The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Act (GGRA) Draft Plan
The Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act Maryland Law (“GGRA”): Reduce GHGs 25% by 2020 and 40% by 2030 120 Historic Goals 2006 Baseline MD GHG Emissions Accounting for Sequestration 100 80 25 by 20 (MMTCO2e) Final 2017 Emissions 60 40 by 30 40 20 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Maryland greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for sequestration. Note favorable weather drove additional reductions in 2017.
The GGRA Plan The GGRA requires MDE to develop a plan to meet the GHG goals. That plan draws upon existing programs across all levels of government, and new state programs. Maryland greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for sequestration. MDE projections from 2019 GGRA Draft Plan.
Major Mitigation Programs Electricity Supply Building Energy Use Renewable Portfolio Standard (current) EmPOWER Maryland Clean and Renewable Energy Standard (proposed) Compact Development Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) State Building Efficiency EO Short-lived Climate Pollutants Transportation HFC regulation Public Transit & other infrastructure Methane regulation Electric Vehicles: Clean Cars & ZEV Mandate Sustainable Materials Mgmt 50% ZEV Transit Buses by 2030 Smart Growth & Compact Development Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) could Carbon Sequestration fund & enable other measures. Forest Management Programs Healthy Soils Program
Electricity Supply Programs 70 Electricity strategy: incentivize clean energy and cap emissions from fossil energy. 60 Rooftop PV • CARES Utility Solar – Bill proposed for this session; 50 Offshore Wind MD Electricity Sources (TWh) example impacts in the 2019 Onshore Wind GGRA Draft Plan 40 Hydro – Builds upon existing RPS; 100% CARES Resource (eg Clean Electricity by 2040 CHP) 30 Imports • RGGI Municipal Solid Waste – Carbon cap on power plants 20 Oil and state investment in clean Natural Gas energy (10 states participate) 10 Coal – Growing to more states: NJ Nuclear renewed participation, VA 0 promulgated a reg (on hold), 2015 2020 2025 2030 and PA drafting reg now. Maryland electricity generation and imports in GGRA Draft Plan through 2030. CARES and RGGI reduce fossil generation and increase clean & renewable generation. **Analysis assumes no new nuclear or carbon capture before 2030**
Buildings Programs Buildings strategy: use efficiency to 500 counteract growth & convert heating systems to run on increasingly clean electricity. 400 Total Building Energy Consumption (tBtu) • Efficiency: – EmPOWER beyond 2023 300 – Achieve State Building Efficiency Goal – Achieve Compact Development 200 Goal • Electrification: 100 Reference (no new – Increase use of efficient electric programs) heat pumps for building heat, GGRA Draft Plan perhaps using EmPOWER 0 incentives. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Transportation Programs Transportation strategy : Reduce vehicle miles traveled AND deploy electric vehicles that run on increasingly clean electricity – Transit Investments – – Intercity Transportation Clean Cars Program & ZEV mandate – – Active Transportation (e.g., bike lanes) 50% ZEV Transit Buses by 2030 – – Compact Development Transportation and Climate Initiative Light Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled Light Duty Auto Sales 100 100% 90 90% 80% 80 Percent of New Sales Gasoline Billioin Miles per year 70% 70 Reference (no new Diesel 60% 60 programs) 50% 50 PHEV GGRA Draft Plan 40% 40 Electric 30% 30 Vehicle 20% 20 10% 10 0% 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Sequestration Programs Forest management, tree planting, and Healthy Soils programs (DNR & MDA) accelerate carbon sequestration in forests and agricultural soils, adding benefit on top of emission reduction programs. * Non Energy includes Agriculture, Waste Management, Industrial Process and Fossil Fuel Industry.
GGRA Draft Plan Employment Results • GGRA requires positive 14,000 economic impacts. 12,000 • The Draft Plan drives Job Gains from Draft GGRA Plan 10,000 substantial job gains. Job gains, counting transportation 8,000 infrastructure • Almost all of MD’s fossil investments Job gains, not counting fuel comes from out of 6,000 transportation infrastructure state. investments 4,000 • Investments that 2,000 reduce fossil fuel consumption drive 0 positive impacts for 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 MD’s economy. Large transportation projects drive substantial job gains in the near-term; investments in in-state clean energy and fuel-saving measures provide more 9 modest underlying gains. (Transportation gains dependent on Federal funding)
Long Term Goals MDE analyzed a scenario that achieves 80% reduction by 2050 (“Scenario 2”) MD Historical Inventory 100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMT Reference 80 (no new effort) 25% below 2006 Emissions 60 CO2e) 40% below 2006 GGRA Draft Plan Emissions 40 20 80% by 2050 Policy Scenario 2 80% below 2006 Emissions 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Important long-term measures included: renewable natural gas, other advanced biofuels, electric or other zero-emission heavy trucks and non-road vehicles.
Long Term Challenges Scenario 2 identified important long-term measures that should be re- evaluated as technologies mature, but are currently expensive. 15,000 Policy Scenario Job Impact Relative 10,000 GGRA Draft Plan 5,000 to Reference Case 0 -5,000 -10,000 80% by 2050 Scenario 2 economic Policy Scenario 2 impacts negative -15,000 after 2030. -20,000 2020 2030 2040 2050 These measures may be necessary for deeper reductions, and may be cost-effective when the time comes. In the meantime, the Draft Plan focuses on measures necessary for 2030.
Public Comment & Outreach • Read the GGRA Draft Plan out for comment now: • MDE holding series of public meetings around the state: – 12/3: Chesapeake College, Queenstown (Complete) – 12/17: MDE HQ, Baltimore (Complete) – 1/10: Frostburg State University, Frostburg (Complete) – 1/14: Charles County Govt Building, La Plata (Complete) – 1/29: Webinar (Complete) – 1/31: MDE HQ, Baltimore (Complete) – 2/12: Webinar – 3/4: Webinar Meeting details are in our website.
Contacts Chris Hoagland Climate Change Program Manager Maryland Department of the Environment chris.hoagland@maryland.gov Please email comments about the draft plan to christopher.beck@maryland.gov Website: www.mde.maryland.gov/ClimateChange
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