food demands and climate change Claudia Ringler, Tingju Zhu and Mark - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Water scarcity in the context of growing food demands and climate change Claudia Ringler, Tingju Zhu and Mark Rosegrant Environment and Production Technology Division Snowmass, July 28, 2011

OUTLINE 1. Drivers of Change Affecting Water and Food 2. Climate, Water and Food Linkages 3. Economic Growth, Water and Food 4. Other relevant water work 5. How to Move Forward

DRIVERS OF CHANGE AFFECTING WATER & FOOD

Water & Food Availability are (Adversely) Affected by a Series of Global Drivers 1. Population growth & urbanization 2. Economic growth and changing diets 3. Higher energy prices (increased HP demand) 4. Growing demand for non-food crops (biofuels) 5. Growing water demand for domestic/ industrial/ environmental uses, affecting irrigation water supply (~80% of withdrawals) 6. Declining water quality 7. Climate variability and climate change 8. Slowing investments in agriculture & water (some change in Sub-Saharan Africa) 9. Unsustainable use & poor management

Population growth (%/yr), by region (2000-2050) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Developed LAC Asia Middle East SSA Source: UN (2009). 9.2 bn (or 10 bn) people by 2050, 86% of whom will live in less developed countries and 70% in rapidly growing urban areas

Projected changes in per capita water supply (m 3 /cap) 30000 2000 25000 2050-NCAR 20000 2050-CSIRO 15000 10000 5000 0 CWANA SSA LAC NAE ESAP Source: IFPRI IMPACT (2009)

Growing Meat Demand, mostly outside NA & Europe 200 180 160 million metric tons 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 SSA CWANA LAC ESAP NAE 2000 2025avg 2050avg Source: IFPRI (2010).

Share of maize production used as animal feed 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Uganda World USA China France EU average Source: FAOSTAT

Changes in calorie availability per capita/day, example China 4000 3500 Other calories 3000 Fruits/Veggies 2500 Sugars 2000 Veg Oils 1500 Starches 1000 Animal products 500 Cereals 0 1990 2007 Source: FAOSTAT (2010).

Changes in calorie availability per capita/day 4000 4000 3500 3500 CHINA USA 3000 3000 Other calories Other calories Fruits/Veggies Fruits/Veggies 2500 2500 Sugars Sugars 2000 2000 Veg Oils Veg Oils 1500 1500 Starches Starches 1000 1000 Animal products Animal products 500 500 Cereals Cereals 0 0 1990 2007 1990 2007 4000 3500 Uganda 3000 Other calories Fruits/Veggies 2500 Sugars 2000 Veg Oils 1500 Starches Animal products 1000 Cereals 500 0 1990 2007 Source: FAOSTAT (2010).

The Water Footprint differs significantly by commodity  1 kg of beef: 14-15,000 liters  1 liter of milk: 880 liters  1 liter of wine: 1000 liters  1 liter of coffee: 900 liters  1 liter of tea: 128 liters  1 kg of cereals: 1000-5000 liters Source: Water Footprint Network

Biofuels — long-term increase in food prices of approx 30 percent 160 actual biofuel growth, 2000-2007 150 continuation of 140 1990-2000 biofuel growth 130 120 110 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: IFPRI (2008).

Growing non-irrigation water demands 400 350 300 250 200 Domestic 150 Industrial 100 50 0 2011 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Source: IFPRI (2008).

CLIMATE, WATER AND FOOD LINKAGES: DECLINING SUPPLIES AND INCREASING DEMAND

Data Flow and Basic Modeling Strategy 14

Modeled Natural & Artificial Processes 15

Loss of Grain Production Potential due to Water Scarcity, Developing Countries 2025 2050 Business as 1995 BAU Usual 0 -100 million mt -200 -300 -400 -500 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Business as Usual Projections

Climate Change: Change in Annual Precipitation (1961-1990 to 2050) Source: IFPRI (2009).

Climate Change: Change in Potential ET (1961-1990 to 2050) Source: IFPRI (2009).

Change in Internal Renewable Water, by Region 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 2050-no CC 8,000 2050-CSIRO 6,000 2050-MIROC 4,000 2,000 - CWANA SSA LAC ESAP NAE Source: IFPRI (2011).

