Food consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and land needs The - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Food consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and land needs The evidence from the UK Eric Audsley, Cranfield University, UK Matthew Brander, Ecometrica, UK Julia Chatterton, Cranfield University, UK Donal Murphy-Bokern, Independent researcher, Germany Catriona Webster, Ecometrica, UK Daniel Sandars, Cranfield University, UK Adrian Williams, Cranfield University, UK

Effects of the demitarian diet The evidence from the UK Eric Audsley, Cranfield University, UK Matthew Brander, Ecometrica, UK Julia Chatterton, Cranfield University, UK Donal Murphy-Bokern, Independent researcher, Germany Catriona Webster, Ecometrica, UK Daniel Sandars, Cranfield University, UK Adrian Williams, Cranfield University, UK

Background The „Cranfield‟ Study (Defra project IS0205) • Industry structure models • Soil, crop & livestock process models • Provides ability to address a wide range of questions

Breakdown of emissions - livestock

Breakdown of emissions - livestock

Breakdown of emissions - livestock

Breakdown of emissions - livestock

Agriculture sector structure models Ewe lambs Hill retained Pure bred hill Male Draft ewes lambs Longwool Halfbreds Rams Upland Cross bred Surplus Male ewes/ lambs lambs lambs Lowland Rams Downland Lowland Surplus Finished lambs lambs

Background An examination of the links between the UK food system and global environmental impacts – particularly in key eco-regions Consumption Nitrogen

Background “.. urge the UK Government to commit to achieving a 70% or more absolute reduction in food- related GHG emissions by 2050 and to set out how it intends to achieve these cuts… (taking) a global lead in developing and defining food security strategies that explicitly marry the goals of nutritional well-being with GHG mitigation”.

An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope for reduction by 2050 How low can we go? What do we know about current emissions – the baseline Reduction approaches Scenarios

Objectives Produce 1 st UK consumption-orientated GHG inventory of the UK 1. food system using a life cycle perspective 2. Create & explore scenarios of production and consumption 3. Explore how a 70% emissions reduction target for the supply chain might be reached by 2050?

Changes in Brazilian beef production and consumption between 1997 - 2004 Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA),

Interconnected commodity markets driving agriculture north Credit Aliança da Terra Source: Paula Fridman/Carbis, Business Week May 22, 2008

Part 1 UK and • Primary production Analyses of commodity regional food • Manufacture, distribution system GHG flows and • Preparation inventory consumption, • Land-use change Consumption Production Part 2 options options Food system scenarios Part 3 System scenario assessments, „Socolow‟s wedges

Commodity production • Data sources – FAOSTAT, Defra • Supply, production, imports and exports • GHG emissions for each commodity – Cranfield LCA model – Comparative LCA study – ADAS PAS 2050 – Literature – And finally by analogy

Pre-RDC GWP burdens by commodity group for UK Milk Vegetables & legumes Sugar Cereals Temperate & Mediterranean fruit Grapes & wine White meat Salad Crops Oil-based crops Red meat Exotic fruit Nuts, tea, coffee, cocoa Eggs Rice Fish

Land use change emissions attributable to UK food consumption Matthew Brander - Ecometrica

Why land use change is important • LUC is estimated to produce Share of Different Sectors in ~17% of total anthropogenic Total Anthropogenic GHG emissions (~8.5 GtCO 2 e/yr) Emissions in 2004 2.8% • Commercial agriculture is Waste and waste water one of the causes of land use 17.4% Energy supply change 25.9% Transport • The FAO State of the Residential and 13.5% commercial buildings World’s Forests 2009 Report Industry estimates ~58% of 13.1% Agriculture deforestation is caused by 19.4% 7.9% Forestry and commercial agriculture deforestation Our research task: to provide an inventory of UK food consumption-related land use change emissions

Distinction between direct and indirect land use change • Direct land use change: Soy on UK demand converted forest land • Indirect land use change: Displacement Displacement UK demand

