 1000 5 20 0 0 0 1995 2015 1995 2015 1995 2013 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Rapid percentage growth in non-farm employment but farming remains largest single employer Sectoral employment shares of total jobs in FTE 60 54 49 48 50 47 47 % of total jobs in FTE 44 43 40 38 37 35 34 34 30 23 19 20 17 14 9 9 10 0 Ghana Nigeria Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zambia (2012/13) (2012/13) (2010/11) (2012/13) (2011/12) (2012) Farming Off-farm AFS

Caveats • Economic growth unevenly distributed across countries • Significant challenges remain • Increases in absolute number of poor from 280m to 330m between 1995 and 2013 • SSA lags behind other regions at all education levels and rising concerns about quality • I in 12 children dies before their 5 th birthday Changes demand critical review of the applicability of existing theories Africa’s present realities.

(II) Emerging mega-trends shaping Africa’s development needs to be accounted for in our search for sustainable solutions

a. a. Rap apid id Popula latio tion Gr Growth th an and Youth th Bul ulge e Population projections for SSA and the rest of the world major trends, which generally indicate that agricultural are now underway in much of the region. At the same time, major challenges are looming on the horizon. Subsequent chapters of the 2016 AASR examine these trends and challenges in detail. This chapter ends with a discussion of private partners seeking to achieve their sustainable development goals through encouraging the region’s nascent agricultural This section highlights 10 major trends: (i) Africa’s mushrooming population growth; (ii) urbanization and urban population growth; (iii) shifts in the labor force toward non-farm employment; (iv) generally positive agricultural productivity growth rates and associated poverty Source: United Nations (2016) Notes: The estimated population for SSA was 12.3 percent reduction; (v) land degradation; (vi) rising land prices; (vii) of the world’s population in 2015, and is projected to com- increasing climate variability; (viii) the region’s increasing prise 21.7 percent in 2050 and 34.0 percent in 2100. dependence on imported staple foods; (ix) improved market access conditions for smallholder farmers; and (x) Source: changing farmland ownership and farm size distributions. These trends present both challenges and opportunities, as summarized in this chapter and addressed in more Another salient demographic trend, unlike any other depth in the various chapters. expanding rural population between 2015 and 2050 (Figure 1.3). Rural Africa is expected to have nearly 60 percent more people in 2050 than it has today. T oday, SSA accounts for 950 million people, roughly 12 percent of the world’s population. This share will rise to Rapid population growth, including in rural areas, may 31 percent by 2050 and to 34 percent by the end of this be projected to affect the region’s agricultural sectors in century as the region’s population is projected to quadruple several important ways. First, rapid population growth will to roughly 4 billion people (Figure 1.1). As Africa comprises put rising pressure on African food systems to feed its fast an increasing share of the world’s population, African values and the growth of land markets, especially in areas economically, politically, demographically, and culturally. of favorable market access, as more people seek land not only for farming but for housing and other non-farm The region’s rapid population growth is due to rising life purposes. Third, as fjnite land becomes more populated, it expectancy, declines in death rates, particularly of children, will be increasingly unlikely that young people can expect to inherit land, causing migration and demographic and labor educated urban women. But compared to other regions of market shifts that are already well underway in relatively densely populated areas, but not yet in others. have remained high, leading to the “youth bulge” that the region is now experiencing (Filmer & Fox, 2014). T oday, 62 percent of Africa’s population is below the age of 25 years. Population is growing especially rapidly in Africa’s urban Africa is the only region of the world where the population areas as shown in T able 1.2. By 2050, the majority of of under 15s is continuing to grow (Figure 1.2). the population in most African countries is likely to be in urban areas. But urbanization is proceeding at a highly variable pace (Bocquier, 2005; Potts, 2012). Over the past

Lo Loomin ming Emp Emplo loyme ment Challeng hallenge 11 million people to enter labor market each year [80+] [75-79] Male [70-74] [65-69] Will Africa’s youthful labor Female [60-64] force yield a demographic [55-59] [50-54] “dividend” or “time bomb”? [45-49] [40-44] [35-39] [30-34] [25-29] [20-24] [15-19] [10-14] [5-9] 62% of people <25 years old [0-4] -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12 Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

b. Rising Food Demand and Reliance on Food Imports • Growing demand for food SS SSA To Total Food Imports fr from 7 to 40 billion USD (2 (2001-2015 2015) • Population growth and urbanization (in (intra a SSA trad ade e fr from m 1 to 10 billio illion USD) Rising incomes and diet transformation • 50 (Tschirley et al., 2015; Hollinger and Staatz, 2015) 45 • Rising reliance on food import 40 • SSA’s food import bill ~ $40 billion (AfDB, 35 2015) USD Billions 30 25 • Great potential for multiplier effects 20 and job creation if rising food consumption requirements can be 15 satisfied by local production rather 10 than imports. 5 0 Will Africa be able to feed itself? How? 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SSA Imports from non-SSA SSA's imports from SSA

c. Land Scarcity and Changing Farm Structure % of National Landholdings held by Urban Households 32.7% 35% • Rising interest in Africa’s arable land 30% 26.8% Meteoric rise of medium-scale farms (5-20 ha) • 25% 22.0% 22.0% Urban-based HHs own between 10-30% of • 18.3% 20% 16.8% national agricultural landholdings (DHS data) 15% 10.9% 11.8% 11.2% 10% • Rising land prices and increasing land scarcity 5% 0% • Will land scarcity foreclose smallholder 2008 2009 2004 2010 2010 2004/2005 2010 2007 2013/2014 agriculture? Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various years between 2004-2014.

d. . Cl Climate Ch Change • SSA projected to suffer greater effects from climate change Reductions in annual rainfall and higher temperature in arid regions (IPCC, 2007) • • Impact on agriculture uncertain • Greater variability in agricultural production • Possible decline in crop productivity (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010) • How will Africa’s agricultural systems adapt to CC? 15

Upshot • Megatrends may be are not inevitable but subject to public action challenging are by no means inevitable. • Success of future development efforts depends on how well the solutions respond to mega-trends