Change in effective rainfall, PET, and Runoff, Example, Yellow River Basin 30 25 CSIRO-A1b MIROC-A1b 20 15 10 5 0 Peff PET Runoff -5 -10 -15 Source: IFPRI (2011).

Change in effective rainfall, PET, and Runoff, Example, Nile River Basin 30.0 CSIRO-A1b 25.0 MIROC-A1b 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Peff PET Runoff -5.0 -10.0 Source: IFPRI (2011).

Change in irrigation water demand under climate change 7.0 CSIRO-A1b 6.0 MIROC-A1b 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - 2025 2050 Source: IFPRI (2011).

ECONOMIC GROWTH, WATER AND FOOD: GROWTH INCREASES SCARCITY

Core Research Questions on “Water and Growth” … What are the economic growth levels that can be sustained given today’s water productivity? … To what extent can gains in efficiency and water productivity enable higher levels of growth?

Growth scenarios to outline water requirement dynamics by sector and by country High-level description ▪ High growth estimates – Developed (+2.4)/ middle income (4.8%) and High Overall assumptions developing countries (+5.6%) growth and methods – BRIC 1 countries estimated separately ▪ Use of per-country (5.2%/+3.9%/8.4%/9.1%) forecasts until 2040, linear extrapolation of trend from 2040- ▪ Consensus estimates for most likely future GDP 2050 performance Medium Growth – ▪ Developed economies (2.1%), middle income (4.0%) growth Differentiation scenarios (default) and developing countries (4.3%) between – Brazil (4.4%), Russia (3.4%), India (5.9%) and China developing/middle (6.8%) income and developed countries ▪ ▪ Minimum growth forecasts Growth assumptions – Developed (1.6%) /middle income (3.9%) and also reflected in food Low growth developing countries (3.3%) demand – BRIC 1 countries estimated separately (2.9%/3.2%/5.9%/6.8%), Source: McKinsey (2010). 1 Brazil, Russia, India, China

Productivity scenarios established by sector Water Productivity scenarios ―Grey‖ productivity ―Blue‖ Productivity Business-as-usual ▪ Domestic sector shows ▪ ▪ No water productivity Domestic sector shows moderate improvements in improvements achieved , high improvements in leakage reduction and water resulting reactive leakage reduction and water efficiency gains environmental behavior efficiency gains ▪ Irrigation, moderate ▪ ▪ Irrigation, gradual erosion of Majority of water improvements and small irrigation efficiency productivity potential expansion achieved in industry ▪ Only minor energy ▪ Industry, 50% of maximum ▪ efficiency gains reached High efficiency in irrigation water productivity levels Energy demand growing by achieved ▪ ~20% in OECD and +100% in Energy demand growing at Non-OECD countries, with ~19% in OECD and +110% in ▪ Energy demand increase at corresponding water use; Non-OECD ; high share of ~19% in OECD and +110% in energy mix shift to nuclear renewable energy Non-OECD countries; energy and thermo electrical power increasing from ~19% (2008) mix with slight shift towards generation as assumed be to 29% (2030) with biomass renewable energy mix , high IEA World Energy Outlook for produced from waste material share of conventional thermal "Current scenario“ or otherwise without water electric generation impacts Low water High water productivity productivity Source: McKinsey, IFPRI, GWI and IEA (2010).

A low-carbon energy mix impacts water productivity in terms of higher usage of biomass but also higher energy efficiency Water productivity scenarios Drivers of water Grey Low BAU Blue productivity under Carbon low-carbon growth Energy mix impacts Water impacts of optimizing ▪ Strong emphasis is on renewable for low-carbon energy energy generation accounting ▪ for >25% of energy sources On balance, a low- carbon ▪ Hydropower and biomass increase, energy scenario has slightly with increases in water use lower water productivity than BAU ▪ The water impacts of biomass Energy efficiency impacts (some irrigation) and ▪ Energy efficiency causes energy hydropower (evaporation) demand to increase at a lower pace, from reservoirs outweigh – Energy demand growing 0.7% water savings from efficiency p.a. (vs. 2.1% in BAU) gains ▪ Lower increase of water use from conventional energy High water Low water productivity productivity SOURCE: IFPRI, Team analysis