Distinction between direct and indirect land use change • Just looking at direct LUC will miss part of the picture: UK demand Displacement Direct emissions = 0tCO 2 e Indirect emissions = 200tCO 2 e • Consideration of possible indirect effects helps to guide us to mitigation options which reduce total emissions (not just direct emissions) • Consideration of ILUC fits with aims of consumption-based accounting approach (looks at total effects of our consumption patterns)

6 steps to method 1. Calculate total LUC emissions per year (GtCO 2 e/yr) 2. Find the proportion of total LUC caused by commercial agriculture, including ranching (% of LUC) 3. Divide LUC emissions attributable to agriculture by total agricultural land area to derive LUC emissions per hectare (tCO 2 e/hectare) 4. Calculate land requirement for each food commodity consumed (hectares/tonne of commodity) 5. Multiply LUC factor (3.) by commodity land requirement (4.) to derive LUC emissions per tonne of commodity (tCO 2 e/tonne) 6. Multiply LUC factor per tonne of commodity by total quantity of commodity consumed in the UK (tCO 2 e/yr)

The “top - down” approach • Treats total LUC emissions as a single “pool” of emissions which are allocated to agricultural commodities. • All agricultural commodities are allocated a share of LUC emissions based on their land area requirements • Commodities which use a lot of land are allocated a larger share of LUC emissions per tonne of output (low land-requirement commodities are allocated a smaller share) • No double-counting of LUC emissions (as total LUC emissions are treated as a single pool)

Results • Total LUC emissions attributable to UK food consumption = ~90-100 million tCO 2 e/yr • ~38% of total UK food consumption emissions • ~2% of total LUC emissions attributable to commercial agriculture (UK = 0.9% of world population)

Results

Results

Results

Results – allocation to livestock • Livestock commodities are allocated a large share of emissions (89% of LUC emissions) using this method because they use a large area • Allocation by economic value points in the same direction – though smaller differences between livestock and crops • Livestock’s Long Shadow report estimates emissions from livestock land expansion in Brazil and Bolivia alone equals ~2.4 GtCO 2 per year (48% of total LUC emissions from commercial agriculture). • UK figures for livestock are expected to be high due to higher than average meat consumption.

Processing, manufacture and preparation inventory („post RDC‟) • Boundaries – Post RDC to cooking plus food waste management – Most manufacturing / processing included here – Enteric and sewage not included • Data sources – Defra Family Food & WRAP Surveys – BERR, MTP & BRE Energy use – Studies relating to PAS 2050 – Literature, e.g. Foster, Mila i Canals & Carlsson-Kanyama – CSR, e.g. Tesco – Theory • Modelling – Based on food & drink consumed not commodities

Main stages covered Retail Home RDC Storage Cook Waste Service Sector Processing Transport, maybe chilled

“Post RDC” total emissions • 66 Mt CO 2 e • cf . 86 pre-RDC • 80% home consumption • 20% eating out

Breakdown of main parts Manufacturing Packaging Distribution Retail Electricity Retail Refrigerants Retail Landfill Consumer travel Carrier bags etc Storage (energy) Storage (refrigerants) Cooking Washing up Landfill of food waste

An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope for reduction by 2050 How high are emissions? (M t CO2e) Pre-RDC GWP burdens by commodity group for UK Meat products Milk and milk products Milk Fresh and processed potatoes Vegetables & legumes Fresh and processed veg Sugar Other food and drink Cereals Beverages Fresh and processed fruit Temperate & Mediterranean fruit Carcase meat Grapes & wine Cereals and products White meat Soft drinks Fish Salad Crops Fats Oil-based crops Cheese Red meat Bread Confectionery Exotic fruit Eggs Nuts, tea, coffee, cocoa Alcoholic drinks Eggs Cakes, buns and pastries Rice Biscuits and crispbreads Flour Fish Sugar and preserves 66 86 101 Total food chain emission 253 UK inventory 660 UK consumption (excl. LUC) 748